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Okay, first of all, way too touchy. I said what you and Bruce said (Hurst
ain't predictive) and you're jumping all over me for it.
Second of all,
>We tend to show the "projections" well past where they really
>should end simply as an illustration.
an illustration of...what? What is the purpose of plotting a line into "the
future" on a chart? Not to illustrate for the sake of illustration. Maybe
I misunderstand the point of the lines plotted into the future.
Third of all, how many times has a Hurst/MEM analysis been posted on this
list when the price action was not outside of the price bands but the bands
in the future were turning up or down with a caption to the effect of "Hurst
says a bottom/top may be in."
Kent
----- Original Message -----
From: "Clyde Lee(SBCY)" <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, February 04, 2003 11:02 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: ES 1x3 P&F
How many times and how many ways do I have to say that what is
being done is to try to estimate just where the Hurst Centered Moving
Average would be on any given day
AND to determine just where prices are relative to that CMA.
We tend to show the "projections" well past where they really should
end simply as an illustration.
Whole point is to examine these data on a day by day basis and
look for the LOW RISK trading points to enter/exit the market.
The purpose here is NOT to predict what prices will be, just to
try to give a measure against which to determine if prices have
moved well out of what could be expected.
WHAT DO I HAVE TO DO TO GET THIS POINT ACROSS ? ? ? ?
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
----- Original Message -----
From: "Kent Rollins" <kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, February 04, 2003 9:55 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: ES 1x3 P&F
> Reminds me of a quote I saw on Decision Point a few years back.
>
> "Fish gotta swim, birds gotta fly, oscillators gotta oscillate."
>
> Now we can add to that: cycles gotta cycle. Don't mean it's predictin'
> nothin'.
>
> Kent
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Clyde Lee(SBCY)" <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, February 04, 2003 10:46 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: ES 1x3 P&F
>
>
> Yes that is very typical.
>
> The projection of the Hurst Channel is based on the best estimate
> that we have from the current cycles that we see. Most of the
> time we do NOT see the correct cycles until after some time has
> elapsed so there is a tendency for there to be a searching for both
> tops and bottoms. Don't we all ? ? ? ?
>
> The attached shows the MEM analyses for June1, July1, and Aug 1
> of 2002. It is quite clear that in June, the length that we thought
> best for CMA computation was a lot shorter than it was in
> August.
>
> However, in all cases if we had observed the LOW RISK TRADE
> philosophy and waited for prices to be below the lower channel
> line and then reenter the channel we would not have missed
> very much of the move (if any).
>
> But,
>
> Clyde
>
>
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, February 04, 2003 9:13 PM
> Subject: [RT] Re: ES 1x3 P&F
>
>
> > Was't that Hurst looking for a low from the end of June all the way
> > to the 7/24 low last year?
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