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I've read a lot about how the upgrade cycle "has" to bail out the technology
industry but I consider much of that to be bunk. Bottom line is that when
you already have good, modern technology, you don't have to upgrade your
equipment ... not business and not consumers. Yes, there are always some
tasks which require leading edge equipment, however the typical office
worker or consumer does not need faster equipment to read email, browse the
web, and write documents. With a sinking economy, the upgrade cycle is
likely to be relegated to the replacement cycle. Even the replacement cycle
for full boxes is suspect because it is so easy to swap components.
FWIW, I believe that one of the biggest stock hits in the technology
business is yet to be seen as MSFT scrambles to push monopoly priced product
out the door into a sagging economy where users which have no need for the
latest features in Office.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "BobsKC" <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, September 21, 2002 11:02 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> I'm not sure about telecoms in general but I bought a few K of LU at a
buck
> last week. The companies they sell to can not go forever without
> upgrades/replacements and Lucent appears to have little risk of going
> under. Also, at these prices, a takeover might be a prudent move for a
> strong firm with a horizon beyond next week.
>
> Bob
>
>
> At 12:36 PM 9/21/2002 -0400, you wrote:
> >I think there are two sides to this point. Isn't a service-based economy
> >more flexible than one based on large factories? It may mean that
> >changes come more easily, and that new industries can develop using the
> >excess information-based labor from weaker sectors.
> >
> >In this respect, telecoms will be a good real-life example. It will be
> >interesting to see what happens to all the people getting laid off by
> >the telecoms firms that won't be growing for several years. If they end
> >up having no place to go, that would indicate your believe is validated.
> >If they find new jobs in a similar field, I think the economic hit will
> >not be very big at all.
> >
> >Regards
> >DanG
> >
> >Earl Adamy wrote:
> > >
> > > I neglected to make one other important point relevant to the original
> > > comparison to Japan. Japan is, in many ways in similar shape to where
> > the US
> > > was in the late 20's with a large manufacturing base and trade
surplus. To
> > > my knowledge, no country in the past several hundred years has entered
a
> > > market/economic decline with an economy based on services! Services
tend to
> > > be far more discretionary than basic manufacturing and I believe that
the
> > > potential exists for a much larger economic hit than the US incurred
during
> > > the Great Depression.
> > >
> > > Earl
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 4:20 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> > >
> > > > During the Great Depression, unemployment was 25%+- ... the flip
side is
> > > > that 75%+- were employed. I do think that several critical
distinctions
> > > are
> > > > missed in comparisons:
> > > >
> > > > 1) When the markets peaked in 1929, the US was a net creditor nation
with
> > > > very large reserves. When the market peaked in 2000, the US was a
net
> > > debtor
> > > > nation with a huge and growing trade deficit.
> > > >
> > > > 2) Even more important, when the markets peaked in the 1929, the US
had a
> > > > large and vibrant manufacturing base which dominated the national
> > economy.
> > > > When the markets peaked in 2000, the US economy was service based
with
> > > most
> > > > of the manufacturing moved off-shore.
> > > >
> > > > Earl
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 3:06 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > What you're saying about Japan is correct. Tokyo is hustlin' and
> > > > > bustlin'. But I've read that even during the Great Depression,
> > > > > things were relatively OK in the major cities here.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Joe Duffy" <joeduffy@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > > Additionally many here seem to think Japan has been in this
decade
> > > > > long
> > > > > > depression. The reality as I hear it is life goes on quite well
> > > > > there, at
> > > > > > least from talking to people who work there --- and that goes
for
> > > > > the
> > > > > > nationals not just the ex-pats in the banking industry I know.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: "Daniel Goncharoff" <thegonch@xxxx>
> > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 12:35 PM
> > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > Your use of the word 'panic' followed in another message by
> > > > > extensive
> > > > > > > use of caps leads me to believe you have an opinion. If there
is
> > > > > > > anything I have learned from lurking on this list over the
years,
> > > > > it is
> > > > > > > to not have a strong opinion, because it makes it emotionally
> > > > > difficult
> > > > > > > to trade.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > You also seem to place a lot of meaning on the shape of the
yield
> > > > > curve,
> > > > > > > and seem to think that the US economy is heading into a
situation
> > > > > like
> > > > > > > Japan. The deep decline in Japan's market can be attributed to
a
> > > > > real
> > > > > > > estate bubble that greatly exaggerated the valuation of 'blue
> > > > > chip'
> > > > > > > companies in that market. It has taken a decade and more to
wash
> > > > > that
> > > > > > > overvaluation out of that market, and there is still a state
of
> > > > > denial
> > > > > > > in the banking sector there. The US is not in a situation
> > > > > anything like
> > > > > > > what happened in Japan. While there may still be too much
> > > > > optimism in
> > > > > > > stocks prices in the US today, I don't see any historical
> > > > > similarity
> > > > > > > except the overall level of interest rates. The size of the
> > > > > bubble in
> > > > > > > both real estate and the stock market was much greater than
> > > > > anything
> > > > > > > present so far in the US economy.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Regards
> > > > > > > DanG
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > "M. Simms" wrote:
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > NO WAY !!! IF SO, HELLO JA-PAN !!! HELLO "DEAD FLAT YIELD
> > > > > CURVE".....
> > > > > > > > JAPAN ECONOMY DEJA VUE....
> > > > > > > > and the experts are saying "IT CAN'T HAPPEN, IT CAN'T
> > > > > HAPPEN" !!!
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Does this spell the death of capitalism ?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > > > > From: profitok [mailto:profitok@x...]
> > > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, September 19, 2002 10:31 PM
> > > > > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > > > > > Cc: gannsghost@xxxx
> > > > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > we STILL have much more to go on the upside,,
> > > > > > > > > June 2003 contract to reach 119 by 3 2003
> > > > > > > > > Ben
> > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > > From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > > To: "RealtradersList" <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, September 19, 2002 10:09 PM
> > > > > > > > > Subject: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Is that correct ?
> > > > > > > > > > In that case we could start approaching that Japan-like
> > > > > yield
> > > > > > > > > curve where
> > > > > > > > > > everything flattens out between a rate of zero and 2
> > > > > percent.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Beware of a Fed INTRADAY rate cut in case of a market
> > > > > panic !
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
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