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Chas,
How about Harry Dent who said due the the demographic curve, the stock
market was on a permanent parabolic of prosperity ala DJIA 40,000 by 2015.
As for deflation, as the dollar goes down down down, due to the necessity
for low interest rates, commodity prices and hence inflation should go up.
Take a look at the CRB for the past six months.
An interesting paradox is that the low interests which are a necessity to
support the slumping economy will spawn some inflation which should cause
stock valuations to shrink even if the economy firms. This is exactly what I
foresaw last fall when I pleaded and extolled the vitures of buying
extremely depressed commodities.
Keep in mind that the current stock market level is only marking down p/e
ratios to formerly historic high levels, a mark down to retail. In contrast,
some commodity prices last fall, when adjusted for inflation, were lower
than their 1930s depression lows.
Cheers,
Norman
----- Original Message -----
From: "charles meyer" <chmeyer@xxxxxxxx>
To: "REAL TRADERS" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2002 3:40 PM
Subject: [RT] GEN: CONTROVERSIAL ECONOMIST....
> Group-
>
> This guy; who lives I believe in Dallas; wrote some book a few years back
> explaining various historical economic cycles. One of these ideas was
that
> the U.S. economy was facing a deflationary environment. His book came out
> just at the wrong time--1997 to 1998 time frame I believe--just when the
> markets took off to the upside. I recall visiting his web site which
> contained
> a great deal of information. Does anyone here recall this guys name; or
his
> web site address? Thanks.
>
> chas
>
>
>
>
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