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After all the verbiage, 3/28 was neither high nor low, congestion nor
acceleration. It was one trading early.
--- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx>
wrote:
> So is 3/28 a high or is this an accleration or can you +/- 2 days?
>
>
>
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxx>
wrote:
> > Several people have requested an update of my message regarding
the
> 3/28 forecast date. One of the problems in posting a forecast based
> on Near Impulse Theory is that most recipients will not understand
> the theory or how to use the information. So to help in
understanding
> my message, I will try to give a quick lesson in interpreting the
> Near Impulse forecast. To assist in this analysis I have attached a
> number of forecast figures for different time frames.
> >
> > The first thing we must understand is that market trends and
> reversals exist in all time frames. Gann made reference to "Wheels
> within Wheels", a veiled recognition that market structure is
fractal
> in nature with each higher level element composed of a number of
> lower level elements. That being said, it must also be recognized
> that trend changes of major significance always begin at the lowest
> time frame. Thus a monthly reversal begins with a weekly reversal
and
> a weekly reversal begins with a daily reversal and so on until any
> reversal could be associated with a single tick - the smallest
> fractal element of any market.
> >
> > Analyzing market structure and condition is very much like
peeling
> an onion, that is, looking at the structure layer by layer.
> >
> > An important characteristic of Near Impulse Theory is that it
> models market structure as a nonlinear, dynamic system. Current
> market structure is seen as composed of reactions to previous
> structure, which can be forecast in the time domain, and reactions
to
> new impulses whose occurrence cannot be forecast. Consequently the
> most important analysis is always that of the lowest time frame and
> most recent occurrences since longer term outcomes are subject to
the
> latest developments as well as events and impulses that have not
yet
> happened and cannot be forecast.
> >
> > This is in contrast to many market analyst and contributors to
> these boards using static cycle, astro cycles, astrology or other
> disciplines who believe that significant turning points in time and
> polarity can be forecast well in the future and implying that
market
> events are somewhat predetermined. I simply do not believe that to
be
> true.
> >
> > The Near Impulse Forecaster turning points represent potential
> changes in the psychological sentiment of different populations of
> market participants who already have entered the market with an
> opinion of direction. Simply stated, the theory says that these
> market participants will undergo a series of emotional wave fronts
in
> the future at which time they may alter their market opinion. The
> theory assumes that these psychological highs and lows are a
function
> of a natural mathematical algorithm which allows us to forecast
when
> in the future these participants may again act in the market. We
> cannot, however, determine in advance what the impact of that new
> action will be because it depends on new information (impulses)
that
> have entered the market since the last decision point. We must
> therefore interpret the reaction at these wave fronts based on a
> current market action and structure.
> >
> > From previous analysis we know that three outcomes are possible
at
> these forecasted wave fronts.
> >
> > 1.. The market participants can act to reverse the current
> direction - this occurs about 75% of the time.
> > 2.. The market participants can withdraw from the markets,
> allowing a sideways congestion zone to form. This occurs about 15%
of
> the time.
> > 3.. The market participants can accelerate the current trend -
> this occurs about 10% of the time.
> > So with this quick primer in mind, let's peel the onion.
> >
> > Figure (1) in the attachment presents the monthly chart for the
> NASDAQ market. Note that the January 2002 high pivot occurred
exactly
> on the forecast date. The next forecast date shown is 3/31/03.
Since
> the market was declining into this date, the expected outcome was
for
> a low pivot to form and a new advance to begin. At this point in
> time, a lower low has occurred and the February high has been
> exceeded. This March low will be confirmed as a pivot point if the
> close on Monday, 3/31 is greater than the February high of 1352.07.
A
> monthly close below this number will leave the outcome as uncertain.
> >
> > Figure (2) presents a monthly close of the S$P 500 showing a
> similar structure. A close above the February high of 864.64 will
> confirm the low pivot. The DJIA shows a similar structure although
> the strength of the forecast date is much weaker than those for the
> other two markets.
> >
> > So, on a monthly basis, we are near a confirmed reversal of the 3-
> month downtrend on all three major markets.
> >
> > Going down one level of the onion, Figure (3) presents a weekly
> analysis of the S&P 500. Here we note that the weekly low pivot was
> recorded two weeks ago and the market has advanced into the 3/28
> forecast date. Remember that there are three possible outcomes at a
> forecast line. The market could reverse the weekly up trend. Such a
> reversal would be confirmed by a weekly low close below last week's
> low. And since the close on Friday was very near the weekly low, it
> seems quite possible.
> >
> > The market could also move sideways from this point, trading
within
> the range of last week. Or the market could accelerate it's current
> up trend. Similar weekly structure exists for the DJIA and NASDAQ.
> Since all three markets failed to trade higher than the previous
week
> is high, it suggests a sideways movement is most likely. We will
not
> know until the close on Friday.
> >
> > To peel the onion deeper, we go to a daily analysis. Figure (4)
> shows the S&P 500 daily analysis. Here we see the market declining
> five days from the 3/21 high pivot into the 3/28 forecast date. We
> also note that the retracement from the high has been relatively
> weak. It has taken five days to retrace the last two days of
advance
> into the high. Friday was an inside day with no directional
> information. This is bullish information showing underlying
strength
> in a market during these very uncertain times.
> >
> > It seems clear to me that the market wants to advance, confirming
> the monthly low pivot and continuing the weekly up trend. That
> advance has been delayed by a slowdown in the progress of the war.
I
> believe the most likely outcome for the daily forecast will be an
> advance on Monday. The daily up move may last but a few days,
> however, as there is another set of forecast lines for the 4/2-3
and
> 4/7 time period indicating the possibility of another reversal or
> high volatility with little direction.
> >
> > The other scenario is that negative news over the weekend could
> accelerate the markets down into the 4/2 -3 period. On a longer-
term
> basis, if the war stalls and casualties climb and allies begin to
> fall away, a very bearish scenario could evolve. I believe we are
at
> a possible turning point in the future of our country and economy
and
> that is why I pointed out the importance of this time period in our
> history.
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Jim White
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ;
> immutableinvestors@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; holygrailsm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ;
> gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; cycletrader@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Sent: Saturday, March 15, 2003 12:54 PM
> > Subject: [RT] Importance of 3/28/03
> >
> >
> > I am sending you a special message regarding the importance of
> 3/28/03 to the markets. This message was included in my Daily
> Commentary for Monday, 3/17 however, I believe it is significant
> enough importance for a wider distribution.
> >
> > COMMENTARY
> >
> > Importance of 3/28
> >
> > NOTE: I have expanded the pivot date forecasts to the end of
> March because of the potential importance of these dates. You will
> note that every index and ETF shares a common daily forecast date
of
> 3/28. The importance of this date is emphasized by the fact that on
a
> weekly basis the indexes and ETF's ALSO share a date of 3/28. This
> confluence of forecast dates on a daily and weekly basis rarely
> occurs. Consequently I believe this signifies a major turning point
> in the markets. Since the dominant trend is down, I hope this turns
> out to be a significant low. It could correspond with a termination
> of the war in IRAQ. If, however, the market advances into this date
> with hopes of a peaceful settlement, it could signify a major high
as
> the war breaks out. I bring this to your attention because it is
> important that you begin to prepare for either outcome.
> >
> >
> > Best Regards,
> > Jim White
> > PivotTrader.com
> > Home of the Near Impulse Forecaster
> >
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> >
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> >
> >
> >
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