[RT] "Chart Watchers Weekly" (HTML Version) for 03 August 2002

[John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxx>]

Title: Chart Watchers Weekly - 03 August 2002


Once again what is below this is not a promo by me but rather the 
opposing point of view that my previous post re. an upturn is 
imminent.

It updates the last July Chart Watchers Weekly.

John


------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: Chip Anderson 
Subject: "Chart Watchers Weekly" (HTML Version) for 03 August 2002
Date: 08/04/2002 03:52pm

    StockCharts.com's Weekly Summary of Market Trends, Signals and Changes 03 August 2002 Hello Fellow Chart Watchers! Last Monday brought a glimmer of hope for those looking for a market recovery with the major averages rising on strong volume. However, as I've often said, one day does not a reversal make and the rest of the week saw a return to same pattern of decline after decline after decline. Several of the averages managed to finish the week in positive territory, but that fact is very misleading. The failure of last Monday's rally was yet another bearish development in a long line of such signals. Like we talked about in

ou r last edition, there are five stages to a significant reversal and we are still waiting for that first important "higher trough" to appear on the charts. Until it does, it is best to relax and wait on the sidelines. One Picture, One Thousand Words We often get asked why someone should do their own market analysis instead of just relying on their broker or on buy-and-hold strategies. The chart below is one of the strongest arguments I've been able to come up with: Each of the blue boxes contains a documented recommendation on ENE from one of the major Wall Street analysts covering the company (source: Bloomberg). I know, I know - "20/20 hindsight." If I'd held ENE when the 80-day CMF went negative in November 2000, would I have sold immediately? Probably not. However, I would have been concerned and I would have watched the stock much more closely. In March of 2001, when ENE fell below the low set at the end of November, I would have sold and not looked back. And if I'd somehow missed that, there were many other technical breakdowns between March and November 2001 that provided clear exit points. And yet, the major Wall Street analysts completely ignored the technical signals and continued recommending the stock. You have to scratch your head and ask "Why?" at some point - like when that final "Buy" recommendation on the right side of the chart was made. Now, it is important to understand that I am not advocating the blind use of a single technical indicator like the 80-day CMF for buy and sell signals. What I am advocating is a balanced, intelligent investing approach that combines many factors - some technical, some fundamental - to come up with an investment outlook that you are comfortable with. The chart above suggests that when the major analysts are consistently bucking obvious technical signals, something else may be afoot and the cautious investor should leave for greener pastures. -- Chip

	  Bollinger Bands are everywhere for a reason... They 
Work!
	  Now Learn How from John Bollinger 
Himself

Learn how to use one of the most powerful Bollinger Band patterns, The Squeeze. This pattern occurs when there is a prolonged contraction of the Bollinger Bands and is usually followed by an explosive expansion. In this brand new downloadable PDF eBook, John Bollinger explains how to profitably trade this formation, when to place your trade and how to know when you should go long or short. Order now through this exclusive offer, and you will receive a free one-month trial of Bollinger's Capital Growth Letter!

Click here for more info!

 

      
      
  








    Site News




 

ATTENTION BASIC MEMBERS: August is UPGRADE month!
Announcing our best upgrade pricing ever.  For a limited time, Basic 
members who upgrade to our Extra! service will receive up to three 
additional months of Extra! service FREE!  Depending on how much time 
you have left in your Basic account, we'll give you one, two, or 
three additional months of 
Extra! service when you upgrade.  Of course, upgrading to Extra! 
improves your online analysis capabilities by

an order of magnitude and now that power can be yours for our lowest per- month cost ever. To learn more and see the exact pricing for your situation, log in to your Basic account from our homepage and then click on the "Upgrade" link in the "Your Membership" area. Don't delay! Other Ways to Earn Free Membership Months Don't forget the other ways to earn free Membership months: 1.) One month for each new member that you refer to StockCharts. 2.) One month for every Extra! member who publishs a Public Chart List and receives 100 votes. 3.) One month if you suggest a scan for our Scan Hall of Fame. 4.) One month if your Public Chart List finishes first in the monthly voting. WebTech Corner: Intel Xeon Now Inside We're in the process of installing a new generation of computer servers into our web site. When we complete things later this week, we will have more than doubled the overall speed and capacity of the site. These new servers add almost 10 gigahertz (that's 10,000 megahertz!) of additional computing power to our system. You should see faster response times, fewer downtime, and - soon - the elimination of the dreaded "The Scan Engine is updating its database" message! Stay tuned... Carl Swenlin's DecisionPoint McClellan Summation Index The McClellan Summation Index is a very closely followed market breadth indicator that has a very good track record when it comes to signalling market turns. As you can see below in the 21-day blow-up to the right of the main chart, the index reversed itself Friday. This is another important reason to doubt that the true bottom has been reached just yet. Charts courtesy of DecisionPoint.com --Carl Swenlin Don't forget to visit DecisionPoint's "Top Advisors Corner" for free, periodic updated from some of the best in known names in the stock market advisor business. Click here for the latest postings. Arthur Hill's TDTrader Arthur Hill is on hiatus this week. For more of Arthur's intuitive commentary, check out his website: TDTrader.com Take your TA to the next level! Arthur is still offering a two week FREE trial of his website. Take advantage of this free offer today! The Rhodes Report As the decline has begun in earnest once again, we are required to stand back and look at the longer-term picture, and we shall do so in the context of the weekly S&P 600 Small Cap Index. There are several patterns present which augur for a continued decline - quite possibly from a current level of approximately 190, towards a worst case decline to the 1998 support level of 130 - in essence, we believe another 24% to 33% lower is not out of the question, and quite probable. Our reasoning: a significant long-term top formed using the 1998-2000- 2001-2002 tops - each of which lost a degree of momentum in relation to the slope of the rising trendline off the 1994-1998 lows - which was violated three (3) weeks ago. If this is correct, then previous major support at 185 will give way shortly, and our objective will be achieved sooner than later. And, we further note the level of the longer-term 40-week stochastic - which clearly has a significant distance to travel to a relative bottom. Good luck and good trading, Richard Rhodes If you want more of Richard's award winning advise, check out his website: TheRhodesReport.com - Highly recommended! John Murphy's Market Watch CYCLICALS/TRANSPORTS LEAD MARKET DECLINE HURT BY ECONOMIC WEAKNESS... Weak economic numbers throughout the past week leave little doubt that the falling stock market is taking an economic toll. That's why it should be no surprise that the weakest market sector during the week were the economically-sensitive cyclical/transportation group. Within that group, retailers were hit pretty hard -- another sign that consumers are now on the defensive. Transportation stocks tumbled 4% on Friday and were especially weak. Basic industry stocks were also among the weakest groups. Especially heavy selling was seen in economically-sensitive chemicals and papers on Friday. For the week, some scared money sought relief in consumer staples, gold, and utilities -- which rebounded a bit. Bonds ended the week on a strong note. STILL IN CASH... The Dow lost 193 points as the stock market experienced another bad day. Even heavier losses were seen in the Nasdaq market -- which was pulled down by a falling semiconductor group (please see our morning update for a discussion of the falling SOX Index). A late bounce kept the Dow above initial chart support along the July 25 peak. We don't think that level will hold for long. As we said last night, our next downside target is to the 8,000 level. Sooner or later, we expect the recent lows to be retested -- and probably broken. If that doesn't happen this month (August), there's an even stronger chance for new lows during the traditionally-week September/October period. We're happy to report that the MurphyMorris Money Management accounts remain in a full cash position. Until further notice, cash is still king. John Murphy posts charts like this every day on his website, MurphyMorris.com.

2nd Opportunity to Short! We've found a stock that has not only confirmed a major topping pattern, but is also breaking down from a symmetrical triangle. Regardless of which way the market is moving, you can make money from setups like these. Click here to reveal the name of this stock Are You New To StockCharts.com? Here are some links that should help you get started: A Quick Tour of the Site John Murphy's 10 "Laws" of Technical Trading Chip's Thoughts on Getting Started with Technical Analysis All About Charting and Technical Analysis Our Mailbag Column is full of great tips and advice. Bored? Check out our SharpCharts Voyeur page to see recent masterpieces that other users created on StockCharts.com Help Us Out! Did you know that the best way you can help StockCharts.com is by recommending us to a friend? We need your help to spread the word about our site by forwarding this newsletter to everyone you know. You can also help by visiting our advertisers and by doing all of your Amazon.com shopping via the links in our Bookstore. Thanks, we appreciate everyone's support no matter what form it takes! Questions? Comments? Concerns? Problems? Suggestions? Simply 'r'eply to this email message and I'll see what I can do. Take care,    Chip ABOUT YOUR SUBSCRIPTION: You are receiving this mailing because your email address was entered into the subscription form on our web site. To unsubscribe, or to switch between our HTML version and the Plain Text version, use the form on our Subscriber page. If you have any problems, simply 'r'eply to this email and I'll try to fix things by hand. Home Tools & Charts Chart School Support Subscribe FAQ Glossary ©1999-2002 StockCharts.com All Rights Reserved  Terms of Use Data provided by All data is delayed by 15 minutes or more Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ADVERTISEMENT To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.