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--- In gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "topos8" <topos8@xxxx> wrote:
In GG#19037 (January 2, 2003) I posted an interpretation of the stock
market situation in based on the methods of George Lindsay. In this
message I want to update that forecast and make some comments about
the bond market too.
My interpretation of Lindsay's methods indicated that a bear market
low had formed in October 2002 and that a new bull market had begun.
A bull market top was to be expected for sometime in 2005.
Meantime, the decline from the S&P top at 954 on December 2, 2002 was
expected to end at a low above the 767 October low. Using Lindsay's
method of counting days in basic declines I came up with January7,
February 7, or February 25 as the most probable dates for the end of
the drop from 954.
My analysis now is that the low established on March 12 ended the
drop from the 954 top and that the subsequent rally will carry the
market up substantially from current levels. Counting forward 26 to
32 months ( a long or extended basic advance) from March 12 we find a
bull market high likely sometime between May and November of 2005.
Counting a long or extended basic advance from the September 21, 2001
low gives us November, 2003 to May, 2004 as a time window for the end
of the rally phase which began at the March 12, low. Note that in my
January 2 message I pointed to two astronomical timing indicators
which suggest that November 2003 will be a turning point of some
importance.
How far might the rally from the March 12 low carry? Lindsay's timing
methods don't help us here. But he used some graphical methods which
allow us to make an educated guess.
I see an emerging foldback pattern in the S&P 500. The center line,
or line of symmetry is found at the October 10 low of 767. Using this
symmetry the July 2002 low at 775 is paired off with the March 2003
low at 788. If this foldback pattern continues to develop the market
should now rally to the level of the top of the big rally which
preceeded the drop into the July 2002 low. This is the 1178 level
which was reached in March of 2002.
After 1178 is reached the foldback pattern would then call for a drop
to the 940 level (mid 2004 ?) and then a rally to 1320 (mid 2005).
This last rally would complete the bull market and then we would
expect a drop to 600 in the S&P.
Last week the bond market made a double top against its October 2002
top. At this juncture my price-time squaring methods are saying that
the bond futures are headed for 105 with 101 as an outside
possibility.
Carl
--- End forwarded message ---
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