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Linda Raschke and Steve Moore once did some research that showed that a market that finishes in the top 10-15% of its range for the day had an 80% chance of going higher at some point the next day. You might want to consider this if you're intraday trade is near the end of the day and you're considering closing it out or not. The other thing is to actually consider the larger trend. If the larger trend is up and you're closing up, would you like to carry it overnight. On the other hand, carrying any longs overnight the past several weeks would have been very injurious to your account for sure. All of this may be based on how tight your stops are and whether any move against you overnight might be enough to take that out (means considering volatility). And, of course there's always that 3% chance that the bottom falls out overnight, one of the caveats in that 80% reasoning. Working with options is another way to risk longer term trades assuming you get it right during the day, but I'll leave the nuances of the option game to those on this list who know much more.
Infernal Elk <infernalelk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>> What's CIT?>> thx>> karensorry, i used shorthand. (i myself had to ask that same question once).CIT == change-in-trend.kind-of-off-topic but sort-of-on-topic:i can only speak from personal experience here. after having gottenbeaten up fairly badly (actually, it was my account that got beat up)trying to do swing & position trading, i finally figured out (duh!)that this was a *trading* market, not a positional market (from myviewpoint). i have done much better playing the intraday moves.(of course it didn't help that i STARTED trading in march 2000 (!).maybe that has something to do with my viewpoint & perspective, yathink?).to me, closing out by the end of the day seems the saner thing to do.very rarely will i hold positions overnight & only if i have a strongview of continuation (or reversal). it's just too easy to get muggedovernight & raped at the next morning's open. who needs that?i have heard it said that intra-day trading is more difficult thanswing or positional trading. to me, the opposite seems to be thecase. i realize that bigger money can be made playing the larger,longer swings. but at what risk?thus, though i'm interested in questions like "how long do you thinkthis trend will last?" (as an idle interest), i don't pay muchattention to the answers (!). because (1) paying too much attentionto the answer makes me hold to a view possibly dissonant withsubsequent reality (2) being flat each night (or most nights) means ican view the next day's activity with a clean eye. having a viewsimply clouds the vision (or at least does so in my experience).this isn't to say knowing the major trend isn't important. i justdon't pay much attention to it. :-)well, this ought to open up some friendly debate.- *lkTo unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxYour use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service. Do You Yahoo!?
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