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Dear Ira,
Yes it is opinions that make a horse race but some are more educated
opinions than others...mudders and all that. Clyde usually expects
his readers to know both sides of that coin, correctly so.
Now here is one for you. I have read many "experts" regarding options
and the prevailing wisdom appears to be that the seller of the option
is the one who usually makes the money...forget about protection for
now. The questions:
1.Are we talking about the market maker in this scenario? If so when
he sells to me at the bid, he should not lose because he likely takes
an edge on his sell side.
2. When I sell to the market maker, I believe that I have the edge
because of the scenarios I pick...out of the money, low PE's, low
beta,certain lows not being taken out with bad news, chart bottom,
time decay of option all of which are in my favor when selling
uncovered Puts. Plus I can buy my way out of disasters.
3. When selling uncovered calls, which I have just instituted on a
larger scale, I am now looking at out of the money, low betas, highs
not taken out in 2 to 5 years and high PE's along with chart
agreement, etc above. My goal will be to balance my Put and Call book
but not on the same equity.
4. Ay any point, I can also take a profit prior to expiration...which
I have done.
4. It is impossible to lose selling a covered call above the price
you paid for the stock.
I learned these techniques from a cattle feeder trader who sells out
of the money options and makes his money by keeping the premium with
expiration. He loses about one in one hundred.It just took me a while
to paper trade for a year to see that ratio of losses to wins would
be with stock options.
I am finding that the opportunities abound in this field and it does
not fly in the face of conventional wisdom as I once thought...times
change as do strategies. I find for every hour I spend on researching
these scenarios that I can put on from $500 to $1000 worth of options
per day. I have been careful not to go at that pace yet...but it is
out there. So my new game plan is that for every uncovered put I sell
I will also try to sell one uncovered call...and to extend to $5000
per month premium vs $3000 to $4000.
I consider you the Maestro and welcome any comments, scathing or
otherwise.
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: "ira" <mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [RT] ClydeTime projections
Date: 01/04/2003 09:07pm
This is very good but can you tell me whether that low will be 100
points
higher or lower then where we are today or at exactly the same level
as we
are today. A low is just a point that is lower the previous bar
and the
following bar. The point that I am trying to make is if there is a
500
point rally and it backs off 200 points you have low, but you are
still 300
points above where you are now. Trade what the chart and your
system tell
you and let the low come. It could be a 400 point drop on the last
day of
the cycle.
----- Original Message -----
From: <SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx>
To: <REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, January 04, 2003 6:06 PM
Subject: [RT] ClydeTime projections
> Rt.,
> here is my observation with few traders after interview with Arch
Crawford
> on CNBC when he named mid February as a baaaaad date for stocks. As
Clyde
Lee
> has strong date for Feb 14th
>
> slawek
>
> >Did not listen but apparently he said baaaad date mid February.
>
> I found from cycles good relation for Mid Feb low.
>
> first US dollar has low on intermediate medium & long term cycles,
>
> then applying James Brock Of Triad & Puetz 25.8 month cycle
> (all weekly dates)
>
> 12/23/2000 low + 25.8 months = Feb 15 2003
>
> 10/10/98 low + 51.6 months (2X25.6) = 2-01-03
>
> 9-6-96 low + 77.4 (3X25.6) = 2-15-03
>
> 7-2-94 low + 103.2 (4X25.6) = 2-15-03
>
>
> 9-22-01 low + 16.8 month (16 month cycle) = 2-15-03
>
> 5-11-02 low + 9.2 months (9 months cycle) = 2-15-03
>
> there is short term cycle running 27 to 32 trading days from low to
low
>
> last 11-13-02 low + 32 = 12-31-02 low + 32 trading days = 2-14 -03
low
>
> all points its should be a low
> if we use last trading cycle low on 11-13 to top 12-2 & repeat on
this
cycle,
> then expect top around 1-17-03 before we start going down to mid
Feb date
>
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>
>
>
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>
>
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