|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Sent: Monday, February 24, 2003 3:27 PM
Subject: 02/24 3:27P (RT) UPDATE 1-Economists trim U.S. growth forecasts -
Fed survey
> 02/24 3:27P (RT) UPDATE 1-Economists trim U.S. growth forecasts - Fed
> survey
> Story 3103 (I/NEWS, I/US, I/ECI, I/MCE, I/DBT, I/FED, I/CEN, I/MMT...)
> (adds comments from Fed economist)
> NEW YORK, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Private-sector economists have
> cut their U.S. growth forecasts for this quarter and trimmed
> them for the whole of 2003, after a recent slowdown in growth,
> a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia survey said on Monday.
> Economists pared their estimates for first quarter growth
> to 2.2 percent annualized from 2.6 percent in the previous
> survey, taken last quarter. They expect annualized real gross
> domestic product to rise a modest 2.5 percent for all of this
> year, down from the previous estimate of 2.6 percent, the bank
> said in its quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters.
> Philadelphia Fed economist Dean Croushore said most of the
> downgrades were made because growth in the fourth quarter of
> last year came in well below expectations, at 0.7 percent
> compared with the 1.3 percent anticipated by the economists
> surveyed.
> Forecasters did see growth steadily accelerating to reach
> 3.6 percent in the last quarter of this year, though again that
> was down on previous estimates of 4.2 percent.
> Croushore said most expectations of a pick-up in the second
> half of the year hinged on a resolution to a likely U.S. war on
> Iraq.
> "The forecasters see some resolution of uncertainty coming,
> and think things will start to get back to normal in the second
> half of the year," Croushore told Reuters.
> He said anxiety about war and terror risks was most evident
> in a separate question about the likelihood of a contraction in
> the economy. Forecasters saw a 20 percent chance of a negative
> quarter of GDP in the first half of this year, little changed
> from the previous survey.
> "If that uncertainty gets resolved, you'll see that number
> drop a lot," Croushore said.
> Actual annualized GDP growth stood at a meager 0.7 percent
> last quarter, though analysts expect that to be revised up
> slightly to 1.0 percent when the second estimate of the figures
> is released later this week.
> Economists also predicted the unemployment rate would fall
> from 6.0 percent in the first half of this year to 5.7 percent
> by year-end, and to average 5.9 percent for 2003 as a whole.
> The forecasters saw little reason to change their
> expectations for subdued inflation this year. Consumer price
> inflation was seen averaging 2.2 percent over 2003, the same as
> last year.
> Economists did expect interest rates to rise as growth
> picks up later in the year. The yield on the 10-year Treasury
> note is seen rising to 4.6 percent by year end from its present
> 3.86 percent. Since many mortgage rates are tied to this yield,
> such an increase could put a dampener on the booming housing
> market.
> The survey covers 37 private sector economists from groups
> as diverse as Lehman Brothers, the National Association of Home
> Builders and Georgia State University.
> (additional reporting by Victoria Thieberger)
>
> ((Reporting by Wayne Cole, and Victoria Thieberger; editing by
> James Dalgleish; Reuters Messaging:
> wayne.cole.reuters.com@xxxxxxxxxxx; phone 646-223-6278))
> REUTERS
> Rtr 15:27 02-24-03
> Additional Codes ( I/WASH, I/MTG, I/INT, I/GVD)
>
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|