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Even the Financial Times See's the Head and
shoulders pattern I don't think you have to squint too hard.
<A
href="http://investor.ft.com/custom/ftmarkets-com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0FC3A311%2D6AEE%2D48EE%2D85DD%2D8168924B0138%7D";>http://investor.ft.com/custom/ftmarkets-com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0FC3A311%2D6AEE%2D48EE%2D85DD%2D8168924B0138%7D
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Joe Duffy
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, July 15, 2002 11:20
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] John Murphy notes: the
market isn't "cheap"
Its a damn poor example of a head and shoulders. If you
were defining shoulders for a computer test, this wouldn't cut it, else every
up and down swing could be defined as a H&S. You gotta squint to see the
shoulders.
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style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
wavemechanic
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 2:09
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] John Murphy notes:
the market isn't "cheap"
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style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
M.
Simms
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, July 15, 2002 5:09
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] John Murphy notes:
the market isn't "cheap"
WARNING, WARNING....John is getting pretty old and so are
histechniques.....backtesting Head and Shoulders patterns
shows no better than a 50%prediction of significant,
tradeablebottom or top.
Bulkowski's book
indicates that the failure rate is only
7%.<FONT face=Arial
size=2>
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style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
Many fantastic "reversal" rallies have emanated from the
neckline....GOTTA DO YOUR HOMEWORK, John....and less appearances
!> -----Original Message-----> From: Gary Funck
[mailto:gary@xxxxxxxxxxxx]> Sent: Sunday, July 14, 2002 8:02
PM> To: <A
href="mailto:Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx";>Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx.
Com> Subject: [RT] John Murphy notes: the market isn't
"cheap">>>>> <A
href="http://www.murphymorris.com/affiliate/market_watch.html";>http://www.murphymorris.com/affiliate/market_watch.html>>
John Murphy's Market Watch>> by Mr. John Murphy, President
of MURPHYMORRIS.COM>> Sat, July 13, 2002 - HEAD AND
SHOULDERS TOP?> WHAT IS IT?... Quoting from the Glossary in my book
Technical> Analysis of the> Financial Markets: "A head and
shoulders top is the best known of> the reversal> patterns.
At a market top, three prominent peaks are formed with> the
middle> peak (or head) slightly higher than the other two
peaks> (shoulders). When the> trendline (neckline)
connecting the two intervening troughs is broken, the> pattern is
complete." While most major averages show a similar> pattern,
we're> using the NYSE Composite Index for illustration purposes
because> we believe it> probably gives the best overall
measure of the state of the> "market". There's> no question
that the chart has the look of a "head and shoulders"> top. The
two> "shoulders" were formed during 1998 and 2002. The "head"
formed> during 2000.> The "neckline" is drawn under the
1998-2001 reaction lows. As of Friday's> close, the neckline is
already been pierced on the downside, but> not by much.>
There are two other support levels that bear watching. The first is
the> intra-day low hit last fall (which is at 494). The second
(and> more important)> is the late 1998 low at 463. Friday's
close was only a shade below last> September's low, but not by
enough to call this a clear breakdown> -- at least> not yet.
Regarding the breaking of the "neckline", there's also a> 3% rule
which> comes into play at major chart points. That means that
the> neckline needs to be> broken by at least 3% before we
can call it a "major" breakdown.> We may get> there (about
485), but we're not there yet. Unless the market> attempts a
rally> soon, however, a breakdown could be imminent, which could
carry the market> lower into the September/October period.>
[...]> THE MARKET ISN'T CHEAP... The purpose of looking at the
long-term> charts isn't> to scare anyone. Our main goal is
to show that this market isn't cheap. In> fact, it's still
historically very high. We've expressed the view> several
times> before that we believe the twenty-year bull cycle has ended.
That> means the> current bear market could last longer --
and fall much further --> than most> people realize. We
don't know how low it can go. It's the direction that> matters most
-- not the actual numbers. The "head and shoulders"> tops shown
in> the preceding charts is another warning that things could still
get a lot> worse. As the message is finally getting across to the
public> that this bear> market is indeed different from
those in the recent past, mutual fund> redemptions are starting.
Imagine what could happen when the> public finally> decides
to start selling.>>>>> To unsubscribe
from this group, send an email to:> <A
href="mailto:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>>
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