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Dear Victoria,
I have a secret, just kidding you of course,
this is another bob who is a bob carver fan. Attached is a chart of his
OEX$C/$P ratio that he uses as a contrary indicator for oversold and
overbought. The general story is the ratio needs two days below 0.5 to be
a bullish setup, doesn't mean the OEX is going to rally tomorrow. Likewise
when the ratio is above 2.0 for two days a bearish setup is created.
Looking back over the history of this indicator, a reading of 0.5 or less can
exist for many consecutive days as the OEX goes into a tailspin. It is at
a "critical juncture" as one prominant analyst flooded the email boxes with last
week. Also attached is one of my charts posted here before that uses the
amex, cboe, phlx, pse dollar calls and dollar puts on a realtime basis.
Note that the cboe ratio(yellow line) was hugging the 0.25 level most of the
day. That too is a pretty good setup for a price trend reversal, unless of
course a crash mode is ineffect as it could very well be. Story on the
street today is that the huge open interest in puts is for the real purpose of
facilitating massive liquidation of stocks without destroying the stock
investment due to price erosion. There are a few times a year when massive
open interest in puts doesn't disappear until its been fully capitalized
on.
love, love this mkt that is,
bobr
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=thegirlisherenow@xxxxxxxxx
href="">victoria keeling
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, January 27, 2003 2:53
PM
Subject: [RT] NDX_60m
okay, it's a wrap...will support hold? two guys I respect a lot [larry
pesavento and bob carver] are both very bullish as of today...while I am not
sold yet, I have to concede that this game is always full of surprises. a
final thrust up would likely catch the most traders with their pants
down...and that being the biggest joke the mkt likes to play, it could very
well happen. but first things first...in spite of all the super-duper
techniques we have to forecast direction, price always has the final
word...and what it's saying right now is not decisive, either way...teetering
on the precipice as it is.
the attached chart shows my bottom-line litmus test and it is a simple
one...a swing low printed on the hourly chart today (actually printed in the
first hour and then dropped lower still as the day progressed!) must
be confirmed...and it ain't happened yet! I want to see the RSI
up--straight as an arrow--to convince me that we really have this swing
low in place. it simply does not fail if we're gonna get more that a 25-30 pt
move.....which is fine, but I'm not daytrading right now so I'm
personally looking for a more sustainable move.
a final note: the mkt has been reacting to war drums for the past 2
weeks...even if GW says he's going in personally to off sadam, we could get a
small relief rally this week, just because the tension will break...that's all
I can forsee in the bullish scenario--the possibility of higher prices from
which to go short!
anyway...blah-blah-blah...here's the chart...
V
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