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Thankyou for the kind comments and sharp eyes and
mind. Here is an updated chart and some definitions for pivot level
and typical price:
Pivot Level for any timeframe = (H[1]+L[1]+C[1])/3
where [1] = the price for the H or L or C of the Previous Period, whether it be
an intraday bar or previous day or week or month or year.
Typical Price = (H+L+C)/3 of the Current Period's
price bar.
It is advantageous to look at both the Typical
Price and the Pivot Level because the Pivot Level does not update until the end
of the period and then remains constant in the new period, whereas the Typical
Price will give the current reading of the next period's Pivot Level. The
typical price and new pivot level are the same at the end of the period.
On the attached chart the April Typical Price will become the May Pivot.
It also helps to note the previous periods' low in uptrends and high in
downtrends. On this chart price has been in an uptrend so the Lows have
the emphasis for reversal reasons. The idea in this study was to observe
price action during a confluence of multiperiod pivot levels because it
stimulates buying or selling by participants of short/medium/longterm
perspectives. Thus price makes an acceleration up or down depending on
whether it finds support or resistance in this confluence. This is not to
be confused with pivot bars as they are reffered to when a high bar has a
lower high on either side or a low bar has a higher low on either
side.
For the moment, here is where the multiperiod pivot
confluence stands in terms of the price levels:
Daily
pivot =
916.53
Daily typicalprice = 915.6 {notice today's red tick
mark is same price as previous day's red dot}
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Close
= 915.3
Weekly typical price = 912.70 (formed by
HighW(0)+LowW(0)+CloseW(0))/3)
Weekly
pivot =
901.00 (formed by
(HighW(1)+LowW(1)+CloseW(1))/3)
Monthly typicalprice = 894.80 {yellow crosses on
chart are the monthly typical price and on Thursday become the
May Pivot line}
Over the next two days and coming weeks, a trader
should watch where price goes in relationship to the daily pivot in relation to
the weekly pivot in relation to the monthly pivot and to the low of each
previous period. Right now there is a spread of 915.3 - 894.8 = 20.50
points between Wednesday's close and the May monthly pivot. Bulls say
price will rally off of this pivot confluence. Bears say prices will
plunge below the weekly and monthly pivot levels. This week and next do
look to be shaping up as having a significant price zone.
I don't know much about Joe, other than he emailed
me one time years ago on RT when I posted something about his pivot point
channels. A friend loaned me a Duffy video and manual titled
"KeyPoint - The Key to Tomorrow's Market Prices...Today!" There was a
small booklet with it titled "How To Isolate Support and Resistance-Simply and
Effectively".
A second chart shows the Pivot point channels on
various indexes. I find them to do a very decent job of trend trading and
also support/resistance trading in sideways congestive periods, i.e. note how
price behaved at the magenta and dark green bands. You could scalp to your
heart's content with those. You can use the larger time frame channel for
price projections.
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=clayidus@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Dr.Sanjay Lulla
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Cc: <A title=bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">BobR ; <A title=Joeduffy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Joe Duffy ; <A
title=support@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">support@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, April 30, 2003 12:43
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Multiple Period
Pivots
To,
BobR,
<FONT
face=Arial>
I read that Joe Duffy has written a new 14 page book called Bulls Eye trading
where he shows how to identify high probability Support and Resistance
zones,pivot points,pivot point channels,and market symmetry.He discusses his
use of Fibonacci Retracement levels,and also contains some day trading
secrets.
<FONT
face=Arial>
I visited his website <A
href="">http://www.smartedgetrading.com ,
but I found only the Duffy Tradesheet hotline,which is a daily service
specializing in Futures,Options and stock indices.He also has a track record
that shows that he has a pretty good handle on the day to day direction in the
stock market.Plus he also provides Projected High and low numbers for the next
day. However his newsletter contains long term,short term and intermediate
views.
The accuracy
of Joe's Projected High and Projected low is pretty good,but he is not
willing to reveal how they are calculated. According to Duffy " It is
not an exaggeration to say this work has exceeded my expectations. I have
never received as much positive feedback from clients about anything as I have
the Projected High and Projected Low points. The market has turned at the
Projected High or Projected Low within a few ticks about 70% of the time when
these points have been tested.
But BobR I
could not find the Pivot Point channel on that website? Is there any other
website where the software is available,or is it available on the
Tradestation add ons list?Also is there a software available for
calculating the next day's Projected High and Low,as also the expected market
direction for the day.
Please pardon my ignorance,but
what does typical price of current date mean in practical terms.And BobR
Sir,there appears to be a discrepancy to my untrained eye in the Multiple
Pivot Periods email dated Monday April 28th.Under the heading current
observations,point number 3 states that the April monthly pivot is currently
at 887 ( yellow cross),whereas under the heading MULTIPLE PERIOD PIVOT
PERSPECTIVE,you have clearly stated that the yellow cross = typical price of
current month,and the monthly pivot = a yellow dashed line and not a yellow
cross as mentioned in point number 3 under the heading Current
observations.
I am not trying to criticize you,but I am
really confused as to what does the typical price mean in practical terms and
so also the pivot's practical significance.
You also mentioned that" the Duffy pivot
channels on 5 min bars seemed to be capturing price movement and predicting
Support/Resistance beyond chance".You said that "it was as if some influential
players or automatic systems were trading off higher time frame levels",and
also that "there was a consensus of buying back on 4/16 and again on
4/22 as the weekly pivot was a launching pad for rallies".This was an
eye opener for me in trying to understand how the markets
move.
Also I would like to know your
experience with the 5 min Duffy pivot channels.Has it significantly translated
into much higher profits in day trading than before?And how is one supposed to
use the bands for trading -buy when the price touches the lower band and
sell when price touches the upper band?
Also I would like to enquire whether any of Joe
Duffy's seminars on video tape or CD ROM were made,and does anyone have a copy
of a Seminar.Also,it was mentioned on SmartEdgetrading.com that Joe had been a
Trading Teacher for an online trading seminar
in which the real time trading account went from $10k to $70K in
approximately 6 months. Over 700 trades and 78% winning trading
days. <FONT
face="Book Antiqua">"
Is anybody aware
that Joe is going to conduct a similar seminar online again,because he loves
to teach,and you'll see advertisements in Futures Magazine,TASC,and Active
trader about upcoming seminars and I,living in India am not privy to such
information.
I think that with these new Pivot channels and
discovery of accurate Support and Resistance levels,market symmetry and
Projected High and low have greatly enhanced Joe Duffy's repertoire of
intraday trading tools and definitely warrants a seminar to explain it in
detail.
Also,on the smartedgetrading.com site,only Joe Duffy's
newsletter is mentioned. Is there some other site where all of Joe's recent
discoveries is mentioned?Right now the only information on Joe Duffy's new
intraday trading tools was mentioned only in the contents of his new 14 page
book called Bulls Eye trading.
Thanking you for your brilliant deduction
BobR,
Yours sincerely,
Sanjay
Dr.Sanjay Lulla
India
<FONT
face=Arial>
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">BobR
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, April 28, 2003 4:58
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Multiple Period
Pivots
followthrough.... now wouldn't you know they
would split the difference between the daily and weekly pivots! on the first
two tries.
bobr
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">BobR
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, April 27, 2003 8:33
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Multiple Period
Pivots
The previous post used daily data. This
one uses 15 minute bars and has the same daily, weekly, monthly pivots and
typical prices. All the lines were created with the TS built in tool
Custom 1 Line. The formulas are on the chart for those not familiar
with them. I did this little exercise because the Duffy Pivot
Channels on 5 minute bars seemed to be captuing price movement and
predicting support/resistance beyond chance. It was as though some
influential players or automatic systems were trading off higher timeframe
levels. There was a consensus of buying back on 4/16 and again
on 4/22 as the weekly pivot was a launching pad for rallies. Now
here we are facing Monday(Sunday PM) with the SP below the weekly pivot
and daily pivot. If the floor and ceiling theory of
support/resistance holds, then the weekly pivot at 901.1 level should be
resistance. The next higher time frame support is the monthly
typical price at 887.9. That of course is just one scenario.
The SP could work above the weekly and daily pivot again next week at
which time it would become support again.....just something to watch
for.
enjoy,
bobr
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">BobR
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 26, 2003
12:39 PM
Subject: [RT] Multiple Period
Pivots
Decided to check out the concept of confluence of
pivots in different timeperiods, daily, weekly, monthly.
Intraday on Friday the daily pivot was thesell point based on
Thursday's HLC. Friday's close of 898.6 was below theweekly
pivot at 901. Did you notice on Friday there was a lot of
sidewaysmovement below 900 after the AM drop. Wonder if that
had anything to dowith the weekly pivot? The weekly pivot is
above the monthly pivot at887.8. 4/23 had a maximum bullish(or
contrarily bearish) configurationconsidering the relationship of
pivot periods. That was similar to the lowsin Feb and
March. The March 31st low had a confluence of daily weekly
andmonthly before the snp rocketed upward. March 3rd had a
confluence of dailyweekly monthly as it went into sell mode.
The 887.8 April pivot will movelower if the snp close moves lower
since it is composed of the monthly HLC.There is also a lot of price
congestion at the 888 level. That seems to meto be a market
logic place for price to end the month. Also, 890.5 is a
50%retrace of the BC
swing.bobrTo unsubscribe
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