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--- In gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "topos8" <topos8@xxxx> wrote:
Last Tuesday, in GG # 22675, I said that the bonds would probably put
in a strong rally from the 113-05 level and move up into the 117-118
range before resuming the bear market down to the longer term target
of 105-107. This forecast was based on the fact that 114 showed up as
strong, square of 9 support and that my price-square time analysis
showed corresponding support just above the 113 level.
In the event the market blew right through these levels that very
day. The fact that we have traded a full three points below 114 for
three days now establishes the 114 level as strong resistance. I no
longer expect any rally from current levels to go much past 114.
Instead it looks like the bonds have to drop all the way to the long
term target of 105-107 and the notes to their corresponding target
range of 109-111 before any multi-week, multi-point rally can begin.
However, my analysis also says that sometime in the next 2-4 years
both these markets will be back at historical highs (historical lows
in interest rates). I fully expect to see the 10 year notes trading
at 1.50% and the long bond trading at 2.50 - 3.00 % at the next
cyclical low in interest rates. That will in all likelihood end the
bull market in bond prices that began in 1981 when the long bond
yielded 15.40%.
Carl
--- End forwarded message ---
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