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I played with the sentiment data a while back, and will offer the following
observations:
1) Generally, sentiment alone was not a good indicator of next week's
direction, but when combined with the poll's median guess for the Dow close
at the end of the week, it had reasonable accuracy, about 60% as I recall.
2) A filter that seemed useful was to ignore the direction indicated by the
Dow guess when bearish sentiment was above 60. This was during both up and
down trends. A similar extreme in bullish sentiment didn't seem to affect
accuracy.
A difficulty with actually using this data is that it comes out late on
Monday, though perhaps it is posted to the web page earlier, I don't know.
-----Original Message-----
From: Scott Winsor [mailto:s1f1winsor@xxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2002 11:10 AM
To: realtraders
Subject: Re: [RT] Fw: LowRisk.com Investor Sentiment 07/22/02
This is an interesting sentiment indicator.
I downloaded the csv and sorted by bulls/bulls+bears. The current
reading barely makes the top ten percent. What does it take to scare these
guys?
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