|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
I am in possession of a chart entitled "U.S. Financial
History - 1787 to 2004 A Cyclical Interpretation" by
Donald J. Hoppe.
I wish I could reproduce it here on RT, but it is
copyrighted (1984). It is published by Investment
Services, Inc., P.O Box 977, Crystal Lake, IL 60014.
I have had it since my father's death in 1993 and he
had it for years, probably since 1985.
I am amazed by the accuracy of it's prediction of
market behavior since its publication. Of course when
I received it I was sceptical of it's accuracy and
preferred to take a "wait and see" attitude.
Based on 55 year supercycles, and 18.3, 9.2 and 4.6
year cycles, Hoppe called (in 1984):
A peak in 1984 to a 55 year Supercycle low in 1987.
>From the low of 1987 to a high in 1993.
>From 1993 to an intermediate low in 1995.
>From 1995 to a 55 year Cycle high in 2001.
And here it gets interesting.
He calls for a 55 year Kondratieff low in 2004, where
the chart ends on an upswing. If the cycles on the
chart repeat, 10-11 years from 2001 (2011 or 2012)
would be the next high.
The 1990 recession apparently did not register on this
macro analysis.
I find Hoppe's predictions of the bull market
beginning in 1995 and the bear beginning in 2001 to be
particularly prescient and now trust the current bear
market to continue to 2004.
Hoppe wrote a book on gold investment, but otherwise I
know nothing of him. Do any RT'ers know him or have
any opinion of his work? Coments?
And no, I do not have any relation with him or
anything he may be selling. I do wonder if he has
updated his chart since 1984!
bruce
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Health - Feel better, live better
http://health.yahoo.com
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Will You Find True Love?
Will You Meet the One?
Free Love Reading by phone!
http://us.click.yahoo.com/7dY7FD/R_ZEAA/Ey.GAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|