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I agree that we will test the Oct low except I think it will hold.
(More or less, of course). PE's are a lot closer to reality
than they were and so are expectations. The economy is also back to
reality. I don't think it''s nearly as sick as many do, it's just
landed on terra firma again. We flew up, we flew down and now,
(after completing this technically required retest), we can crawl back
upward alongside realized increases in earnings rather than "pie in
the sky dreams". Finally, we'll suck all the amateurs back in
and then pull the plug. And so it goes and so it has
gone.
Bob
At 08:29 PM 1/27/2003 -0500, you wrote:
Forgot to
mention that the outcome, even if we have short term rally, will be
to the downside Below the lows of last Oct.
Dom
----- Original Message -----
From: Dom Perrino
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, January 27, 2003 8:18 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] NDX_60m
Hi,
My crystal ball agrees with your scenario 100%.
Dom
----- Original Message -----
From: victoria keeling
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, January 27, 2003 5:53 PM
Subject: [RT] NDX_60m
okay, it's a wrap...will support hold? two guys I respect a lot [larry pesavento and bob carver] are both very bullish as of today...while I am not sold yet, I have to concede that this game is always full of surprises. a final thrust up would likely catch the most traders with their pants down...and that being the biggest joke the mkt likes to play, it could very well happen. but first things first...in spite of all the super-duper techniques we have to forecast direction, price always has the final word...and what it's saying right now is not decisive, either way...teetering on the precipice as it is.
the attached chart shows my bottom-line litmus test and it is a simple one...a swing low printed on the hourly chart today (actually printed in the first hour and then dropped lower still as the day progressed!) must be confirmed...and it ain't happened yet! I want to see the RSI up--straight as an arrow--to convince me that we really have this swing low in place. it simply does not fail if we're gonna get more that a 25-30 pt move.....which is fine, but I'm not daytrading right now so I'm personally looking for a more sustainable move.
a final note: the mkt has been reacting to war drums for the past 2 weeks...even if GW says he's going in personally to off sadam, we could get a small relief rally this week, just because the tension will break...that's all I can forsee in the bullish scenario--the possibility of higher prices from which to go short!
anyway...blah-blah-blah...here's the chart...
V
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