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Re: [RT] spx daily



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Bob

At 12:19 PM 5/26/2003 -0400, you wrote:
>He has also stated a commitment to reduce the budget deficit. It remains 
>to be seen how the tax reduction he has argued for would accomplish that. 
>I haven't seen a single analysis that explains how this tax cut will 
>reduce the deficit.
>
>Regards
>DanG
>
>Kent Rollins wrote:
>>How is it inconsistent?  First, he cut taxes.  Then he cut taxes 
>>again.  Seems consistent to me.
>>
>>Kent Rollins
>>
>>
>>----- Original Message -----
>>From: <mailto:TheGonch@xxxxxxxxxxx>Dan Goncharoff
>>To: <mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>Sent: Monday, May 26, 2003 4:47 AM
>>Subject: Re: [RT] spx daily
>>
>>Bush may (or may not) be smart politically, but there is clearly a 
>>difference between his foreign policy team, which incorporates a 
>>diversity of views, and his economic team, where very member of the 
>>original team has quit or been pushed out. Bush seems to be lacking the 
>>economic policy equivalent of Rice, someone who defines a longer-term 
>>consistent message. Until he gets one, I will not trust Bush's policy to 
>>be well thought-out.
>>
>>That to me is the biggest reason to be worried about the future of the US 
>>economy -- a president (or administration) that doesn't understand what 
>>it is doing can cause a lot of damage.
>>
>>Regards
>>DanG
>>
>>Kent Rollins wrote:
>>> >The current economic condition is SYSTEMIC....and thus resistant to 
>>> "Quick fixes".
>>>
>>>Three years of a down economy is not "quick".  And "resistant" is not 
>>>impermeable.
>>>
>>> >Bush fired Laurel and Hardy (O'Neill and Lindsay)  because they told 
>>> him you can't cut taxes, wage expensive war, and continue sponsoring a 
>>> huge, costly bureaucracy in Washington....it's economic suicide in the 
>>> long run.
>>> >That's why he fired them....but THEY were right.
>>>
>>>If O'Neill and Lindsay were in your opinion right, then why do you refer 
>>>to them as Laurel and Hardy.  This is part of your problem, MASSIVE 
>>>Mark.  You are overly critical of everything.  We're either going to 
>>>have MASSIVE inflation or MASSIVE deflation.  You don't care which as 
>>>long as it is MASSIVE and destructive.
>>>
>>> >These deficit projections are just the tip-of-the-iceberg.......and 
>>> incredibly, there is still no talk of government cut-backs in spending 
>>> programs and transfer payments.....just incredible !
>>>
>>>Bush is smart politically.  There was a study done in the late 80's that 
>>>said for every new dollar of tax money brought to the government by 
>>>economic growth, Washington spent $1.30 (or some figure like 
>>>that).  That was the 80's.  I doubt things have changed.  Bush is 
>>>choking of Washington's money supply.  That's the only way to get them 
>>>to reduce spending.  It's the only way PERIOD.  You seem to think that 
>>>these bigger deficits are a problem.  Recently, there was a book 
>>>published that studied the effects of large national debts on 
>>>countries.  England in the 1800's had a national debt that was 300% of 
>>>GDP.  THAT'S MASSIVE, MARK.  A number even you would appreciate.  They 
>>>built up that debt thru wars and empire building.  But it wasn't a 
>>>problem for England.  They paid it off and now they are just fine.
>>>
>>>The only way to make Tiny Daschle say "Well, I guess we don't have money 
>>>for new social-dependency (aka vote-buying) programs." is to put him in 
>>>a deficit position.  What are the Dumocrats really complaining about 
>>>today?  Listen carefully.  They are complaining that they can't enact a 
>>>drug benenfits program (aka social dependency program, aka vote-buying 
>>>program).  They are complaining that they can't make healthcare free for 
>>>everyone.  They don't want to pay down the debt.  They want to take our 
>>>money from us and use it to make us dependent on a social welfare 
>>>State.  Despite the fact that we know socialism and welfare failed...MASSIVELY.
>>>
>>>The only way...THE ONLY WAY...to cut Washington's spending habit is to 
>>>take away their money.  And THAT is exactly what Nucular George is doing.
>>>
>>>Do you see anything in the world today that is going right, MASSIVE 
>>>Mark?  Anything positive?
>>>
>>>Kent Rollins
>>>
>>>
>>>----- Original Message -----
>>>From: <mailto:mar.ko@xxxxxxxxxxx>Mark Simms
>>>To: <mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>Sent: Sunday, May 25, 2003 12:55 AM
>>>Subject: RE: Re[3]: [RT] spx daily
>>>
>>>I'm not thinking MASSIVE here, only LONG-TERM.
>>>Part of my bearishness comes from the current high PE Ratios for 
>>>one....there just seems to be so much ANTICIPATION for a big recovery here...
>>>I don't see it, quite frankly.
>>>Bush fired Laurel and Hardy (O'Neill and Lindsay)  because they told him 
>>>you can't cut taxes, wage expensive war, and continue sponsoring a huge, 
>>>costly bureaucracy in Washington....it's economic suicide in the long run.
>>>Bush did not want to hear this....moreover, he's "dumb"...economically.
>>>That's why he fired them....but THEY were right.
>>>These deficit projections are just the tip-of-the-iceberg.......and 
>>>incredibly, there is still no talk of government cut-backs in spending 
>>>programs and transfer payments.....just incredible !
>>>Unfortunately, Bush may be out of office before this is proven correct.....
>>>
>>>
>>>>-----Original Message-----
>>>>From: Kent Rollins 
>>>>[<mailto:kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>mailto:kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
>>>>Sent: Friday, May 23, 2003 8:16 AM
>>>>To: <mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>>Subject: Re: Re[3]: [RT] spx daily
>>>>
>>>>How can YOU ignore everything besides the tech sector?  If everything 
>>>>but the tech sector has turned the corner on the economy, that sounds 
>>>>like a good thing to me.
>>>>
>>>>With respect to the "derivatives bubble", prove to me that there is 
>>>>one.  This is the first I've heard about it.  Lately, Warren Buffet has 
>>>>been saying a lot of stuff with which I don't agree.
>>>>
>>>>FYI, consumers have been repairing their balance sheets as well.  Sorry 
>>>>I can't remember the numbers on that one either.  It's not as dramatic 
>>>>as the improvements on the corporate side, but it was an improvement.
>>>>
>>>>So you're joining Simms on predicting MASSIVE Great Depression II.
>>>>
>>>>Kent Rollins
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>----- Original Message -----
>>>>From: <mailto:bradcline@xxxxxxxxx>Brad Cline
>>>>To: <mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>>Sent: Friday, May 23, 2003 2:08 AM
>>>>Subject: RE: Re[3]: [RT] spx daily
>>>>
>>>>How can you ignore the tech sector? That's like pro forma accounting. 
>>>>If I didn't have to  make my house payment everything is rosy. The 
>>>>markets have seen their lows only if the derivitivies bubble doesn't 
>>>>burst, or consumer debt doesn't come home to roost. Warren Buffet has 
>>>>said that derivities are a "time bomb" waiting to happen. Maybe the fed 
>>>>will be able to balance everything out over time but I wouldn't bet on it.
>>>>>-----Original Message-----
>>>>>From: Kent Rollins 
>>>>>[<mailto:kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>mailto:kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
>>>>>Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 8:12 PM
>>>>>To: <mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>>>Subject: Re: Re[3]: [RT] spx daily
>>>>>
>>>>>Corporations have been doing balance sheet repair for 2 years 
>>>>>now.  AT&T alone has eliminate over $50 BILLION in debt.  I saw on the 
>>>>>tube last week someone who had a stunning statistic on what the S&P 
>>>>>profits are if you ignore the tech sector.  Wish I could remember what 
>>>>>that statistic was.  And the tech sector will fall in line soon 
>>>>>enough.  You are stuck in a rut.  The markets have seen their 
>>>>>lows.  Shake it off.
>>>>>
>>>>>Kent Rollins
>>>>
>>>>
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