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This is a touchy area and if we are to recommend a firm, it is imperative
that you have no personal interest in the company. No friend
running the company. No finders fee for new business. No
nothing other than they have worked our poorly or well for you
personally.
Bob
At 07:53 PM 11/7/2002 -0500, you wrote:
In the
same idea as the recent calls to exact trades and the reasons behind
them, could we also start a thread that people share any courses,
software or services that have been hepful to their development as
traders. The posts rgarding Wolfe Waves were very helpful to me and
pointed me in a new and productive direction. To start I will say that a
friend has had a good experience with a recommendation service called
www.profitsrun.com . They just
give calls but he did make money in his first 2 months with them. More
than I can say for most.
Sean
----- Original Message -----
From: John Cappello
To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, November 07, 2002 7:35 PM
Subject: [RT] Fwd: Trade Recommendation: March Soybean Ratio Write
Norm,
You are right and they later bought Puts as protection. However they
did the trades first and added the Puts later.
I trust you know your stuff from what I have seen of you. If you say
the initial ratio is out of whack, that is enough for me. I am better
off doing what I know and understand.
So I am really not sure of these guys now and Mano apparently has
info on them and wants to talk to me about it.
Regardless, it is a no go for me now. Anything good at your end?
Many thanks for taking the time to respond to this.
Sincerely,
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [RT] Fwd: Trade Recommendation: March Soybean Ratio Write
Date: 11/07/2002 02:53pm
JC,
Is this a 5 to 1 ratio write? Am I reading this right? That is very
aggressive!! They may like the odds
of Soybeans not breaking 625, but those odds better be less than 5%
for this
to make any sense on a risk reward basis. When I was active in
options, my
rule of thumb was if a 2 to 1 ratio write didn't cover a wide range of
exposue, the premium was too low and I would skip it. I would never do
anything greater than perhaps 2.5 to 1 and then that only rarely. I
would
think of 5 to 1 as a 2 to 1 position with an additional naked
shorts. Do
you want to be naked short calls in Soybeans?
Regards,
Norman
----- Original Message -----
From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
To: <Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, November 07, 2002 12:15 PM
Subject: [RT] Fwd: Trade Recommendation: March Soybean Ratio Write
>
> To Lists:
>
> Below is a Spread Trade. Does anyone have experience dealing with
> this firm. Allegedly 75% winners but means nothing if the 25% losers
> exceed that. I am considering a small account with them.
>
> Selling naked Puts will still be my main thrust since I can limit my
> downside by buying back the Put at a set stop loss or take in the
> stock if I really like the company.
>
> John
>
>
>
> ------------------ Forward Header --------------------
> Originally From: admin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Trade Recommendation: March Soybean Ratio Write
> Date: 11/05/2002 02:35pm
> Received: from solomon.simonweb.com (solomon.simonweb.com
> [66.136.122.6]) by tom.po.com (8.12.2/8.12.2) with ESMTP id
> gA5LaTXF014303 for <JVC689@xxxxxxx>; Tue, 5 Nov 2002 16:36:29 -0500
> (EST)
> Received: (from jsumma@xxxxxxxxx) by solomon.simonweb.com
> (8.11.1/8.11.1) id gA5LZ7e26599; Tue, 5 Nov 2002 14:35:07 -0700
>
>
> MARKET: March Soybeans
> TRADE: March Ratio Write
> FILL REPORT:
> Bought 2 March Soybeans futures at $5.60 1/4
> Sold 10 March Soybean $6.40 calls for 7 1/4 cents ($362.50) each
> ENTRY DATE: October 31
> CREDIT AT OPEN: Collected $3,625 in premium for the options
> INITIAL MARGIN: $3,000
> EXPIRATION DATE: The options expire on February 22, 2003
> COMMENT AT OPEN: This trade is a standard ratio write. We are
selling
> 10 March $6.40 calls and going long 2 futures contracts. Based on
the
> current futures volatility level of 20 the options are overvalued.
> This allows us to initially collect $3,625 in premium while the
> initial margin for this trade is only $3,000. Just a reminder,
> though, that the initial margin requirement for this trade can
change
> significantly through the life of the trade.
> ADDITIONAL COMMENT:
> There are a number of reasons that we like this trade in soybeans at
> this time of year. The tendency is for the volatility in soybeans to
> fall as the US harvest is completed and we head into the winter
> months. If this trend continues it bodes well for options to lose
> value. Additionally, the statistics show that soybeans rarely break
> their summer highs in the November-February time frame. This past
> summer the high for soybeans was approximately $6.25 which is still
> 15 cents below the strike price of $6.40. Only twice in the last 14
> years has soybeans broken the previous summer's high price in the
> November-February time frame. None of this means that it can't break
> $6.25 this winter, but we like these odds. By the way, based on
> the expiration and assuming we make no adjustments to this trade our
> upside break even level is approximately $6.68. On the downside of
> soybeans we might make an adjustment to the trade in the next few
> weeks to limit our downside exposure. As it stands now, with no
> adjustments the downside break-even on this trade is approximately
> $5.25.
>
> There is risk of loss trading options and futures. Trade with risk
> capital only. If you would like to speak to us about trading options
> on futures, call 1-800-972-3343 and ask for Jon Lubow.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
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