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So is 3/28 a high or is this an accleration or can you +/- 2 days?
--- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxx> wrote:
> Several people have requested an update of my message regarding the
3/28 forecast date. One of the problems in posting a forecast based
on Near Impulse Theory is that most recipients will not understand
the theory or how to use the information. So to help in understanding
my message, I will try to give a quick lesson in interpreting the
Near Impulse forecast. To assist in this analysis I have attached a
number of forecast figures for different time frames.
>
> The first thing we must understand is that market trends and
reversals exist in all time frames. Gann made reference to "Wheels
within Wheels", a veiled recognition that market structure is fractal
in nature with each higher level element composed of a number of
lower level elements. That being said, it must also be recognized
that trend changes of major significance always begin at the lowest
time frame. Thus a monthly reversal begins with a weekly reversal and
a weekly reversal begins with a daily reversal and so on until any
reversal could be associated with a single tick - the smallest
fractal element of any market.
>
> Analyzing market structure and condition is very much like peeling
an onion, that is, looking at the structure layer by layer.
>
> An important characteristic of Near Impulse Theory is that it
models market structure as a nonlinear, dynamic system. Current
market structure is seen as composed of reactions to previous
structure, which can be forecast in the time domain, and reactions to
new impulses whose occurrence cannot be forecast. Consequently the
most important analysis is always that of the lowest time frame and
most recent occurrences since longer term outcomes are subject to the
latest developments as well as events and impulses that have not yet
happened and cannot be forecast.
>
> This is in contrast to many market analyst and contributors to
these boards using static cycle, astro cycles, astrology or other
disciplines who believe that significant turning points in time and
polarity can be forecast well in the future and implying that market
events are somewhat predetermined. I simply do not believe that to be
true.
>
> The Near Impulse Forecaster turning points represent potential
changes in the psychological sentiment of different populations of
market participants who already have entered the market with an
opinion of direction. Simply stated, the theory says that these
market participants will undergo a series of emotional wave fronts in
the future at which time they may alter their market opinion. The
theory assumes that these psychological highs and lows are a function
of a natural mathematical algorithm which allows us to forecast when
in the future these participants may again act in the market. We
cannot, however, determine in advance what the impact of that new
action will be because it depends on new information (impulses) that
have entered the market since the last decision point. We must
therefore interpret the reaction at these wave fronts based on a
current market action and structure.
>
> From previous analysis we know that three outcomes are possible at
these forecasted wave fronts.
>
> 1.. The market participants can act to reverse the current
direction - this occurs about 75% of the time.
> 2.. The market participants can withdraw from the markets,
allowing a sideways congestion zone to form. This occurs about 15% of
the time.
> 3.. The market participants can accelerate the current trend -
this occurs about 10% of the time.
> So with this quick primer in mind, let's peel the onion.
>
> Figure (1) in the attachment presents the monthly chart for the
NASDAQ market. Note that the January 2002 high pivot occurred exactly
on the forecast date. The next forecast date shown is 3/31/03. Since
the market was declining into this date, the expected outcome was for
a low pivot to form and a new advance to begin. At this point in
time, a lower low has occurred and the February high has been
exceeded. This March low will be confirmed as a pivot point if the
close on Monday, 3/31 is greater than the February high of 1352.07. A
monthly close below this number will leave the outcome as uncertain.
>
> Figure (2) presents a monthly close of the S$P 500 showing a
similar structure. A close above the February high of 864.64 will
confirm the low pivot. The DJIA shows a similar structure although
the strength of the forecast date is much weaker than those for the
other two markets.
>
> So, on a monthly basis, we are near a confirmed reversal of the 3-
month downtrend on all three major markets.
>
> Going down one level of the onion, Figure (3) presents a weekly
analysis of the S&P 500. Here we note that the weekly low pivot was
recorded two weeks ago and the market has advanced into the 3/28
forecast date. Remember that there are three possible outcomes at a
forecast line. The market could reverse the weekly up trend. Such a
reversal would be confirmed by a weekly low close below last week's
low. And since the close on Friday was very near the weekly low, it
seems quite possible.
>
> The market could also move sideways from this point, trading within
the range of last week. Or the market could accelerate it's current
up trend. Similar weekly structure exists for the DJIA and NASDAQ.
Since all three markets failed to trade higher than the previous week
is high, it suggests a sideways movement is most likely. We will not
know until the close on Friday.
>
> To peel the onion deeper, we go to a daily analysis. Figure (4)
shows the S&P 500 daily analysis. Here we see the market declining
five days from the 3/21 high pivot into the 3/28 forecast date. We
also note that the retracement from the high has been relatively
weak. It has taken five days to retrace the last two days of advance
into the high. Friday was an inside day with no directional
information. This is bullish information showing underlying strength
in a market during these very uncertain times.
>
> It seems clear to me that the market wants to advance, confirming
the monthly low pivot and continuing the weekly up trend. That
advance has been delayed by a slowdown in the progress of the war. I
believe the most likely outcome for the daily forecast will be an
advance on Monday. The daily up move may last but a few days,
however, as there is another set of forecast lines for the 4/2-3 and
4/7 time period indicating the possibility of another reversal or
high volatility with little direction.
>
> The other scenario is that negative news over the weekend could
accelerate the markets down into the 4/2 -3 period. On a longer-term
basis, if the war stalls and casualties climb and allies begin to
fall away, a very bearish scenario could evolve. I believe we are at
a possible turning point in the future of our country and economy and
that is why I pointed out the importance of this time period in our
history.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Jim White
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ;
immutableinvestors@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; holygrailsm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ;
gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; cycletrader@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Saturday, March 15, 2003 12:54 PM
> Subject: [RT] Importance of 3/28/03
>
>
> I am sending you a special message regarding the importance of
3/28/03 to the markets. This message was included in my Daily
Commentary for Monday, 3/17 however, I believe it is significant
enough importance for a wider distribution.
>
> COMMENTARY
>
> Importance of 3/28
>
> NOTE: I have expanded the pivot date forecasts to the end of
March because of the potential importance of these dates. You will
note that every index and ETF shares a common daily forecast date of
3/28. The importance of this date is emphasized by the fact that on a
weekly basis the indexes and ETF's ALSO share a date of 3/28. This
confluence of forecast dates on a daily and weekly basis rarely
occurs. Consequently I believe this signifies a major turning point
in the markets. Since the dominant trend is down, I hope this turns
out to be a significant low. It could correspond with a termination
of the war in IRAQ. If, however, the market advances into this date
with hopes of a peaceful settlement, it could signify a major high as
the war breaks out. I bring this to your attention because it is
important that you begin to prepare for either outcome.
>
>
> Best Regards,
> Jim White
> PivotTrader.com
> Home of the Near Impulse Forecaster
>
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