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It's difficult to have much conviction with the
9/11 anniversary wildcard this week, but I'll take the other side of your
scenario Ernie. The rally on Friday was entirely unimpressive and the
few bulls that actually participated looked like stumbling drunks in an ice
storm. And the late failed breakout/weak close wasn't confidence inspiring
and most likely was a good place to enter medium term shorts.
Regardless of which way it goes I just hope we
see 898-900 become support or 890-888 become resistance early on
Monday.
Bob
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Hill,
Ernie
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'">'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Sent: Friday, September 06, 2002 8:11
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast
Update
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2>Yesterday’s close was
firmly in the middle of my last target range of 876-884. On Tuesday I said
“while the market can move below the 876 level it must close above it for my
target range of 876-884 to be valid.” The market did just that with
yesterday’s intra-day low of 870.55 and a closing price of
879.15.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2>I believe we have finally
seen the termination of the recent down move. With today’s close of 893.92 we
finally have a confirmation day. My work indicates that the dominant trend
will be up from here until late September or early October, where the bear
market rally will lose steam and roll over.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2>
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=black size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">E
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=navy size=3><A
href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts";><FONT face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">http://groups.yahoo.com/group/<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">snpforecasts<SPAN
class=EmailStyle20><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Arial color=navy
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Tahoma color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original
Message-----From: Hill,
Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent: Tuesday, September 03, 2002 9:22
PMTo:
'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast
Update
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">The market can be very humbling. What I
rated as a small chance has come to pass. The 876-884 target range is the last
of my projected target ranges for the termination of the current short term
down move.<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">883.63 is the critical .618 retracement
level for the move from the 8-5 low to the 8-22 high. 876 is literally the
line in the sand. My work does not show any support levels of significant
strength below 876. Should the market drop from here to below 833 before
terminating this current down swing, it would cause me to have to perform a
major re-evaluation of the markets current price structure.<FONT
color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">While the market can move below the 876
level it must close above it for my target range of 876-884 to be valid. It
has been my experience that all significant turning points occur very near to
strong support or resistance levels. This particular turning point has made
itself significant by the strength of the markets move down to
it.<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">My timing model is screaming for a turn
to be made, and we are at the last strong support level that I see before
breaking the 8-5 low of 833.44. My methodology is now staring the market right
in the face. Which will blink first?<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">E <SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><FONT
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