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If we do eventually hold around the October lows,
and most indicators confirm, we would have a tremendous move up. The shorts
would be covering and the sideline money would be jumping in to go long.
Extreme heavy volume as those lows are approached would be one of
the confirming indicators that a strong turn up would be
underway.
al Message -----
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
<DIV
>From:
BobsKC
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, January 27, 2003 9:23
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] NDX_60m
I agree that we will test the Oct low except I think it will
hold. (More or less, of course). PE's are a lot closer to
reality than they were and so are expectations. The economy is also back
to reality. I don't think it''s nearly as sick as many do, it's just
landed on terra firma again. We flew up, we flew down and now, (after
completing this technically required retest), we can crawl back upward
alongside realized increases in earnings rather than "pie in the sky
dreams". Finally, we'll suck all the amateurs back in and then pull the
plug. And so it goes and so it has gone.BobAt 08:29 PM
1/27/2003 -0500, you wrote:
Forgot to
mention that the outcome, even if we have short term rally, will be to
the downside Below the lows of last Oct. <FONT face=arial
size=2>Dom
----- Original Message -----
From: Dom Perrino
To: <A
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, January 27, 2003 8:18 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] NDX_60m
Hi,
My crystal ball agrees with your
scenario 100%.
Dom
----- Original Message -----
From: victoria
keeling
To: <A
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, January 27, 2003 5:53 PM
Subject: [RT] NDX_60m
okay, it's a wrap...will support hold? two guys I respect a lot [larry
pesavento and bob carver] are both very bullish as of today...while I am
not sold yet, I have to concede that this game is always full of
surprises. a final thrust up would likely catch the most traders with
their pants down...and that being the biggest joke the mkt likes to play,
it could very well happen. but first things first...in spite of all the
super-duper techniques we have to forecast direction, price always has the
final word...and what it's saying right now is not decisive, either
way...teetering on the precipice as it is.
the attached chart shows my bottom-line litmus test and it is a simple
one...a swing low printed on the hourly chart today (actually printed in
the first hour and then dropped lower still as the day progressed!)
must be confirmed...and it ain't happened yet! I want to see the
RSI up--straight as an arrow--to convince me that we really have this
swing low in place. it simply does not fail if we're gonna get more that a
25-30 pt move.....which is fine, but I'm not daytrading right now so I'm
personally looking for a more sustainable move.
a final note: the mkt has been reacting to war drums for the past 2
weeks...even if GW says he's going in personally to off sadam, we could
get a small relief rally this week, just because the tension will
break...that's all I can forsee in the bullish scenario--the possibility
of higher prices from which to go short!
anyway...blah-blah-blah...here's the chart...
V
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