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<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'>The critical level for Monday is 861<font
color=black> (A .382
retracement of the move from the 6-28 high to the 7-24 low)<font
color=blue>. This is a highly charged point in the
current price structure. If the market moves through this level tomorrow on
strength, then it’s clear sailing to at least the 889 level (not necessarily
tomorrow but within a couple of days). However, if the market reaches 861
tomorrow, and is unable to punch through this level we could see the beginning
of a steep and rapid decline.
<font size=2 color="#333300"
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Arial'>
<font size=2 color="#333300"
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Arial'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>-----Original
Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Thursday, July 25, 2002 9:32
PM
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>I
am concerned by the S&P’s failure to close today above yesterdays high. I
was expecting a brief but powerful short term rally from the 780 level. It
started out that way yesterday, but today’s lack of follow thru is causing me
to assess a lower target level for tomorrow which could terminate this move.
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>A
.618 retracement of the move from the 7-17 high to the 7-24 low would yield
869.
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>A
.382 retracement of the move from the 6-28 high to the 7-24 low would yield
862.
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>If
the market stalls in this range tomorrow 862-869 it could be the end to this
brief attempt at a rally. Ironically the market has a better chance of moving
through and exceeding this range if it fails to go that high tomorrow, and
closes in the upper third of it’s trading range. Likewise if the market can
penetrate and close above this level then my previously posted higher target
levels are almost certain to be reached.
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>E
<font
size=2 color=purple face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
<font
size=2 color=purple face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>-----Original
Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Wednesday, July 24, 2002
9:37 PM
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous<span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"> <font
color=black>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>It appears that the 780 Fib. Level has
held, and sparked the beginning of a powerful, but likely short lived short
covering rally. <font color=blue
face=Arial>The
market made it’s low at 775.75 just 4.25 points below the 780 level and it was
only below the 780 level for about 8 minutes.
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>My next targets for the end of this brief
rally are:
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>First target 896-902 level which
corresponds to a .382 retracement of the move down from the 5-17 high to
today’s low which works out to be 902. If this target range is reached it will
likely be done by Friday or Monday.
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>My next and equally as likely to occur
target is 889 if the market fails to reach the previous targets by Monday then
this becomes the most likely target. I would look for this target to be hit on
7-31 or 8-1. This price level corresponds to a 50% retracement of the move from
the 6-28 high down to today’s low.
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>E
<font
size=2 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>
<font size=3 color=blue
face="Times New Roman"><span
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <font size=2
color=black face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;
color:black'>-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2002 9:42
PM
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous<span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"> <font
color=black>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>So far
the market is holding up, that is to say it is not crashing. Right now the
market stands at the edge of the cliff right at the crossroads of a brief but
possibly strong rally, and slipping into panic selling crash mode.<font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>Tomorrow's
key levels are 791.55 and 780.<span
style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>791.55
represents a 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the move from the 5-17 high to the
6-14 low as measured from the 7-8 high. I have previously posted the Fibonacci
relationships associated with the 780 level.<font color=black
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>The
market could find support at either one of these two levels which could spark a
brief two to five day rally. If this rally does take place it will likely be
only an interruption to the current powerful down trend. If the 780 level fails
to hold support tomorrow there could be full scale panic selling.<font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>I do
not think that will be the case. First off my timing model is calling for a
short term bottom to be made tomorrow +or - 4 trading days. Secondly the 780
level appears to be a very strong support level, and finally it looks like we
are completing a short term corrective pattern on the hourly chart that often
precedes reversals.<span
style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>E<span
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <font color=black
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"> <font
color=black>
<font size=3 color=black
face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";
mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
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