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The 2 standard deviation channel did a pretty nice job of capturing the
extremes. The outlying trendlines mark 3 standard deviations and have been
exceeded at both ends only within the last 2 years. I last posted this when
the ratio came down to the lower 3SD trendline last year. I suggested that
we would see a bounce followed by further decline. Note the red line at the
bottom of the chart which indicates the value of the ratio when we had
comparable short rates in the 1950's and I believe we will see a return to
these levels before this bear is complete.
Earl
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