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China will be forced to revalue quite simply because the US (and to a lesser
extent, Europe) can not continue to tolerate export of manufacturing and
service jobs to Asia. I been writing about this major threat to the US
economy for years ... never have we been through a major
recession/depression with a consumption based economy. Ultimately, the world
will tire of sending us their goods so that we can send back IOU's
denominated in greenbacks.
China is an economically strong country and getting stronger. Even though
China is an export oriented economy, as the US once was, internal
consumption and standards of living are rising rapidly, particularly in the
urban regions. China's technology and infrastructure is first rate. For
example, GSH, which I own, runs the kind of high speed rail passenger
service about which the US only dreams. As a vibrant, productive economy,
China's currency will ultimately be unable to maintain the peg to the US$
and the Renmimbi will rise. Major economic change is evolutionary, not
revolutionary, and I see the change as a major, long term trend.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Kent Rollins" <kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, July 02, 2003 6:32 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] plausible scenario....??
> Wait. China will be "forced" to float their currency to allow it to
> appreciate? Why is that? A few years ago the thinking was that they were
> going to wait until they were admitted into the WTO and then let their
> currency tank. Have they turned things around? My understanding is that
> their dollar peg has been a great boon to their economy as the dollar has
> declined. The concern is that they are exporting (at the risk of getting
> Simms over-excited) deflation because their manufacturing reach is so far
> and wide.
>
> Kent Rollins
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "EarlA" <earl.a@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, July 02, 2003 6:44 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] plausible scenario....??
>
>
> Question hits the nail on the head! I think Euro gets 10-20% with the
major
> problem for the Euro being a weakening European economy. China will be
> forced to float the Renmimbi (50%+- eventually) ... investing in dividend
> paying Chinese H shares is a major theme of mine. Asian currencies
generally
> should appreciate against the dollar. So too should Australia and Canada.
> Don't have an opinion on Central and South America but they are habitual
> trouble spots so I wouldn't bet money on them.
>
> The dollar will have a relatively orderly decline until the credit bubble
> begins unwinding in earnest. The European and Asian currencies will be a
> (relative) safe haven.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Kent Rollins" <kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, July 02, 2003 1:41 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] plausible scenario....??
>
>
> > In order for the dollar index to fall, other currencies have to rise.
> Which
> > other currencies do you think will rise and by how much?
> >
> > Kent
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "EarlA" <earl.a@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, July 02, 2003 2:35 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] plausible scenario....??
> >
> >
> > I think that's an optimistic assumption but it's on the way.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, July 02, 2003 11:20 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] plausible scenario....??
> >
> >
> > MS,
> >
> > I think that long term, the US Dollar Index is headed to at least 88
and
> > possibly
> > 78.
> >
> > Regards,
> >
> > Norman
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
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>
>
>
>
>
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