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Why can’t the <font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial>US<span
> and <font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial>Europe<span
> tolerate this? As of
yet, the exportation of jobs has had no negative effect on the economy. Some
say it’s yet to come, but maybe it never will because it’s actually
beneficial. In order for an economy to expand, there must be a supply of labor.
As these jobs move overseas, there is an increase in the supply of available
workers in the <span
>US<font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial>. When people talk about the exportation of jobs, the never
talk about the importation. Many foreign companies have opened up
factories and services in this country. This is the reason we no longer
talk about Gross National Product. It doesn’t account for foreign owned
businesses operating in the <span
>US<font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial>, but Gross Domestic Product does. The real question is why are
jobs moving overseas? It’s not just cheap labor as most people think. The
overall cost of doing business in those countries is far less. No IRS, EPA,
unions, OSHA, etc. But, I still think the dollar will drop as long as the
Fed continues to pump the economy with dollars.
Trey
<span
>-----Original Message-----
From: EarlA [mailto:earl.a@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Thursday, July 03, 2003 5:50
AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] plausible
scenario....??
<span
>
<span
>China will be forced to revalue quite simply because
the US (and to a lesser<span
>
extent, Europe) can not continue to tolerate
export of manufacturing and
service jobs to Asia. I been writing about this
major threat to the US
economy for years ... never have we been through a
major
recession/depression with a consumption based
economy. Ultimately, the world
will tire of sending us their goods so that we can
send back IOU's
denominated in greenbacks.
China is an economically strong country and
getting stronger. Even though
China is an export oriented economy, as the US
once was, internal
consumption and standards of living are rising
rapidly, particularly in the
urban regions. China's technology and
infrastructure is first rate. For
example, GSH, which I own, runs the kind of high
speed rail passenger
service about which the US only dreams. As a
vibrant, productive economy,
China's currency will ultimately be unable to
maintain the peg to the US$
and the Renmimbi will rise. Major economic change
is evolutionary, not
revolutionary, and I see the change as a major,
long term trend.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Kent Rollins"
<kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, July 02, 2003 6:32 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] plausible scenario....??
> Wait. China will be "forced"
to float their currency to allow it to
> appreciate? Why is that? A few
years ago the thinking was that they were
> going to wait until they were admitted into
the WTO and then let their
> currency tank. Have they turned things
around? My understanding is that
> their dollar peg has been a great boon to
their economy as the dollar has
> declined. The concern is that they are
exporting (at the risk of getting
> Simms over-excited) deflation because their
manufacturing reach is so far
> and wide.
>
> Kent Rollins
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "EarlA"
<earl.a@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, July 02, 2003 6:44 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] plausible scenario....??
>
>
> Question hits the nail on the head! I think
Euro gets 10-20% with the
major
> problem for the Euro being a weakening
European economy. China will be
> forced to float the Renmimbi (50%+-
eventually) ... investing in dividend
> paying Chinese H shares is a major theme of
mine. Asian currencies
generally
> should appreciate against the dollar. So too
should Australia and Canada.
> Don't have an opinion on Central and South
America but they are habitual
> trouble spots so I wouldn't bet money on
them.
>
> The dollar will have a relatively orderly
decline until the credit bubble
> begins unwinding in earnest. The European and
Asian currencies will be a
> (relative) safe haven.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Kent Rollins"
<kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, July 02, 2003 1:41 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] plausible scenario....??
>
>
> > In order for the dollar index to fall,
other currencies have to rise.
> Which
> > other currencies do you think will rise
and by how much?
> >
> > Kent
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "EarlA"
<earl.a@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, July 02, 2003 2:35 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] plausible
scenario....??
> >
> >
> > I think that's an optimistic assumption
but it's on the way.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Norman Winski"
<nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, July 02, 2003 11:20 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] plausible
scenario....??
> >
> >
> > MS,
> >
> > I think that long term, the US
Dollar Index is headed to at least 88
and
> > possibly
> > 78.
> >
> > Regards,
> >
> > Norman
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an
email to:
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> >
> >
> >
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http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
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