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I presume that the EYR relies on actual earnings, not forecasts? If so,
it seems that a reasonable way to reach your target is via a drop in the
index, whereas the spike up that follows would be caused by actual
disappointing results in earnings rather than an actual recovery in the
index.
Thank you for a wonderful perspective on identifying a LT bottom. (Do I
hear a bell ringing??)
Regards
DanG
Earl Adamy wrote:
>
> The 2 standard deviation channel did a pretty nice job of capturing the
> extremes. The outlying trendlines mark 3 standard deviations and have been
> exceeded at both ends only within the last 2 years. I last posted this when
> the ratio came down to the lower 3SD trendline last year. I suggested that
> we would see a bounce followed by further decline. Note the red line at the
> bottom of the chart which indicates the value of the ratio when we had
> comparable short rates in the 1950's and I believe we will see a return to
> these levels before this bear is complete.
>
> Earl
>
>
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