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The long end is starting to decline right now....thus matching that
profile....
so potentially we are approaching the zero-growth-for-the-next-10-years
Japanese condition rapidly.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: bondo92677 [mailto:bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Monday, September 16, 2002 12:36 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] Hello Steep, steep Yield Curve..... bye-bye stock
> market
>
>
> actually in Japan, overnight rates is near 0%, 10 year = 1%, 30yr =
> 1.7%. I think you have a serious deflationary problem when the
> entire yield curve is laying at the bottom. The central bank is
> trying to stimulate and everyone buys govt bonds because all other
> asset classes are considered too risky.
>
>
>
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx> wrote:
> > Depends on how you measure steepness. In 11/92, ff=3%, 30yr=7.8%,
> > currently its ff=1.75, 30yr=4.7%. Curve wasn't that steep in 1929-
> > 1932 from what I've seen. Of course the bond market wasn't what it
> > it is now back then.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Not when it is THIS STEEP....
> > > last time this steepness occurred ?
> > > 1929
> > >
> > > When it's this steep, there is a fundamental problem in the
> economy.
> > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: bondo92677 [mailto:bruce.larson@x...]
> > > > Sent: Saturday, September 14, 2002 3:55 AM
> > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Hello Steep, steep Yield Curve..... bye-bye
> > stock
> > > > market
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > I dont' quite understand what you're saying. The general view
> has
> > > > always been an inverted curve (ala1989,2000)leads to recession.
> > > > Shouldn't a steep curve mean the opposite?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx>
> > > > > To: "RealtradersList" <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Thursday, September 12, 2002 6:44 PM
> > > > > Subject: [RT] Hello Steep, steep Yield Curve..... bye-bye
> stock
> > > > market
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > http://stockcharts.com/charts/YieldCurve.html
> > > > >
> > > > > So what do you think it means? I ran their simulation. At the
> > > > beginning of
> > > > > the S&P chart,
> > > > > the curve was pointing up. At the top it went flat and then
> > down.
> > > > Now it is
> > > > > pointing up again which I guess means the stock market
> should
> > go
> > > > up? I am
> > > > > not sure how to read this? Please advise.
> > > > >
> > > > > Thanks,
> > > > >
> > > > > Norman
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
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> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
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> > > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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>
>
>
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