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The market played out today according to a failed follow-through of a
bear market rally...at least to me and as I posted yesterday of what
my sensers were indicating.
Tomorrow I see more of the same with failed rallies if any. If for
some reason there should be a rally, I do not believe it will hold up
next week.
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: BobsKC <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators Anomymous
Date: 07/25/2002 10:14pm
hmm.. I was very happy with the market today. Considering the bad
news in
the Nas tech sector again, the dow and s&p held in very good even
after a
couple of strong efforts to push them off the cliff. For me, I'll
also be
happy if tomorrow, we are able to consolidate the gain of yesterday a
bit
further. I doubt we have seen the lows of this bear market but I
think it
at least 50/50 we have seen a short term bottom and could now enter
into a
trading range at these vastly reduced levels.
Bob
At 09:31 PM 7/25/2002 -0500, you wrote:
>I am concerned by the S&P s failure to close today above yesterdays
high.
>I was expecting a brief but powerful short term rally from the 780
level.
>It started out that way yesterday, but today s lack of follow thru
is
>causing me to assess a lower target level for tomorrow which could
>terminate this move.
>
>A .618 retracement of the move from the 7-17 high to the 7-24 low
would
>yield 869.
>
>A .382 retracement of the move from the 6-28 high to the 7-24 low
would
>yield 862.
>
>If the market stalls in this range tomorrow 862-869 it could be the
end to
>this brief attempt at a rally. Ironically the market has a better
chance
>of moving through and exceeding this range if it fails to go that
high
>tomorrow, and closes in the upper third of it s trading range.
Likewise if
>the market can penetrate and close above this level then my
previously
>posted higher target levels are almost certain to be reached.
>
>E
>
>
>
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
>Sent: Wednesday, July 24, 2002 9:37 PM
>To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
>Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators Anomymous
>
>
>
>It appears that the 780 Fib. Level has held, and sparked the
beginning of
>a powerful, but likely short lived short covering rally. The market
made
>it s low at 775.75 just 4.25 points below the 780 level and it was
only
>below the 780 level for about 8 minutes.
>
>
>
>My next targets for the end of this brief rally are:
>
>
>
>First target 896-902 level which corresponds to a .382 retracement
of the
>move down from the 5-17 high to today s low which works out to be
902. If
>this target range is reached it will likely be done by Friday or
Monday.
>
>
>
>My next and equally as likely to occur target is 889 if the market
fails
>to reach the previous targets by Monday then this becomes the most
likely
>target. I would look for this target to be hit on 7-31 or 8-1. This
price
>level corresponds to a 50% retracement of the move from the 6-28
high down
>to today s low.
>
>
>
>E
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
>From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
>Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2002 9:42 PM
>To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
>Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators Anomymous
>
>
>
>So far the market is holding up, that is to say it is not crashing.
Right
>now the market stands at the edge of the cliff right at the
crossroads of
>a brief but possibly strong rally, and slipping into panic selling
crash mode.
>
>
>
>Tomorrow's key levels are 791.55 and 780.
>
>
>
>791.55 represents a 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the move from the 5-
17
>high to the 6-14 low as measured from the 7-8 high. I have
previously
>posted the Fibonacci relationships associated with the 780 level.
>
>
>
>The market could find support at either one of these two levels
which
>could spark a brief two to five day rally. If this rally does take
place
>it will likely be only an interruption to the current powerful down
trend.
>If the 780 level fails to hold support tomorrow there could be full
scale
>panic selling.
>
>
>
>I do not think that will be the case. First off my timing model is
calling
>for a short term bottom to be made tomorrow +or - 4 trading days.
Secondly
>the 780 level appears to be a very strong support level, and finally
it
>looks like we are completing a short term corrective pattern on the
hourly
>chart that often precedes reversals.
>
>
>
>E
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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