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<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>That
study must have pre-dated my membership on this list, because I am not familiar
with it. I must wonder in doing this study was a .618 retracement for example considered
to occur if it was, say actually .636 or .600? These two percentages are not
very far off from .618.
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>Here
is my point, one could calculate a potential reversal to occur at a .618
retracement, which might hypothetically be 948.89. The actual reversal may
occur at 951, which would be a .636 retracement. Was this an actual .618
retracement? Could you make money by missing a turn by 2.11 S&P points? My
answers to these questions are YES & YES.
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>E
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>-----Original
Message-----
From: Kent Rollins
[mailto:kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 8:40
PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] Re:
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font size=2 color=black
face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";
color:black'>There is a saying: "The plural of 'anecdotes' is not
'data'." Just because<font size=2 color=black
face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";
mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
you can find a few instances on a chart proves you are handy with charts.
Clyde did a data-packed study of retracements and posted the results in a
very clear and incontrovertible chart which had the length of retracements
on 1 axis and the frequency of occurances on the other. There was NO
blip
at the magical Fibonacci numbers. None. The data line was
perfectly smooth
from one side of the chart to the other with no clump at any point.
Fib retracements are a prism thru which to view the strength of market
moves. Fib numbers have no statistical basis in fact. You could
just as
easily use sixths, eights, tenths, or any other fraction. And for
every
chart you post should a perfect Fib retracement, I could post one that
shows
a perfect retracement based on PI, e, or any other rational number.
Kent
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 3:35 PM
Clyde,
It is not a very few examples, as you have "continued to state".
Your posisition seems to be, if you can't "program it", it does
not exist?
I say, every day, in every time frame, I use it constantly, almost more
than
any other tool. What you call " isolated" occurs all the
time, and it is
"not isolated"?
Here are a couple of other weekly "fib things" that as you would
say, do not
exist that I recently supplied to one who inquired about retracements.
First two look pretty good to me (blue 50% and the red .618) of the prior
moves down so far. Would they show up on what you have tried to
program?
Keep fighting this, but you are losing the battle from what I
normally
trade, as it would appear may others.
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "Clyde Lee" <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 11:22 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching doesn't
> What I believe in and what I publish may be two entirely
> different things. You have never seen a published study
> by me that indicated that Gann Angle projection of time
> or price reversal points had any more significance than
> a random choice of points.
>
> My publication of Gann Angle points was just an observation
> and not an analysis.
>
> Why it is that you insist on selecting A VERY FEW examples
> of FIB relationships that seem to work a proof that such is the
> case I do not understand.
>
> I understand that many people use FIB relationships in
> discretionary trading as a guide to where price reversals might
> occur but I have yet to see anyone publish a trading system
> based on the FIB ratios that was successful. And, in view
> of the statistical data which has been accumulated it is highly
> unlikely that it will.
>
> My whole purpose of this insistence of looking at the statistics
> of Fib ratios is to try to prevent some of our newer and less
> experienced colleagues from jumping off onto a train that is
> headed for hell.
>
> Clyde
>
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)
> SYTECH
Corporation email:
clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> 7910 Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540
> Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092
> Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 6:48 AM
> Subject: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching doesn't
>
>
> >
> > Clyde and all those interested,
> >
> > Have a look at the enclosed graph. It shows very clearly a
perfect
> > example Of the implementation of Fibonacci ratio's at work, and
why
> > Clyde's number crunching statistical tour de force shows up
nothing.
> > This graph is a daily Bar chart of the Dow, looking at the major
high
> > and the corrective rally we have had this year. Notice that the
> > corrective rally finished in a classic Neely Triangle, as so many
> > multi-wave corrective structures do. Also notice That at that
exact
> > moment we completed the 'e' wave of the triangle was also the EXACT
> > 61.8% retracement of the major decline so far. Also note, that
with
> > almost Any swing methodology applied to this market would never
have
> > caught this. If You go to a weekly or monthly chart that
termination
> > point vanishes and so does The 61.8% retracement, thereby
seemingly
> > proving Clyde's assertion. Clyde, You do some great work, but it
seems
> > there are 2 anomalies here..the first is You seem to believe in
Gann
> > angles but not Fibonacci? That's is an unusual Combination to the
say
> > the least. Secondly, don't let yourself fall into the camp
University
> > academics have for the past decades of trying to prove markets
were
> > Random and technical analysis had no validity by conducting
spurious and
> > erroneous Test. Doing a number crunching test...no matter how
detailed
> > and intensive does NOT Prove something doesn't work simply
because your
> > test didn't show it.
> > This is why I sent this simple little graph. The combination of
Elliott
> > and Fibo working a treat. These aren't isolated examples, and
there is
> > no one on the
> > planet who could ever suggest we stopped at that point because
"everyone
> > looks at charts..so they were watching the 61.8% level".
> >
> > Adrian Pitt
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to <a
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
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