|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Can't speak to the current tax proposal and its
trade-offs, but here are some simplistic thoughts:
1) Investments create businesses create
jobs
2) Business and jobs create money velocity
and more investments
3) See 1) above
Any stimulus that helps investments in businesses
is good, because it creates income producing long term assets.
But right now, we are doing two things that do not
address the above. For one thing, we (as in the captains of industry) are
outsourcing our businesses overseas (manufacturing, commodities, services) and
for another, our (as in elected representatives) policies support consumer
income over business investments.
So we are not doing much to create US based
businesses and are using a subsidy from lower interest rates (via HELOCs,
mortgages) as well as tax give backs to create a consumer spending lift.
Much of which is paying for oil and goods that we import from
others.
Not suggesting we change interest rates or tax
policy or free trade ... but definitely suggesting that we should do something
meaningful that makes investment in US industry a better opportunity than
outsourcing.
I think a 3 year horizon will probably see
significant global money flow into countries like India, China, Vietnam,
Thailand, etc.
The good news? We continue to be the world's
largest consumers of stuff. So trade flows have to rely on us and our
(gasp) foreign policy.
----- Original Message -----
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<DIV
>From:
Charles Marchand
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, May 27, 2003 10:08
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Tax Cuts
Kent,
Good points -- tax breaks for R&D, capital spending, etc. are
effectively tax cuts designed to stimulate some part of the
economy. Whether they work or not seems to depend on who you talk
to. Personal tax rates today are lower than the marginal rates of up
to 70% that prevailed for most of the post WWII period (90% briefly
during the Korean War), but we have the Alternative Minimum Tax hitting a
larger number of high income families every
year. The elimination
of taxes on dividends had an immediate impact on the Utilities.
Since money flees taxation, the dividend tax elimination will probably
continue to favorably impact dividend yielding Dow 30 / SnP 500 stocks
while drawing money from the Hope & Glory NAZ. Will this weaken
investment in new US technology? REITS don't participate in the
dividend tax relief. Will this take some air out of real
estate? Will this tax policy draw some widow and orphans'
money from CD's, bonds or T-Bills? What will be the effect on
foreign investment in the U. S. market? Will it be extended beyond
the three year period? I don't have a clue. Ideas
welcomed! BTW -- Ref
the suggestion that if you don't pay taxes, you don't vote -- 30-odd years
ago oilman HL Hunt floated a tongue-in-cheek proposition that the more
taxes you pay, the more votes you should have. He suggested that
people would be falling all over themselves to pay more in
taxes.Charles MarchandAt 01:21 PM 5/27/2003 -0400, you
wrote:>Also, it depends on which taxes are being cut and what their
relative level>is. If taxes are very low (which they are not
today), then tax cuts would>probably result in lower
revenue.>>Kent Rollins>>>----- Original
Message ----->From: "Charles Marchand" <c_r@xxxxxxxxx>>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>Sent: Monday, May 26, 2003 11:29
PM>Subject: Re: [RT] Tax
Cuts>>>Lenny,>>
None of the
above.>>
Tax cuts and resulting governmental income do not happen in
a>vacuum. A, B, C might apply if there were no other
macro-economic factors>at work in the global or national
economy.>>
BTW -- Not interested in spin either.>>Charles
Marchand>>>At 09:43 PM 5/26/2003 -0400, you
wrote:> >Charles,> > Just so I'm
clear on your point of view and for the eyeballing public> > record.
Please respond to the following:> >> >Tax cuts
generate:> >> >A) More revenue to the US
Government.> >B) The same revenue as if there were no cuts.>
>C) Less revenue to the US Government.> >> >Oh, just in
case, please just answer the above question A, B or C. I'm not>
>interested in spin!!> >> >Thanks in advance!>
>Lenny> >> >In a message dated 5/26/2003 9:27:14 PM
Eastern Daylight Time,> >c_r@xxxxxxxxx writes:> >>
>>Can't let this pass -- the Reagan tax cuts have become a mantra
of> >>Republican policy. Fact is the tax cut of 1986 was
accompanied by the> >>collapse of oil prices. In January
'86 prices went from over $25/BO to>$10> >>or
so. The US was using around 16,000,000 BO PER DAY. Do the
math.> >>> >>Charles Marchand> >>
>> >> >Yahoo! Groups Sponsor> ><<A
href="">http://rd.yahoo.com/M=251812.3170658.4537139.1512248/D=egroupweb/S=1705001>779:HM/A=1564416/R=0/*<A
href="">http://www.netflix.com/Default?mqso=60164797&partid=31>70658>b7e91d.jpg>
>> >b7e98b.jpg> >> >To unsubscribe from this
group, send an email to:>
>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >> >>
>> >Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the>
><<A
href="">http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>Yahoo!
Terms of Service.>>>To unsubscribe from this group, send
an email
to:>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>>Your
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to <A
href="">http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>>>>>>To
unsubscribe from this group, send an email
to:>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>>Your
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to <A
href="">http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/To
unsubscribe from this group, send an email
to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxYour
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the <A
href="">Yahoo! Terms of Service.
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
|