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This is an update to a note about Soybeans I
posted on May 31, 2001. In the interest of responsible posting, i.e. one
shouldn't post recommendations unless one follows up later with
updates, I am posting this update tonight. Please see the note
below. Near the $4.07 low in July 1999, I accumulated a multiple unit long
position in Soybeans. I have since been selling on strength and buying on
weakness with the eventual result of letting the market take me out of my
position. When time ran out on my contracts, I rolled to future months.
My maximum position near the low was 4 units. Today, Sept. 11, 2002, my
third exit target, 588 1/2 on Nov., was exceeded, so I exited one unit and
I am now down to only one unit. I am still long term bullish on Soybeans,
seeing the potential by next year for over $8. However, I see some cycles
now, such as Mercury Retro, that raise the risk level for the short to
intermediate term, not to mention the crop report due tomorrow.
Strategywise, I am very pleased with where I am with this position. If Soybeans
tank during the next few weeks, I am in a good position to repurchase at lower
prices. If I am wrong about a correction here with the cycles inverting,
I am still long a minimum position and I am
prepared to ride it up to over $8 if that be the case. In otherwords, I
have achieved what I think is the ideal position for any maket, in
Soybeans, which is ambivalence.
Updatingly,
Norman
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Norman
Winski
To: <A title=astrofinance@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:astrofinance@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>astrofinance@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ;
<A title=gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, May 31, 2001 5:47
PM
Subject: [RT] SOYBEANS
Anyone been watching July Soybeans
lately? Last week, they were on the verge of breaking out above the
neckline of an inverted head & shoulders. Tuesday and Wednesday,
rumor has it the fund traders got nervous about no follow through and they
tanked. Today, they are right back to the neckline.
That's the quick background summary.
Soybeans are now near an important
juncture in both price and time. Price wise, we have July Beans at the
450 neckline. Time wise, Mercury, planetary ruler of Soybeans, will be
turning Retrograde on June 4 before Monday's opening. Some of he list
veterans (someone on the list more than two weeks) may remember that I posted
similar information for February 26, which was a low preceding one of the
better Bean rallies of 2001. Mercury Retro is usually a high (observation over
20 years) but it can and does invert.
However, the Feb. 26 example was not
a very good example of an inversion. The rally only went about 30
cents and then failed. Usually when an inversion low is made on Mercury
Retro, the law of exception takes hold. The law of exception is one that was
found by Astrophysics when studying the distribution of energy and matter in
the Universe. This says that the rules are usually followed, but when the
rules are not followed it is cataclysmic in proportion. (If you apply this one
rule to whatever your trading approach is, it can be the difference between
huge success and failure).
I have no scientific percentages on
Soybeans and Mercury handy. I have observed Soybeans in relation to Mercury
for about 20 years, i.e. about 4 Retros per year times 20 years.I have nailed
some very good turns on this in the past. (You don't do this blindly. The
market has to set up correctly to do a trade The planets only act as a
catalyst.) My unscientific forecast is that there if Soybeans
have a big rally between now and Monday's
opening (another 30 - 50 cents), that should be a high. However, if they
pullback or go sideways and then start rallying on Monday, there could be a
very explosive rally. I recall another June, back in the 80s, when Beans
made a low on Mercury Retro. They rallied about $3 in three weeks. That
translates to a $15,000 potential profit on approx. $1,500 margin. Of course,
that was a rare exception.
Past performance is no guarantee of
future results. Futures trading requires substantial risk, almost as great as
trading some stocks. Futures trading may cost you your house, your first
born, your family, your car, and your dog. <FONT face=Arial
size=2> This is strictly for fun and educational purposes
only. POSITIVE suggestions and questions are welcome. All others, please
hit delete.
Soy Veyingly,
Norman
Winski
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