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Alex,
Virtually any text dealing with chaos and non-linear dynamics
arrives at the same conclusion. Ask any weather man how far
he can reliably predict into the future. Weather is a non-linear
dynamic system. A study of the formula shows that over time price
becomes chaotic (although possibly within a defined realm). That's
how I have interpreted my readings and observations. I'm not the
worlds greatest mathematician and most of the theoretical texts go
way over my head.
Adrian
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Alex Bell [mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Thursday, 1 August 2002 8:26 PM
> To: Adrian Pitt
> Subject: Re[2]: [RT] Very Important DJIA Fourier Analysis/Prediction
>
>
> Hello Adrian,
>
> afaiu neural nets deal with linear systems. btw where
> chaos theory established the fact we can't forecast
> many data points into the future?
>
> Best regards,
> Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
>
>
> Thursday, August 1, 2002, 2:15:41 PM, you wrote:
>
> AP> Slawek,
>
> AP> May I ask how a neural network forecast can make so many
> predictive
> AP> wiggles Into the future? Isn't it usually the case of
> taking some
> AP> or many points in the past to predict just a small timeframe into
> AP> the future? That is what Chaos theory and non-linear
> dynamics are
> AP> all about, the fact we can't forecast many data points into the
> AP> future.
>
> AP> Adrian
>
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx [mailto:SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx]
> >> Sent: Monday, 29 July 2002 4:31 PM
> >> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> Subject: Re: [RT] Very Important DJIA Fourier Analysis/Prediction
> >>
> >>
> >> Clyde,
> >> here is one of my proprietary Neural networks confirming
> >> Your Fourier. High late Aug early Sept, then down to Oct.
> >> This particular work well last week. I usually set them on
> >> Mondays for rest
> >> of the week. Usually Don't go that far out in predictions
> because of
> >> inversions. Could provide hrs on chart but then picture will
> >> be too crowded.
> >>
> >> Slawek
> >>
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>
>
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