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In the same idea as the recent calls to exact
trades and the reasons behind them, could we also start a thread that people
share any courses, software or services that have been hepful to their
development as traders. The posts rgarding Wolfe Waves were very helpful to me
and pointed me in a new and productive direction. To start I will say that a
friend has had a good experience with a recommendation service called <A
href="http://www.profitsrun.com";>www.profitsrun.com . They just give calls
but he did make money in his first 2 months with them. More than I can say for
most.
Sean
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
John Cappello
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, November 07, 2002 7:35
PM
Subject: [RT] Fwd: Trade Recommendation:
March Soybean Ratio Write
Norm,You are right and they later bought Puts as
protection. However they did the trades first and added the Puts
later.I trust you know your stuff from what I have seen of you. If you
say the initial ratio is out of whack, that is enough for me. I am better
off doing what I know and understand.So I am really not sure of
these guys now and Mano apparently has info on them and wants to talk to
me about it.Regardless, it is a no go for me now. Anything good at
your end?Many thanks for taking the time to respond to
this.Sincerely,John------------------ Reply
Separator --------------------Originally From: "Norman Winski"
<nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Subject: Re: [RT] Fwd: Trade
Recommendation: March Soybean Ratio WriteDate: 11/07/2002
02:53pmJC,Is this a 5 to 1 ratio write? Am I reading
this right? That is veryaggressive!! They may like the
oddsof Soybeans not breaking 625, but those odds better be less than 5%
for thisto make any sense on a risk reward basis. When I was
active in options, myrule of thumb was if a 2 to 1 ratio write didn't
cover a wide range ofexposue, the premium was too low and I would skip it.
I would never doanything greater than perhaps 2.5 to 1 and then that only
rarely. I wouldthink of 5 to 1 as a 2 to 1 position with an
additional naked shorts. Doyou want to be naked short calls in
Soybeans?Regards,Norman----- Original Message
-----From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>To:
<Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Cc:
<MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Thursday, November 07, 2002 12:15
PMSubject: [RT] Fwd: Trade Recommendation: March Soybean Ratio
Write>> To Lists:>> Below is a Spread
Trade. Does anyone have experience dealing with> this firm. Allegedly
75% winners but means nothing if the 25% losers> exceed that. I am
considering a small account with them.>> Selling naked Puts will
still be my main thrust since I can limit my> downside by buying back
the Put at a set stop loss or take in the> stock if I really like the
company.>> John>>>>
------------------ Forward Header --------------------> Originally
From: admin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> Subject: Trade Recommendation: March
Soybean Ratio Write> Date: 11/05/2002 02:35pm> Received:
from solomon.simonweb.com (solomon.simonweb.com> [66.136.122.6]) by
tom.po.com (8.12.2/8.12.2) with ESMTP id> gA5LaTXF014303 for
<JVC689@xxxxxxx>; Tue, 5 Nov 2002 16:36:29 -0500> (EST)>
Received: (from jsumma@xxxxxxxxx) by solomon.simonweb.com>
(8.11.1/8.11.1) id gA5LZ7e26599; Tue, 5 Nov 2002 14:35:07
-0700>>> MARKET: March Soybeans> TRADE: March
Ratio Write> FILL REPORT:> Bought 2 March Soybeans futures at
$5.60 1/4> Sold 10 March Soybean $6.40 calls for 7 1/4 cents ($362.50)
each> ENTRY DATE: October 31> CREDIT AT OPEN: Collected $3,625
in premium for the options> INITIAL MARGIN: $3,000> EXPIRATION
DATE: The options expire on February 22, 2003> COMMENT AT OPEN: This
trade is a standard ratio write. We are selling> 10 March $6.40
calls and going long 2 futures contracts. Based on the> current
futures volatility level of 20 the options are overvalued.> This allows
us to initially collect $3,625 in premium while the> initial margin for
this trade is only $3,000. Just a reminder,> though, that the initial
margin requirement for this trade can change> significantly through
the life of the trade.> ADDITIONAL COMMENT:> There are a number
of reasons that we like this trade in soybeans at> this time of year.
The tendency is for the volatility in soybeans to> fall as the US
harvest is completed and we head into the winter> months. If this trend
continues it bodes well for options to lose> value. Additionally, the
statistics show that soybeans rarely break> their summer highs in the
November-February time frame. This past> summer the high for soybeans
was approximately $6.25 which is still> 15 cents below the strike price
of $6.40. Only twice in the last 14> years has soybeans broken the
previous summer's high price in the> November-February time frame. None
of this means that it can't break> $6.25 this winter, but we like these
odds. By the way, based on> the expiration and assuming we make no
adjustments to this trade our> upside break even level is approximately
$6.68. On the downside of> soybeans we might make an adjustment to the
trade in the next few> weeks to limit our downside exposure. As it
stands now, with no> adjustments the downside break-even on this trade
is approximately> $5.25.>> There is risk of loss trading
options and futures. Trade with risk> capital only. If you would like
to speak to us about trading options> on futures, call 1-800-972-3343
and ask for Jon
Lubow.>>>>>>>> To
unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>> Your
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