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But are the DEFAULT RATES that high statistically ?
I had always thought they were in the 5-10% range...no ?
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Jim Johnson [mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Tuesday, September 10, 2002 12:13 PM
> To: M. Simms
> Subject: Re[4]: [RT] Money supply charts
>
>
> Hello M.,
>
> I have a feeling those borrowers have already maxed out their credit
> cards. Somebody is paying that price for money. Says to me the risk
> premium in lending is very high. that's why they call this
> "sub-prime" lending. would you lend me money at say 3% over your cost
> is you thought the chances were 50/50 I pay it back? 60/40? etc. So
> its about supply (seems to be money around), demand (don't know but I
> assume there are willing borrowers), and terms. its the latter that
> is the sticking point. I don't see it as greed or avarice as Ira
> suggests. It's just prudence. Am i greedy because I won't take out a
> long position in the NDX with half my wealth? No. its an imprudent
> risk that my stakeholders (me, wife, kids) won't stand for.
>
>
> Best regards,
> Jim Johnson mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx
>
> --
> Tuesday, September 10, 2002, 11:50:10 AM, you wrote:
>
> MS> With an inflation rate of 1-2% and long term rates at 4-5%,
> MS> that 16% is analogous to Mafia extortion rates of the 1930's.
>
> MS> I see no advantage compared to credit card rates of 18% that
> don't require
> MS> that collateral....
> MS> am I missing something here ?
>
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: Jim Johnson [mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx]
> >> Sent: Tuesday, September 10, 2002 10:16 AM
> >> To: M. Simms
> >> Subject: Re[2]: [RT] Money supply charts
> >>
> >>
> >> Hello Mark,
> >>
> >> In theory (as in Michael Porter) if there was less-risky profit to be
> >> had in business lending someone would quickly fill the void. As it
> >> stands they apparently see profit with less risk in other areas. Many
> >> businesses have shown themselves to be less than great bets--big
> >> plans, fancy accounting, bubble-driven optimism all around. Would you
> >> lend money to a business right now? Or at what rate and at what
> >> level of collateral? Met a guy at the gym the other day. He lends to
> >> small businesses--takes mortgage on the house at 16%, collateralizes
> >> every piece of personal property. That's the picture of risk/reward
> >> today in commercial lending I guess.
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> Best regards,
> >> Jim Johnson mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx
> >>
> >> --
> >> Tuesday, September 10, 2002, 9:43:39 AM, you wrote:
> >>
> >> MS> This is interesting.....since Banks aren't lending anymore
> >> for businesses to
> >> MS> expand, what function do they perform ?
> >> MS> Man, this really smacks of a "just like Japan" condition.
> >>
> >> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> >> From: Daniel Goncharoff [mailto:thegonch@xxxxxxxxxx]
> >> >> Sent: Tuesday, September 10, 2002 12:32 AM
> >> >> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> >> Subject: Re: [RT] Money supply charts
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> Actually, the lack of CP issuance says more about the level
> of fear of
> >> >> more corporate surprises. Remember that with CP, the bank that
> >> >> underwrites it has the default risk. These days, who is
> going to take
> >> >> that risk?
> >> >>
> >> >> For the historical perspective that the collapse of Penn
> Central in the
> >> >> early 70s (IMS) nearly brought down Goldman Sachs.
> >> >>
> >> >> Regards
> >> >> DanG
> >> >>
> >> >> "M. Simms" wrote:
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Wow - Commercial Paper activity......lowest in more than a decade.
> >> >> > That kind of says it all as far as overall business activity.
> >> >> >
> >> >> > > -----Original Message-----
> >> >> > > From: Terry B. Rhodes [mailto:trhodes3@xxxxxxxxx]
> >> >> > > Sent: Monday, September 09, 2002 11:40 AM
> >> >> > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> >> > > Subject: Re: [RT] Money supply charts
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > > > We haven't seen an update of your money supply chart on
> >> >> > > realtraders in awhile. Could you publish an updated
> chart? Thanks.
> >> >> > > >
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > > You can view money supply charts here
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > > http://www.martincapital.com/charts.htm
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > > regards,
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > > tbr
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> >> >> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> >> >> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> >> >> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> >
> >> >> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
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> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >>
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> >> >>
> >> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> MS> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> >>
> >>
> >>
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>>
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