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Or not ;-).... Here's the way someone *might* have drawn Tri's in real time.
I put in some fat red bars that SN3 did break below.
> Frankly, I very rarely will buy a breakout since that's usually the point of
> maximum risk.
Anyway, as I stated, I agree: "Simple vanilla breakouts
are too well known and risky for my blood: even when they work they
tend to get whipsawed a bit first."
--- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "EarlA" <earl.a@xxxx> wrote:
> That's true, however a good breakout will almost never break below the lower
> trendline ... your bean chart is a good example. For most triangles, Arnold
> specifies a stop along a line which bisects the triangle, however that can
> be a bit too tight in choppy markets.
>
> Frankly, I very rarely will buy a breakout since that's usually the point of
> maximum risk. Instead, I will look to buy a retracement and if it doesn't
> retrace, I let it run without me. Every time I get in a run of bad trades, I
> find I've started trading breakouts. I start making money again when I get
> back to buying retracements. Reverse holds true for trading downtrends.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, May 01, 2003 8:44 AM
> Subject: [RT] Re: Triangles- PPS Trading System
>
>
> > Often true, but sometimes there are "false" breakouts and
> > then they take it in the original direction anyway (check the
> > bean chart):
> >
> > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/realtraders/message/22362
> >
> > I guess the point is the best trades can get jerked around
> > a bit before they take off.
> >
> > "It's simple, but it ain't easy."
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "EarlA" <earl.a@xxxx> wrote:
> > > I like to watch the triangles for the false breakouts which the big
> > traders
> > > use to sweep out the stops before reversing to the direction they
> > plan on
> > > taking it. For example, in an ascending triangle in uptrend, they
> > will
> > > almost always break the lower, upsloping trendline by several
> > ticks. If the
> > > break is immediately reversed (Mine Sweeper), then it's a good bet
> > they are
> > > going to take it up fast and entry can usually be made a handle or
> > two above
> > > the low with a stop at the low. Another watch item on this pattern
> > is a
> > > break up through the upper line which falls back through the lower
> > trendline
> > > ... a clear failure pattern which can be traded.
> > >
> > > Earl
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Thursday, May 01, 2003 8:01 AM
> > > Subject: [RT] Re: Triangles- PPS Trading System
> > >
> > >
> > > > > > I think there is a "PPS" software, but I doubt it can get
> > > > > > the whole deal...How
> > > > > > do you code multiple triangles like that?
> > > >
> > > > As I was writing a little voice said: "I bet Clyde's got
> > > > something."
> > > >
> > > > Very nice! Thanks!
> > > >
> > > > Anyway, "PPS" is sort of a system for trading triangles. I read
> > > > the book (may still have it?), but it was a long time ago. And
> > > > I've seen the "system" too. The hard part of coding the *system*
> > > > in my mind is not only finding triangles, but deciding which ones
> > > > to trade, and where and how to trade them. Even Arnold's original
> > > > system wasn't exactly "right." Simple vanilla breakouts
> > > > are too well known and risky for my blood: even when they work
> > they
> > > > tend to get whipsawed a bit first. Nonetheless, I think triangles
> > > > are worth a second look; by their very nature they are range
> > > > contractions and as such can be energy "coils" for the market.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Clyde Lee\(SBCY\)"
> > > > <clydelee@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > Triangles are "simple" but "complex" things.
> > > > >
> > > > > Measures of the validity of a triangle could be the number of
> > > > > bars from base to apex of triangle -- Junk0 & Junk1 use a 250
> > > > > bar criteria while Junk2 uses a 100 bar.
> > > > >
> > > > > Another measure is the difference in the slope of the top and
> > > > > bottom lines. Junk0=1.0, Junk1=0.5, and Junk2=0. But
> > > > > remember, the cutoff for junk2 was 100 bars.
> > > > >
> > > > > Of course the first parameter is the length (in bars) for
> > picking
> > > > > the pivots. In these cases it was 8 bars (see LengthOfSwing for
> > > > > an explanation -- in files area).
> > > > >
> > > > > Thought this might provoke some conversation about what
> > > > > these "straight line" figures represent.
> > > > >
> > > > > If you want to study other symbols let me know and I will
> > > > > publish them.
> > > > >
> > > > > Clyde
> > > > >
> > > > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > > > > Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> > > > > SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxx
> > > > > 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> > > > > Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> > > > > Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
> > > > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx>
> > > > > To: "realtraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, April 30, 2003 11:28 AM
> > > > > Subject: RE: [RT] Triangles- PPS Trading System
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Trey Johnson"
> > > > <dickjohnson3@xxxx>
> > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > Does anyone have the easylanguage code for this?
> > > > > > > Trey
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I think there is a "PPS" software, but I doubt it can get
> > > > > > the whole deal. Check the July Soybean chart attached. How
> > > > > > do you code multiple triangles like that? If anyone's done it,
> > > > > > I'd love to see it.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > BW
> > > > > >
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