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> That is my story how about you?
I doubt anyone cares about our stories. I was just trying to
get feel for how long you'd been at it. I have a very different
approach. If software uses EW, I want to understand EW. If
software uses divergences, MACD or DMI, I want to understand
divergences, MACD and DMI. I think "picking things apart" is
healthy. It reveals what's underneath. Here someone else's story:
Pillar of the community here, I know him 'cause our kids were
in the same class. "Big" S&P trader "making" lots of money using
a famous MACD system. A few times I went over his house and everytime
he'd show me he'd had several big winners, and one very small loser
that day. He'd chuckle and tell me how easy the S&P was to trade. I'd
leave shaking my head: I've been studying the S&P since I was 13 in
the mid 60's and it's still tough for me. I'd ask my wife: "This
guy's not that smart, not tough at all, he's been at it a short
time...how's he doing it? Something doesn't fit. I tested his
MACD system: it doesn't work that well....." My wife shrugged her
tan shoulders, smiles back at me a nice "like I know" smile.
Anyway, turns out he was "trading" for some very powerful people in
town. Turns out, he was running a scam and not trading at all. They
lost a lot of money, but they caught him a few thousand miles down
the road. He's going to have a LOT of time to paper trade that MACD
system: he got 19 years! Messed with the wrong people.
Moral of the story: pick stuff apart before you jump on the bandwagon.
It might save you some money.
BW
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> Bill,
>
> Not trying to change anythinge you do, just looking for "additive
methods"
> that may all make us money? I can tell you do believe in it and
that's fine,
> as the say different strokes for differnet folks.
>
> To answer your question, I started with it in 1994 evaluating the
software
> for a "large commodities brokerage firm" locally, it was called
something
> differnent then (EWOL?) and available on CQG.
>
> They did not understand it (neither did I) and the broker asked if
I would
> offer an opinion on it (he knew was fairly software efficient). I
did not
> know futures at all (only stocks and options then) and did not know
a
> soybean was if I stepped on one (still the case). Anyway the
broker was big
> into beans and I ran the AGET and it warned of a failed 5th wave or
a double
> top in beans (they were around 7.00+ as I recall). I called a
friend that I
> knew who traded commodities and asked him about beans. He was long
and his
> comment was "beans in the teen's". I told him he should come down
and look
> at what I was seeing. He never did and bought them all the way
down to the
> mid $5, and went bust (later divorced over this). So I am
thinking, I don't
> know crap about this but this software made a good call, then
maybe, just
> lucky. Later on it made another good call in gold and silver, so I
bought
> the software in mid-1995 and been working with it ever since. Was
it that
> easy after that, nope, never is but it is the main positioning tool
I still
> trade under and almost every week I still learn something new
regarding this
> and other techniques. I don't know about others but that is "cool"
about
> what we do, it is constantly "additive" hopefully.
>
> That is my story how about you?
> don ewers
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 10:18 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Prognosticators Anomymous
>
>
> > > What is your "guiding light", I don't recall I have ever seen
you
> > post that as I recall"?
> >
> > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/realtraders/message/17341
> >
> > I guess you haven't read my posts. Mechanical breadth based
> > systems. I started plotting the hourly A/D line by hand
> > circa 1986-1987.... I also use(d) Elliott Wave.
> >
> > > but the pattern is still there....
> >
> > That's just it: I see your numbers, I don't see an Elliott
> > "5" wave pattern at all. Anyway, the question still remains:
> > if it's a failed fifth and the "top" was in September, it
> > changes everything. What do you do with your count? What does
> > AGET do with the count?
> >
> > >that is hard, as was for me early on.
> >
> > How long you been an EWer Don?
> >
> > BW
> >
> > PS: Thanks Clyde, I'll check the site out.
> >
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Bill,
> > > As my wife frequently likes to remind me "It is not about being
> > right, it is
> > > about making money".
> > >
> > > EW wave has helped me do that. All I see is 5's and 3's and
the
> > pattern
> > > helps me. Pick it apart all you want, but the pattern is still
> > there, deny
> > > it if you chose. The warning signs the software provides (larger
> > time
> > > frames), when a change is about to occur, are normally there,
one
> > needs to
> > > understand and accept, that patterns can expand thats all, for
some
> > that is
> > > hard, as was for me early on.
> > >
> > > What is your "guiding light", I don't recall I have ever seen
you
> > post that
> > > as I recall"?
> > > don ewers
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 9:31 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] Prognosticators Anomymous
> > >
> > >
> > > > Don,
> > > >
> > > > Yup, that's the one. I guess I'm learning just about anything
> > > > can be counted any way AGET wants to count it. As this count
> > > > stands waves 2,3,4,& 5 on your previous post are all 1000% +
> > > > as long (time wise) as your wave 1. I'm sure AGET is useful,
> > > > but is this really Elliott Wave?
> > > >
> > > > Thanks,
> > > >
> > > > BW
> > > >
> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > Bill,
> > > > > OK, got ya, you actually had two posts asking a similar
> > question,
> > > > one under
> > > > > tradewynne with this subject and the other had a
subject "Aget
> > EW
> > > > counts"
> > > > > under B W.
> > > > >
> > > > > Both appear to be the same basically?
> > > > >
> > > > > Here is my gif from the 3-24-00 high to the wave 1 on
> > > > > 4-4-00 low. Again dropping to a 60min and labeling the
count,
> > > > this is what
> > > > > I see. The minor wave 5 of wave 1, exceeded the
normal .618 to
> > > > 1.00 target
> > > > > range which only happens 18% of the time (82% fall in the
> > range).
> > > > Maybe
> > > > > appropriate after a major market top? Does this answer your
> > > > question on
> > > > > both posts. Yes it could be seen as an ABC or what I
> > illustrated.
> > > > This is
> > > > > similar to Nick Ali observation and in fact Tom Joseph's.
> > > > > don ewers
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 3:52 PM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Prognosticators Anomymous
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > We are talking different years. I'm talking about
> > > > > > your Y2K "1" post. You can see the dates on my posts
> > > > > > if you look at the bottom of the charts.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > BW
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > > > Bill,
> > > > > > > Sorry I am late in getting back to you about your wave 1
> > > > question,
> > > > > > I am just
> > > > > > > getting around to reading this list.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Attached is a 60min chart that shows the "internal wave
> > count"
> > > > of
> > > > > > minor
> > > > > > > wave 1 that I showed on the SPC daily chart I had posted
> > just
> > > > prior
> > > > > > on 7-10.
> > > > > > > I dropped to a 60min chart to show it. Am I correct
that
> > your
> > > > > > question was
> > > > > > > about that minor wave 1 or you are asking something
> > different
> > > > (this
> > > > > > is from
> > > > > > > the high on 3-19-02). The gif you included of mine is
> > different
> > > > > > and would
> > > > > > > be from 01-07-02 so I threw that one in too. Not as
pretty
> > and
> > > > sub-
> > > > > > minor
> > > > > > > 4:5 was a very strong retrace and would have shown a
very
> > low
> > > > PTI
> > > > > > in an even
> > > > > > > shorter time frame, an indication that a possible double
> > bottom
> > > > for
> > > > > > wave 5:5
> > > > > > > when compared to 3:5, which turned out to be the case
as it
> > > > turned
> > > > > > out. Let
> > > > > > > me know if these are not what you were asking about.
> > > > > > > don ewers
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > From: "B W" <tradewynne@xxxx>
> > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 10, 2002 11:18 PM
> > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Prognosticators Anomymous
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Don,
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > How do you count the internals of wave "1" ? Looks
like
> > > > > > > > an "ABC" to me. Your chart and an expanded daily
attached.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > BTW, John, even though the SPX is at the bottom of a
> > potential
> > > > > > > > wedge, I'll just wait for a buy signal. All A/D
systems I
> > have
> > > > > > > > are still short.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > BW
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx>
wrote:
> > > > > > > > > John,
> > > > > > > > > Here is what I am "watching":
> > > > > > > > > The charts show a "smaller view", then a "blowup
view"
> > of a
> > > > > > possible
> > > > > > > retrace
> > > > > > > > > to an old median line if we go below prices today
(pit
> > > > only).
> > > > > > If so we
> > > > > > > may
> > > > > > > > > be headed to the blowup view around 888 + or -?
Below
> > > > > > that . . .?
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Smaller view sees some confluence between a "median
line
> > > > set"
> > > > > > and a
> > > > > > > > > "parallel line set" and just below a internal
> > wave "count"
> > > > > > extension
> > > > > > > (the
> > > > > > > > > MOB off the 9-21 is shown below). The larger view
shows
> > > > again
> > > > > > a MOB
> > > > > > > level
> > > > > > > > > off the 9-21 low and more importantly a much older
upper
> > > > median
> > > > > > line set
> > > > > > > off
> > > > > > > > > the high. The question becomes is this a test of
the
> > down
> > > > > > trendline
> > > > > > > (upper
> > > > > > > > > median line dark blue set) if todays lows cave "pit
> > time"
> > > > and
> > > > > > then a
> > > > > > > reflex
> > > > > > > > > rally or . . .well you know?
> > > > > > > > > don ewers
> > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > > From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > > Cc: <MedianLine@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 10, 2002 6:16 PM
> > > > > > > > > Subject: [RT] Prognosticators Anomymous
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > After observing the down trend over the last 3
and 1/2
> > > > > > months, I
> > > > > > > > > > noted that the day after each new yearly S&P low
there
> > > > > > occurred a
> > > > > > > > > > spike the next day that recaptured [at least for a
> > time] a
> > > > > > major part
> > > > > > > > > > of the drop. Based upon this limited "study" I am
> > looking
> > > > for
> > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > same bounce tomorrow.I already made my long
> > committment.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > I would be interested in the forecast by Sailors,
> > fibers,
> > > > > > pivoters ,
> > > > > > > > > > S&R er's, pitchforkers, Hurst-Fouriers and whoever
> > else
> > > > would
> > > > > > like to
> > > > > > > > > > have fun and participate in this guesstimate of
what
> > will
> > > > > > happen
> > > > > > > > > > tomorrow.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Hope some of you can find the time to participate.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Sincerely,
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > John
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email
> > > > > > > >
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> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > --------------------------------------------------------
----
> > ----
> > > > ----
> > > > > > --------
> > > > > > > ----
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > --------------------------------------------------------
----
> > ----
> > > > ----
> > > > > > --------
> > > > > > > ----
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
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