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All,
Interesting commentary by Don Worden (Telechart 2000), where I get my EOD
Data to import into Trade Station 2000i for those William Blau !!! Ergodic
indicators I paid for a long time ago. Having trouble with "notmail"
sending messages to the group.
Regards,
Russ
The Worden Report (Thursday, March 20, 2003)
Kibitzing
This entire situation has a weird feel to it. We had a little of it in the
Gulf War, but nothing like this. We sit and watch a war on live TV. Market
players sit on the sidelines before personal computers, kibitzing and
betting. The leaders of the principal adversaries stand up and make
statements to the world. The U. S. President drops a remark that the war may
last longer than some people are thinking, and the market responds to the
tune of over 100 points. Putin throws out an insult or two and the market
shudders. It's like the old days in the boardrooms, where a lot of old
codgers would gather every day and make side-bets with one another. “I got
two bits that says GM hits 50 before 40!”
I can't help thinking of how many people, including members of congress and
Abraham Lincoln himself, rode out to watch the battle of Bull Run - which
they believed would lead to a quick, clean victory. I think it was there
that a young officer named Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr. saved Lincoln's life
by pulling him physically out of harm's way. The battle didn't end the war,
of course, but ushered in four years of violence and more American deaths
that occurred in any war before or since.
At least it isn't dangerous to sit in front of the TV, where you can drink
beer and watch the real war and the propaganda war simultaneously. If you
have a computer, you can bet your convictions in the market. You can weigh
the discounting value of, say, two extra weeks of warfare. You can assess
the probability that it was really Saddam who spoke on TV last night and
convert that into, say, the number of points a wringer is worth in the QQQ.
The PE is giving way to the PSA (price divided by the shock and awe of
battle). For guidance you have a host of retired officers - everything from
generals down to light colonels - smiling confidently right there on your
screen. -DW
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