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Ira,
Thanks for the informative feedback. BTW....do you ever sleep? I
Got your message at 10.30pm ..what time was it when you typed
This message? :-)
Adrian
> -----Original Message-----
> From: ira [mailto:irat@xxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Saturday, 6 July 2002 10:32 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What happened to
> the Hurst cycle?
>
>
> I would always exit at the 1/1 in a contra trend trade. That
> is where it is supposed to stop. If it continues, then there
> will be another entry price. As for exits at 2/1 and 3/1
> price objectives, the indicators would tell me to exit. One
> could use multiple contracts and exit 1/3, 1/3 and 1/3 at
> each price level. One could raise their stop as each price
> level is penetrated and price continues to move in the
> direction of the trade. There are several methods of trading
> the system and it is up to the individual trader to use the
> one that best suits his/her trading style. Ira.
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Saturday, July 06, 2002 2:13 AM
> Subject: RE: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What happened to
> the Hurst cycle?
>
>
> > Hi Ira,
> >
> > I do understand what your saying, but my question is what is the
> > driving force that helps you decide whether to exit at the
> 1/1 level
> > or allow it to run to the 3/1 point or further? Do you trade 3
> > contracts for example and
> > then scale out at each target point? Do you exit at the 1/1 if its
> > counter
> > to the higher trend as you suggest? What would happen if it was a
> > counter
> > trend trade but no reversal signal was given, do you hold
> it or scale
> > out
> > regardless? Is there some special factor that makes you
> hold a trade for
> > the
> > 3/1 target as distinct from the 1/1 point?
> >
> > Adrian
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: ira [mailto:irat@xxxxxxxxx]
> > > Sent: Saturday, 6 July 2002 4:32 PM
> > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What happened to the
> > > Hurst cycle?
> > >
> > >
> > > The system has the ability to select at which price objective to
> > > exit the trade. The system provides a specific stop, and three
> > > price objectives for
> > > each trade. No matter which time frame you are trading. The
> > > so called
> > > professional traders are using a system that requires them to use
> > > those ratios in order to be profitable and in many instances they
> > > are not. In
> > > this system you don't cut your loses because your stop is
> > > predefined. If price X is hit you are wrong. It is as
> > > simple as that. The 1/1, 2/1, and 3/1 trades are all derived
> > > at exactly the same time and are part of the same trade.
> > > Contra trend trades usually reverse at the 1/1 price
> > > objective. As I have said before a data set from a chart is
> > > not definable as to time. You have X number of bars and the
> > > formulas or indicators can't tell whether those bars took a
> > > day to form or 3 minutes, they are just bars with a high, a
> > > low and a close. Then why is it so hard to believe that all
> > > three probabilities can be found on the same time frame and
> > > on the same chart. I didn't invent anything new and
> > > wonderful. I didn't go to Ararat or any other locale
> > > searching for the Holy Grail. I realized that I wasn't the
> > > greatest genius in the world and that to try and re invent
> > > the wheel would be a stupid attempt. So why waste my time
> > > back testing hundreds of different theories, possibilities or
> > > a pet hunch. I went to the accepted guru's. Before I
> > > started my research I wrote out a set of standards that had
> > > to be met by the final system. It had to be specific. It
> > > had to provide specific entry and exit prices. It had to
> > > provide a specific stop. It had to have a high probability of
> > > success. It had to have a maximum of 3 indicators, less if
> > > possible. I ended up with 2. It had to be simple to operate.
> > > It had to work on all time frames. It had to work on
> > > stocks, futures and indexes. It took me over a year to put it
> > > together, and it works as it was laid out in my requirements
> > > list. Everything I use has been out there for at least 30
> > > years and in many instances over 70 years. My interpretation
> > > of the information may be a little different then intended,
> > > but I understand what the indicator is telling me and not
> > > going blindly along with no idea for its basis. My formal
> > > education was in engineering so I wanted specifics not guess
> > > work, and that is what I got. Ira.
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Friday, July 05, 2002 9:13 PM
> > > Subject: RE: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What happened to the
> > > Hurst cycle?
> > >
> > >
> > > > Ira,
> > > >
> > > > Are you suggesting your method has the ability to choose
> > > when a 1/1,
> > > > 2/1 or 3/1 reward/risk is available? Most people have
> difficultly
> > > > trading in the right direction let alone knowing in advance how
> > > > far the trade will likely move. Most professional traders will
> > > > suggest only taking
> > > trades where
> > > > the
> > > > reward/risk is > 2 or maybe 3/1. The intention being
> to hold your
> > > > winners and cut your losses.
> > > >
> > > > So, I can only assume that the 3/1 trades are derived
> > > differently, or
> > > > occur in a very different market setup situation than the
> > > 1/1 trades?
> > > > Would that
> > > > be correct? I'd normally think a 1/1 trade was perhaps a
> > > day trade, but
> > > > you
> > > > say the 60,70 & 80% trades occur on all time frames, so
> > > there is a piece
> > > > of the
> > > > puzzle missing...can you fill us in a little please? :-)
> > > >
> > > > Thanks
> > > >
> > > > Adrian
> > > >
> > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > From: ira [mailto:irat@xxxxxxxxx]
> > > > > Sent: Saturday, 6 July 2002 12:30 AM
> > > > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What
> happened to the
> > > > > Hurst cycle?
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > I trade the one that is most applicable at the time. Some
> > > > > people seem to think that there is one which is the best to
> > > > > trade based upon some mathematical formula. They and you are
> > > > > wrong.
> > > The chart
> > > > > tells you which one is the best price objective to exit
> > > at not some
> > > > > formula that is supposed to maximize profit. Ira
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Friday, July 05, 2002 5:38 AM
> > > > > Subject: RE: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What
> happened to the
> > > > > Hurst cycle?
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Ira,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Which do you trade..the 80%, 70% or 60% scenario...there is
> > > > > only one
> > > > > > answer that's correct for maximising profits. I find the
> > > > > expectancy's
> > > > > > pretty hard to believe still :-)
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Adrian
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > > From: ira [mailto:irat@xxxxxxxxx]
> > > > > > > Sent: Friday, 5 July 2002 4:37 AM
> > > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > > Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What
> > > happened to the
> > > > > > > Hurst cycle?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > My system has an 80% probability for 1/1 return, 70% for
> > > > > 2/1 and 60%
> > > > > > > for 3/1 and it works in any time frame so commissions and
> > > > > operating
> > > > > > > costs become negligible. As for slippage I have found
> > > > > very little in
> > > > > > > highly liquid markets when trading shorter time
> > > frames. I very
> > > > > > > seldom trade the NY markets so rip offs aren't a factor.
> > > > > Of course
> > > > > > > there is always that 3% factor and only a hedge can cover
> > > > > that. If
> > > > > > > you don't carry over night, then gap openings don't
> > > > > become a factor
> > > > > > > and if one carries overnight and uses options then
> > > the risk is
> > > > > > > defined and there is no slippage. Ira
> > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2002 7:32 AM
> > > > > > > Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What
> > > happened to the
> > > > > > > Hurst cycle?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Ira,
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Commisions aren't the only factor in calculating
> > > > > > > transaction costs.
> > > > > > > > There is slippage and various overhead charges such
> > > as office,
> > > > > > > > computer, data,
> > > > > > > all
> > > > > > > > of which go up in cost with the shorter time frame.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > One way to look at this is profitability
> frequency. Let's
> > > > > > > say you are
> > > > > > > > trading S&P. If you can make $10 more than five
> time more
> > > > > > > often that
> > > > > > > > you can make $50, then it is probably better to
> shoot for
> > > > > > > the $10. On
> > > > > > > > the other hand, if $!0 occurs less than 1/5 of the time
> > > > > > > that $50 does,
> > > > > > > > then you should shoot for the $50. Ideally,
> one could put
> > > > > > > this on a
> > > > > > > > distribution curve and then one should strive to get to
> > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > middle of
> > > > > > > > the curve where the frequency of dollars earned is
> > > > > > > > highest.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Cheers,
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Norman
> > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > From: "ira" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2002 9:52 AM
> > > > > > > > Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What
> happened
> > > > > > > > to
> > > > > > > the Hurst
> > > > > > > cycle?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > At $5 for stock trades up to 5000 shares and $6-$8 a
> > > > > > > round turn on
> > > > > > > > futures
> > > > > > > > > it doesn't take much to make a profit and even
> > > less to just
> > > > > > > > > break even. Commissions aren't the factor that they
> > > > > used to be.
> > > > > > > > > Even options commissions are down to a nominal amount
> > > > > now. Ira
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > > From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2002 6:41 AM
> > > > > > > > > Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What
> > > > > happened to the
> > > > > > > > > Hurst
> > > > > > > > cycle?
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Ira,
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Let's not forget those transaction costs. They can
> > > > > make all
> > > > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > difference
> > > > > > > > > > between a profitable and losing method.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Cheers,
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Norman
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > > > From: "ira" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2002 9:38 AM
> > > > > > > > > > Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What
> > > happened
> > > > > > > > > > to the Hurst
> > > > > > > > > cycle?
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > Trading time frames is an interesting
> > > question as is the
> > > > > > > > > > > frequency
> > > > > > > of
> > > > > > > > > > > trading. If I posted 20 charts with the header,
> > > > > > > prices and time
> > > > > > > > missing
> > > > > > > > > > > from the 3 sides of the chart, I would defy
> > > > > anyone to tell
> > > > > > > > > > > me
> > > > > > > whether
> > > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > charts are daily, weekly or 3 min charts. A bar
> > > > > is a bar is
> > > > > > > > > > > a bar.
> > > > > > > No
> > > > > > > > > > > matter what system you use, if is governed by
> > > the bars
> > > > > > > > > > > action,
> > > > > > > whether
> > > > > > > > > you
> > > > > > > > > > > are using highs, lows, closes, or a combination of
> > > > > > > the three and
> > > > > > > > > > > a
> > > > > > > > > > divisor,
> > > > > > > > > > > it is still price action. So if a system is
> > > viable it
> > > > > > > > > > > should work
> > > > > > > on
> > > > > > > > > any
> > > > > > > > > > > time frame. Let us leave out planetary
> > > influences as I
> > > > > > > > > > > am not
> > > > > > > > conversant
> > > > > > > > > > > enough in that area to make an argument one
> > > way or the
> > > > > > > > > > > other,
> > > > > > > although
> > > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > Delta system has a intra day function. If all
> > > > > > > charts are the same
> > > > > > > as
> > > > > > > > > far
> > > > > > > > > > > as content is concerned then the degree of risk
> > > > > > > > > > > would
> > > > > > > decrease
> > > > > > > > > > > with
> > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > reduction in time frames. The price
> range of a bar
> > > > > > > on a weekly
> > > > > > > chart
> > > > > > > > > > should
> > > > > > > > > > > be greater then that on a daily chart and
> that on a
> > > > > > > daily chart
> > > > > > > should
> > > > > > > > > be
> > > > > > > > > > > greater then that on a 60 min. chart,
> etc., all the
> > > > > > > way down to
> > > > > > > > > > > a
> > > > > > > nano
> > > > > > > > > > > second chart. If price range is reduced,
> then risk
> > > > > > > is reduced,
> > > > > > > > > > > as a
> > > > > > > > > stop
> > > > > > > > > > > governed by price rather then pain would
> be actuated
> > > > > > > sooner. A
> > > > > > > > > > > stop
> > > > > > > > on
> > > > > > > > > a
> > > > > > > > > > > daily chart might be 10 points where the
> stop on a 3
> > > > > > > min chart
> > > > > > > > > > > could
> > > > > > > > be
> > > > > > > > > > 1/2
> > > > > > > > > > > a point. Trading is all about volatility, price
> > > > > range, over
> > > > > > > > > > > a
> > > > > > > > specific
> > > > > > > > > > > period of time. Some items have to be
> traded over
> > > > > > > > > > > an extended
> > > > > > > period
> > > > > > > > > > > because of low volatility yet consistent
> > > movement in one
> > > > > > > > > > > direction.
> > > > > > > > > Others
> > > > > > > > > > > can be traded very easily on a 1 minute chart.
> > > > > both with the
> > > > > > > > > > > same
> > > > > > > > degree
> > > > > > > > > > of
> > > > > > > > > > > risk because the price range of the bars is
> > > > > > > comparable. A stock
> > > > > > > could
> > > > > > > > > move
> > > > > > > > > > > a 1/2 a point a day for $50 while the S&P
> moves 1/2
> > > > > > > point a tick
> > > > > > > > > > > for
> > > > > > > > > $125
> > > > > > > > > > > and grains a penny for $50. So if you are
> > > trading any
> > > > > > > > > > > system that
> > > > > > > is
> > > > > > > > > > > governed by price movement whether it be Gann,
> > > > > Eliot, Hurst,
> > > > > > > > > > > Fib.
> > > > > > > > > numbers
> > > > > > > > > > > then risk should be reduced as you step
> down in time
> > > > > > > frames and
> > > > > > > > > > > the compounding effect increased as the number of
> > > > > > > > > > > cycles, movements of
> > > > > > > > price
> > > > > > > > > > > action up and down, occur more frequently. So if
> > > > > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > bars, as
> > > > > > > > > > > an
> > > > > > > > > example,
> > > > > > > > > > > are cycling from low to low every 10 bars, then
> > > > > > > > > > > there
> > > > > > > would be 2
> > > > > > > > trades
> > > > > > > > > > > every 30 minutes on a 3 min. chart and
> every 10 days
> > > > > > > on a daily
> > > > > > > chart.
> > > > > > > > > > > There would be one trend trade and one contra
> > > > > trend trade.
> > > > > > > > > > > Granted
> > > > > > > > that
> > > > > > > > > > > this is all dependent upon sufficient
> volatility to
> > > > > > > justify the
> > > > > > > trade,
> > > > > > > > > but
> > > > > > > > > > > the trades would be there. And yes, my
> system works
> > > > > > > in all time
> > > > > > > > frames
> > > > > > > > > > > with varying degrees of risk, but the
> same degree of
> > > > > > > > > > > probability.
> > > > > > > Ira
> > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > > > > From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2002 5:02 AM
> > > > > > > > > > > Subject: RE: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What
> > > > > > > happened to the
> > > > > > > Hurst
> > > > > > > > > > cycle?
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > M. Simms,
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > The most optimal trading period in theory is
> > > > > the distance
> > > > > > > > > > > > between
> > > > > > > > > ticks.
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > If you had a system which could trade from tick
> > > > > to tic and
> > > > > > > > > > > > your
> > > > > > > > costs
> > > > > > > > > > > > were less than one tick...
> > > > > > > > > > > > And you could trade unlimited
> volume..then in time
> > > > > > > you would
> > > > > > > > > > > > own
> > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > > universe.
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > Now back to reality....the optimum time
> period all
> > > > > > > depends on
> > > > > > > > > > > > your system. Simple as that. A floor trader can
> > > > > compound
> > > > > > > > > > > > returns far quicker than any of
> > > > > > > us...but
> > > > > > > > > > > > like any trader, that
> > > > > > > > > > > > isn't the real problem..the problem is you will
> > > > > > > > > > > > run into
> > > > > > > difficulty
> > > > > > > > > > > > getting filled with low slippage. Ultimately it
> > > > > > > > > > > > ALWAYS becomes a trade-off of trying
> > > > > > > to trade as
> > > > > > > short
> > > > > > > > a
> > > > > > > > > > > > time as possible to maximise
> compounding benefits
> > > > > > > but at the
> > > > > > > > > > > > same
> > > > > > > > > time,
> > > > > > > > > > > > long enough that you can actually keep slippage
> > > > > in check
> > > > > > > > > > > > so the
> > > > > > > > > systems
> > > > > > > > > > > > still keeps working. Once again, it all comes
> > > > > down to the
> > > > > > > > > > > > system
> > > > > > > you
> > > > > > > > > > > > decide to use.
> > > > > > > > > > > > Answering which is the best system is a complex
> > > > > > > question..one
> > > > > > > > > > > > best
> > > > > > > > > dealt
> > > > > > > > > > > > with by reading Ralph Vinces books.
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > Adrian
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > > > > > > > > From: M. Simms
> [mailto:prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > > > > > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, 4 July 2002 8:41 AM
> > > > > > > > > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > > > > > > > > Cc: Ed Kiers
> > > > > > > > > > > > > Subject: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What
> > > > > > > happened to the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > Hurst cycle?
> > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > Jim - do you have any further research
> > > > > references that
> > > > > > > > > > > > > indicate : EXACTLY HOW SHORT OF A
> HOLDING PERIOD
> > > > > > > is optimal
> > > > > > > > > > > > > ?
> > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > and of course, based on that HOLDING PERIOD,
> > > > > > > which should be
> > > > > > > > > > > > > equivalent to the AVG. LENGTH OF TRADE, what
> > > > > is the BAR
> > > > > > > > > > > > > INTERVAL that is best for that length.
> > > Once this is
> > > > > > > > > > > > > determined, then implied is the vital
> LENGTH OF
> > > > > > > TRADE to BAR
> > > > > > > > > > > > > INTERVAL ratio.
> > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > What I am getting at is this:
> > > > > > > > > > > > > if your trades are averaging 21
> trading hours or
> > > > > > > so, should
> > > > > > > > > > > > > the trader be using 15 min, 30 min, 1
> > > hour, bars, or
> > > > > > > which
> > > > > > > > ?
> > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > From: Jim White [mailto:jwhite43@xxxxxxx]
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 5:51 PM
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to
> the Hurst
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > cycle?
> > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > Unfortunately Norman, the data does
> not agree.
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > Research has
> > > > > > > > > > > > > shown tha
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > ROI decreases with holding period - so
> > > > > taking quick
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > profits
> > > > > > > and
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > compounding the results is the way
> to maximize
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > profits. The
> > > > > > > data
> > > > > > > > > is
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > sighted in "A Random Walk Down Wall Street",
> > > > > > > page 404. Of
> > > > > > > > > > > > > course you
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > need a trading methodology
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > to reliably capture the short term
> moves. Jim
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > From: "Norman Winski"
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 2:38 PM
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the
> > > Hurst cycle?
> > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > From: "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 5:16 PM
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the
> > > > > Hurst cycle?
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I have followed the discussion on
> > > Hurst cycles
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > with
> > > > > > > silence
> > > > > > > > > but
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > now I believe it is time to speak
> > > up. The Hurst
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > book
> > > > > > > > > > > > > actually has
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > some very significant content
> however his
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > basic
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > premise has been proven to be
> > > incorrect. Hurst
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > presents
> > > > > > > > > several
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > statements
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > with out verification. For example "
> > > > > The impact of
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > wars,
> > > > > > > > > global
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > financial
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > crisis, and all other similar
> > > events on market
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > price
> > > > > > > action
> > > > > > > > is
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > utterly negligible." It has been shown
> > > > > through the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > application of
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > chaotic models
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > that these impulses do have an
> > > impact although
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > they are
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > limited in their
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > duration.
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The use of static cycles to forecast
> > > > > future price
> > > > > > > > > > > > > movement is also
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > doomed
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > to
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > failure. There have been many
> attempts to
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > duplicate and
> > > > > > > > > > > > > forecast
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > price action with composite
> static cycles
> > > > > > > and all have
> > > > > > > > failed
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > simply because
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > market is not composed of static
> > > > > cycles. Even an
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > attempt
> > > > > > > to
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > determine
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > current dominant cycles will
> fail because
> > > > > > > the cycles
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > will
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > change due to
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > lateset conditions. The new information
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > may
> > > > > > > or may not
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > be
> > > > > > > in
> > > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > direction
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > of the old cycles.A much more likely
> > > > > > > composition, also
> > > > > > > > > > > > > supported
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > by
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > studies
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > of chaotic models, is that the market
> > > > > is composed
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > of
> > > > > > > dynamic
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > cycles with
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > diminishing amplitude. Since these
> > > cycles are
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > always
> > > > > > > > > > > > > changing, due
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > to
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > latest impulse to impact the
> > > market, they are
> > > > > > > > > > > > > predictable only in
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > very
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > short term. The real value of
> Hurst's work
> > > > > > > is to show
> > > > > > > > > > > > > that profits
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > are maximized by short term
> > > trading. Jim White
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Jim,
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I was going to stay out of this
> > > until your last
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > statement
> > > > > > > ".
> > > > > > > > > The
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > real
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > value
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > of Hurst's work is to show that
> profits are
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > maximized
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > by
> > > > > > > > short
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > term trading." Most of the studies I have
> > > > > > > seen indicate
> > > > > > > that
> > > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > more you
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > trade
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > the greater your risk of ruin. Each time
> > > > > you trade
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > you
> > > > > > > > > > > > > take a risk.
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > more
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > you trade, the greater the risk.
> Very few
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > of
> > > > > > > the really
> > > > > > > > > > > > > big traders
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - investors such as George Soros or Warren
> > > > > > > Buffett made
> > > > > > > > > > > > > their money
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > doing
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > alot
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > of short term trades. The big money is
> > > > > made riding
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > big moves and
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > not getting in and out. Some of the
> > > > > saviest traders
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I met
> > > > > > > > > > > > > during my
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Chicago
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > days
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > made their big money on a few big moves.
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The
> > > > > > > short term
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > trading was just
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > rent money. I propose to ammend the above
> > > > > > > statement to
> > > > > > > read,
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > "...that brokers profits are maximized by
> > > > > short term
> > > > > > > trading."
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Regards,
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Norman
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > From: "Clyde Lee"
> <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 10:34 AM
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Hurst cycle?
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > More likely the parameters for
> > > > > generation of the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > prediction of
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > the cycle were wrong.
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > We will have to wait for the
> > > Centered Moving
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Averages
> > > > > > > > > > > > > to catch
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > up with the data to make the kind
> > > of judgment
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > you
> > > > > > > > > > > > > have made with
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > insufficient data.
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Remember, the REALTIME values for the
> > > > > > > Hurst channels
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > are
> > > > > > > > an
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ATTEMPT to predict what the
> real values
> > > > > > > of the CMAs
> > > > > > > > > > > > > will be and
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > that ATTEMPT to estimate can be
> > > > > really wrong at
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > times.
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Everyone needs to understand that the
> > > > > attempt to
> > > > > > > estimate
> > > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > realtime CMA values is
> strictly that --
> > > > > > > an attempt.
> > > > > > > > > > > > > Currently
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > we are using classical Fourier
> > > > > analysis and have
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > limited ourselves to only 3
> components
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > to
> > > > > > > construct
> > > > > > > > > > > > > envelopes. We may
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > be using too many or too few -- at
> > > > > this stage in
> > > > > > > > > > > > > development I
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > do not have a good feeling of what it
> > > > > takes to
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > better
> > > > > > > > > > > > > match the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > eventual values of the CMAs but you
> > > > > can bet we
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > are
> > > > > > > > > > > > > still working
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > on it.
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Clyde
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> - - - - -
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -
> > > > > > > - - - - - - -
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO
> (Home
> > > > > > > of SwingMachine)
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > SYTECH Corporation email:
> > > > > > > clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office:
> > > > > > > (713) 783-9540
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Houston, TX 77063 Fax:
> > > > > > > (713) 783-1092
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Details at:
> > > > > > > www.theswingmachine.com
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> - - - - -
> > > > > > > - - - - - -
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - -
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > From: "bondo92677"
> > > > > <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03,
> 2002 12:25 PM
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Subject: [RT] What happened to the
> > > > > Hurst cycle?
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I guess we fell into the 10% of the
> > > > > time its
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > wrong.
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
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