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Dear Stan,
I was delighted to see your post...I fully believe a new Bull is in
place and will have many corrections...not the least of which will be
geopolitical movements.
Sincerely,
Joh
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: "Stan Book" <sbook@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [RT] DJIA - the next 4 years (NAZ)
Date: 01/28/2003 08:10am
Absolutely, Richard. I used DJIA only because we have data going back
more
than a century.
Have you noticed that the dead cat NASDAQ has bounced up out of its
death
spiral (channel). The bounce exceeded AUG '02 top. I wouldn't bet the
farm
on OCT lows being violated.
My little berry patch is committed to the proposition that the Oct
lows mark
the end of the final 4YR cycle of the first 20 year segment of a 40YR
cycle.
Even if this proves to be a normal 40YR cycle (no right translation)
and the
trend for the next 20 years is down (no support from advancing longer
term
cycles), the first leg of the new 4YR cycle 'will' be UP.
------Unless, of cource, "things are different this time."
If you check out the 80 years of DJIA history posted, the 20 year
advance
from '80 - '00 is steeper than the advance from '20 - '40. This may
represent an acceleration of much longer term trends, OR the '00 top
may
represent the terminal parabolic spike reversal of the great 20th
century
bull market.
Pick your poison.
--Stan
----- Original Message -----
From: <kjonec@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, January 28, 2003 12:34 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] DJIA - the next 4 years
> Wouldn't it be more appropriate to compare the Naz 00 top to the
DJIA top
of
> 29 as at that time the DJIA was predominately compiled of new
economy type
> stocks of the era?
>
> The Naz has seen the excessive blow off which is typical of a bubble
> formation parabolic rise etc.
> >>>
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