RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update

["Hill, Ernie" <ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx>]

<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;color:black'>Yesterday&#8217;s close was firmly in the middle
of my last target range of 876-884. On Tuesday I said &#8220;while the market can
move below the 876 level it must close above it for my target range of 876-884
to be valid.&#8221; The market did just that with yesterday&#8217;s intra-day low of 870.55
and a closing price of 879.15.

<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;color:black'> 

<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;color:black'>I believe we have finally seen the
termination of the recent down move. With today&#8217;s close of 893.92 we finally
have a confirmation day. My work indicates that the dominant trend will be up
from here until late September or early October, where the bear market rally
will lose steam and roll over.

<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;color:black'> 

<font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman">E

<font size=3 color=navy
face="Times New Roman"><a
href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts";><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>http://groups.yahoo.com/group/<span
style='font-weight:bold'>snpforecasts<span
class=EmailStyle20><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>

<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'> 

<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>-----Original
Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Tuesday, September 03, 2002
9:22 PM
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast
Update

<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'> 

<span style='font-size:12.0pt;
color:black'>The market can be very humbling. What I rated as a small chance
has come to pass. The 876-884 target range is the last of my projected target
ranges for the termination of the current short term down move.<font
color=black>

<span style='font-size:12.0pt;
color:black'>883.63 is the critical .618 retracement level for the move from
the 8-5 low to the 8-22 high. 876 is literally the line in the sand. My work
does not show any support levels of significant strength below 876. Should the
market drop from here to below 833 before terminating this current down swing,
it would cause me to have to perform a major re-evaluation of the markets
current price structure.<span style='color:
black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'>

<span style='font-size:12.0pt;
color:black'>While the market can move below the 876 level it must close above
it for my target range of 876-884 to be valid. It has been my experience that
all significant turning points occur very near to strong support or resistance
levels. This particular turning point has made itself significant by the
strength of the markets move down to it.<span
style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'>

<span style='font-size:12.0pt;
color:black'>My timing model is screaming for a turn to be made, and we are at
the last strong support level that I see before breaking the 8-5 low of 833.44.
My methodology is now staring the market right in the face. Which will blink
first?<span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>

<span style='font-size:12.0pt;
color:black'>E <span style='color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'>





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