Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?

["ira" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>]

I would always exit at the 1/1 in a contra trend trade.  That is where it is
supposed to stop.  If it continues, then there will be another entry price.
As for exits at 2/1 and 3/1 price objectives,  the indicators would tell me
to exit.  One could use multiple contracts and exit 1/3, 1/3 and 1/3 at each
price level.  One could raise their stop as each price level is penetrated
and price continues to move in the direction of the trade.  There are
several methods of trading the system and it is up to the individual trader
to use the one that best suits his/her trading style.  Ira.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, July 06, 2002 2:13 AM
Subject: RE: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?


> Hi Ira,
>
> I do understand what your saying, but my question is what is the driving
> force that helps you decide whether to exit at the 1/1 level or allow it
> to
> run to the 3/1 point or further?  Do you trade 3 contracts for example
> and
> then scale out at each target point? Do you exit at the 1/1 if its
> counter
> to the higher trend as you suggest?  What would happen if it was a
> counter
> trend trade but no reversal signal was given, do you hold it or scale
> out
> regardless? Is there some special factor that makes you hold a trade for
> the
> 3/1 target as distinct from the 1/1 point?
>
> Adrian
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: ira [mailto:irat@xxxxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Saturday, 6 July 2002 4:32 PM
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What happened to
> > the Hurst cycle?
> >
> >
> > The system has the ability to select at which price objective
> > to exit the trade.  The system provides a specific stop, and
> > three price objectives for
> > each trade. No matter which time frame you are trading.   The
> > so called
> > professional traders are using a system that requires them to
> > use those
> > ratios in order to be profitable and in many instances they
> > are not.   In
> > this system you don't cut your loses because your stop is
> > predefined.  If price X is hit you are wrong.  It is as
> > simple as that. The 1/1, 2/1, and 3/1 trades are all derived
> > at exactly the same time and are part of the same trade.
> > Contra trend trades usually reverse at the 1/1 price
> > objective.  As I have said before a data set from a chart is
> > not definable as to time.  You have X number of bars and the
> > formulas or indicators can't tell whether those bars took a
> > day to form or 3 minutes, they are just bars with a high, a
> > low and a close.  Then why is it so hard to believe that all
> > three probabilities can be found on the same time frame and
> > on the same chart.  I didn't invent anything new and
> > wonderful.  I didn't go to Ararat or any other locale
> > searching for the Holy Grail.  I realized that  I wasn't the
> > greatest genius in the world and that to try and re invent
> > the wheel would be a stupid attempt.  So why waste my time
> > back testing hundreds of different theories, possibilities or
> > a pet hunch.  I went to the accepted guru's.  Before I
> > started my research I wrote out a set of standards that had
> > to be met by the final system.  It had to be specific.  It
> > had to provide specific entry and exit prices.  It had to
> > provide a specific stop. It had to have a high probability of
> > success. It had to have a maximum of 3 indicators, less if
> > possible. I ended up with 2.  It had to be simple to operate.
> >  It had to work on all time frames.  It had to work on
> > stocks, futures and indexes. It took me over a year to put it
> > together, and it works as it was laid out in my requirements
> > list.  Everything I use has been out there for at least 30
> > years and in many instances over 70 years.  My interpretation
> > of the information may be a little different then intended,
> > but I understand what the indicator is telling me and not
> > going blindly along with no idea for its basis.  My formal
> > education was in engineering so I wanted specifics not guess
> > work, and that is what I got.  Ira.
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Friday, July 05, 2002 9:13 PM
> > Subject: RE: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What happened to
> > the Hurst cycle?
> >
> >
> > > Ira,
> > >
> > > Are you suggesting your method has the ability to choose
> > when a 1/1,
> > > 2/1 or 3/1 reward/risk is available?  Most people have difficultly
> > > trading in the right direction let alone knowing in advance how far
> > > the trade will likely
> > > move.  Most professional traders will suggest only taking
> > trades where
> > > the
> > > reward/risk is > 2 or maybe 3/1.  The intention being to hold your
> > > winners
> > > and cut your losses.
> > >
> > > So, I can only assume that the 3/1 trades are derived
> > differently, or
> > > occur in a very different market setup situation than the
> > 1/1 trades?
> > > Would that
> > > be correct? I'd normally think a 1/1 trade was perhaps a
> > day trade, but
> > > you
> > > say the 60,70 & 80% trades occur on all time frames, so
> > there is a piece
> > > of the
> > > puzzle missing...can you fill us in a little please? :-)
> > >
> > > Thanks
> > >
> > > Adrian
> > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: ira [mailto:irat@xxxxxxxxx]
> > > > Sent: Saturday, 6 July 2002 12:30 AM
> > > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What happened to the
> > > > Hurst cycle?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > I trade the one that is most applicable at the time.  Some people
> > > > seem to think that there is one which is the best to trade based
> > > > upon some mathematical formula.  They and you are wrong.
> > The chart
> > > > tells you which one is the best price objective to exit
> > at not some
> > > > formula that is supposed to maximize profit.  Ira
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Friday, July 05, 2002 5:38 AM
> > > > Subject: RE: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What happened to
> > > > the Hurst cycle?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Ira,
> > > > >
> > > > > Which do you trade..the 80%, 70% or 60% scenario...there is
> > > > only one
> > > > > answer that's correct for maximising profits. I find the
> > > > expectancy's
> > > > > pretty hard to believe still :-)
> > > > >
> > > > > Adrian
> > > > >
> > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > From: ira [mailto:irat@xxxxxxxxx]
> > > > > > Sent: Friday, 5 July 2002 4:37 AM
> > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What
> > happened to the
> > > > > > Hurst cycle?
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > My system has an 80% probability for 1/1 return, 70% for
> > > > 2/1 and 60%
> > > > > > for 3/1 and it works in any time frame so commissions and
> > > > operating
> > > > > > costs become negligible. As for slippage I have found
> > > > very little in
> > > > > > highly liquid markets when trading shorter time
> > frames.  I very
> > > > > > seldom trade the NY markets so rip offs aren't a factor.
> > > > Of course
> > > > > > there is always that 3% factor and only a hedge can cover
> > > > that.  If
> > > > > > you don't carry over night, then gap openings don't
> > > > become a factor
> > > > > > and if one carries overnight and  uses options then
> > the risk is
> > > > > > defined and there is no slippage.  Ira
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2002 7:32 AM
> > > > > > Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What
> > happened to the
> > > > > > Hurst cycle?
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > Ira,
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >  Commisions aren't the only factor in calculating
> > > > > > transaction costs.
> > > > > > > There is slippage and various overhead charges such
> > as office,
> > > > > > > computer, data,
> > > > > > all
> > > > > > > of which go up in cost with the shorter time frame.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >  One way to look at this is profitability frequency. Let's
> > > > > > say you are
> > > > > > > trading S&P. If you can make $10 more than five time more
> > > > > > often that
> > > > > > > you can make $50, then it is probably better to shoot for
> > > > > > the $10. On
> > > > > > > the other hand, if $!0 occurs less than 1/5 of the time
> > > > > > that $50 does,
> > > > > > > then you should shoot for the $50.  Ideally, one could put
> > > > > > this on a
> > > > > > > distribution curve and then one should strive to get to the
> > > > > > middle of
> > > > > > > the curve where the frequency of dollars earned is highest.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Cheers,
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Norman
> > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > From: "ira" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2002 9:52 AM
> > > > > > > Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What happened to
> > > > > > the Hurst
> > > > > > cycle?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > At $5 for stock trades up to 5000 shares and $6-$8  a
> > > > > > round turn on
> > > > > > > futures
> > > > > > > > it doesn't take much to make a profit and even
> > less to just
> > > > > > > > break even. Commissions aren't the factor that they
> > > > used to be.
> > > > > > > > Even options commissions are down to a nominal amount
> > > > now.  Ira
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2002 6:41 AM
> > > > > > > > Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What
> > > > happened to the
> > > > > > > > Hurst
> > > > > > > cycle?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Ira,
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >  Let's not forget those transaction costs. They can
> > > > make all
> > > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > difference
> > > > > > > > > between a profitable and losing method.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Cheers,
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Norman
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > > From: "ira" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2002 9:38 AM
> > > > > > > > > Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What
> > happened
> > > > > > > > > to the Hurst
> > > > > > > > cycle?
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Trading time frames is an interesting
> > question as is the
> > > > > > > > > > frequency
> > > > > > of
> > > > > > > > > > trading.  If I posted 20 charts with the header,
> > > > > > prices and time
> > > > > > > missing
> > > > > > > > > > from the 3 sides of the chart, I would defy
> > > > anyone to tell
> > > > > > > > > > me
> > > > > > whether
> > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > charts are daily, weekly or 3 min charts. A bar
> > > > is a bar is
> > > > > > > > > > a bar.
> > > > > > No
> > > > > > > > > > matter what system you use, if is governed by
> > the bars
> > > > > > > > > > action,
> > > > > > whether
> > > > > > > > you
> > > > > > > > > > are using highs, lows, closes, or a combination of
> > > > > > the three and
> > > > > > > > > > a
> > > > > > > > > divisor,
> > > > > > > > > > it is still price action.  So if a system is
> > viable it
> > > > > > > > > > should work
> > > > > > on
> > > > > > > > any
> > > > > > > > > > time frame. Let us leave out planetary
> > influences as I
> > > > > > > > > > am not
> > > > > > > conversant
> > > > > > > > > > enough in that area to make an argument one
> > way or the
> > > > > > > > > > other,
> > > > > > although
> > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > Delta system has a intra day function.   If all
> > > > > > charts are the same
> > > > > > as
> > > > > > > > far
> > > > > > > > > > as content is concerned then the degree of risk would
> > > > > > decrease
> > > > > > > > > > with
> > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > reduction in time frames.  The price range of a bar
> > > > > > on a weekly
> > > > > > chart
> > > > > > > > > should
> > > > > > > > > > be greater then that on a daily chart and that on a
> > > > > > daily chart
> > > > > > should
> > > > > > > > be
> > > > > > > > > > greater then that on a 60 min. chart, etc., all the
> > > > > > way down to
> > > > > > > > > > a
> > > > > > nano
> > > > > > > > > > second chart.  If price range is reduced, then risk
> > > > > > is reduced,
> > > > > > > > > > as a
> > > > > > > > stop
> > > > > > > > > > governed by price rather then pain would be actuated
> > > > > > sooner.  A
> > > > > > > > > > stop
> > > > > > > on
> > > > > > > > a
> > > > > > > > > > daily chart might be 10 points where the stop on a 3
> > > > > > min chart
> > > > > > > > > > could
> > > > > > > be
> > > > > > > > > 1/2
> > > > > > > > > > a point.  Trading is all about volatility, price
> > > > range, over
> > > > > > > > > > a
> > > > > > > specific
> > > > > > > > > > period of time.  Some items have to be traded over an
> > > > > > > > > > extended
> > > > > > period
> > > > > > > > > > because of low volatility yet consistent
> > movement in one
> > > > > > > > > > direction.
> > > > > > > > Others
> > > > > > > > > > can be traded very easily on a 1 minute chart.
> > > > both with the
> > > > > > > > > > same
> > > > > > > degree
> > > > > > > > > of
> > > > > > > > > > risk because the price range of the bars is
> > > > > > comparable. A stock
> > > > > > could
> > > > > > > > move
> > > > > > > > > > a 1/2 a point a day for $50 while the S&P moves 1/2
> > > > > > point a tick
> > > > > > > > > > for
> > > > > > > > $125
> > > > > > > > > > and grains a penny for $50.  So if you are
> > trading any
> > > > > > > > > > system that
> > > > > > is
> > > > > > > > > > governed by price movement whether it be Gann,
> > > > Eliot, Hurst,
> > > > > > > > > > Fib.
> > > > > > > > numbers
> > > > > > > > > > then risk should be reduced as you step down in time
> > > > > > frames and
> > > > > > > > > > the compounding effect increased as the number of
> > > > > > > > > > cycles, movements of
> > > > > > > price
> > > > > > > > > > action up and down, occur more frequently.  So if the
> > > > > > bars, as
> > > > > > > > > > an
> > > > > > > > example,
> > > > > > > > > > are cycling from low to low every 10 bars, then there
> > > > > > would be 2
> > > > > > > trades
> > > > > > > > > > every 30 minutes on a 3 min. chart and every 10 days
> > > > > > on a daily
> > > > > > chart.
> > > > > > > > > > There would be one trend trade and one contra
> > > > trend trade.
> > > > > > > > > > Granted
> > > > > > > that
> > > > > > > > > > this is all dependent upon sufficient volatility to
> > > > > > justify the
> > > > > > trade,
> > > > > > > > but
> > > > > > > > > > the trades would be there.   And yes, my system works
> > > > > > in all time
> > > > > > > frames
> > > > > > > > > > with varying degrees of risk, but the same degree of
> > > > > > > > > > probability.
> > > > > > Ira
> > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > > > From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2002 5:02 AM
> > > > > > > > > > Subject: RE: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What
> > > > > > happened to the
> > > > > > Hurst
> > > > > > > > > cycle?
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > M. Simms,
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > The most optimal trading period in theory is
> > > > the distance
> > > > > > > > > > > between
> > > > > > > > ticks.
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > If you had a system which could trade from tick
> > > > to tic and
> > > > > > > > > > > your
> > > > > > > costs
> > > > > > > > > > > were less than one tick...
> > > > > > > > > > > And you could trade unlimited volume..then in time
> > > > > > you would
> > > > > > > > > > > own
> > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > universe.
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > Now back to reality....the optimum time period all
> > > > > > depends on
> > > > > > > > > > > your system. Simple as that. A floor trader can
> > > > compound
> > > > > > > > > > > returns far quicker than any of
> > > > > > us...but
> > > > > > > > > > > like any trader, that
> > > > > > > > > > > isn't the real problem..the problem is you will run
> > > > > > > > > > > into
> > > > > > difficulty
> > > > > > > > > > > getting filled with low slippage.
> > > > > > > > > > > Ultimately it ALWAYS becomes a trade-off of trying
> > > > > > to trade as
> > > > > > short
> > > > > > > a
> > > > > > > > > > > time as possible to maximise compounding benefits
> > > > > > but at the
> > > > > > > > > > > same
> > > > > > > > time,
> > > > > > > > > > > long enough that you can actually keep slippage
> > > > in check
> > > > > > > > > > > so the
> > > > > > > > systems
> > > > > > > > > > > still keeps working. Once again, it all comes
> > > > down to the
> > > > > > > > > > > system
> > > > > > you
> > > > > > > > > > > decide to use.
> > > > > > > > > > > Answering which is the best system is a complex
> > > > > > question..one
> > > > > > > > > > > best
> > > > > > > > dealt
> > > > > > > > > > > with by reading Ralph Vinces books.
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > Adrian
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > > > > > > > From: M. Simms [mailto:prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > > > > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, 4 July 2002 8:41 AM
> > > > > > > > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > > > > > > > Cc: Ed Kiers
> > > > > > > > > > > > Subject: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What
> > > > > > happened to the
> > > > > > > > > > > > Hurst cycle?
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > Jim - do you have any further research
> > > > references that
> > > > > > > > > > > > indicate : EXACTLY HOW SHORT OF A HOLDING PERIOD
> > > > > > is optimal
> > > > > > > > > > > > ?
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > and of course, based on that HOLDING PERIOD,
> > > > > > which should be
> > > > > > > > > > > > equivalent to the AVG. LENGTH OF TRADE, what
> > > > is the BAR
> > > > > > > > > > > > INTERVAL that is best for that length.
> > Once this is
> > > > > > > > > > > > determined, then implied is the vital LENGTH OF
> > > > > > TRADE to BAR
> > > > > > > > > > > > INTERVAL ratio.
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > What I am getting at is this:
> > > > > > > > > > > > if your trades are averaging 21 trading hours or
> > > > > > so, should
> > > > > > > > > > > > the trader be using 15 min, 30 min, 1
> > hour, bars, or
> > > > > > which
> > > > > > > ?
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > > > > > > > > From: Jim White [mailto:jwhite43@xxxxxxx]
> > > > > > > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 5:51 PM
> > > > > > > > > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > > > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst
> > > > > > > > > > > > > cycle?
> > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > Unfortunately Norman, the data does not agree.
> > > > > > > > > > > > > Research has
> > > > > > > > > > > > shown tha
> > > > > > > > > > > > > ROI decreases with holding period  - so
> > > > taking quick
> > > > > > > > > > > > > profits
> > > > > > and
> > > > > > > > > > > > > compounding the results is the way to maximize
> > > > > > > > > > > > > profits. The
> > > > > > data
> > > > > > > > is
> > > > > > > > > > > > > sighted in "A Random Walk Down Wall Street",
> > > > > > page  404. Of
> > > > > > > > > > > > course you
> > > > > > > > > > > > > need a trading methodology
> > > > > > > > > > > > > to reliably capture the short term moves. Jim
> > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > > > > > > From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 2:38 PM
> > > > > > > > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the
> > Hurst cycle?
> > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > From: "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 5:16 PM
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the
> > > > Hurst cycle?
> > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I have followed the discussion on
> > Hurst cycles
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > with
> > > > > > silence
> > > > > > > > but
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > now I believe it is time to speak
> > up. The Hurst
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > book
> > > > > > > > > > > > actually has
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > some very significant content however his
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > basic
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > premise has been proven to be
> > incorrect. Hurst
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > presents
> > > > > > > > several
> > > > > > > > > > > > > statements
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > with out verification. For example "
> > > > The impact of
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > wars,
> > > > > > > > global
> > > > > > > > > > > > > financial
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > crisis, and all other similar
> > events on market
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > price
> > > > > > action
> > > > > > > is
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > utterly negligible." It has been shown
> > > > through the
> > > > > > > > > > > > application of
> > > > > > > > > > > > > chaotic models
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > that these impulses do have an
> > impact although
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > they are
> > > > > > > > > > > > > limited in their
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > duration.
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The use of static cycles to forecast
> > > > future price
> > > > > > > > > > > > movement is also
> > > > > > > > > > > > > doomed
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > to
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > failure. There have been many attempts to
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > duplicate and
> > > > > > > > > > > > forecast
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > price action with composite static cycles
> > > > > > and all have
> > > > > > > failed
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > simply because
> > > > > > > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > market is not composed of static
> > > > cycles. Even an
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > attempt
> > > > > > to
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > determine
> > > > > > > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > current dominant cycles will fail because
> > > > > > the cycles
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > will
> > > > > > > > > > > > > change due to
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > lateset conditions. The new information may
> > > > > > or may not
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > be
> > > > > > in
> > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > direction
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > of the old cycles.A much more likely
> > > > > > composition, also
> > > > > > > > > > > > supported
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > by
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > studies
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > of chaotic models, is that the market
> > > > is composed
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > of
> > > > > > dynamic
> > > > > > > > > > > > > cycles with
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > diminishing amplitude. Since these
> > cycles are
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > always
> > > > > > > > > > > > changing, due
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > to
> > > > > > > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > latest impulse to impact the
> > market, they are
> > > > > > > > > > > > predictable only in
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > very
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > short term. The real value of Hurst's work
> > > > > > is to show
> > > > > > > > > > > > that profits
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > are maximized by short term
> > trading. Jim White
> > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > Jim,
> > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > >  I was going to stay out of this
> > until your last
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > statement
> > > > > > ".
> > > > > > > > The
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > real
> > > > > > > > > > > > > value
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > of Hurst's work is to show that profits are >
> > > > > > maximized
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > by
> > > > > > > short
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > term trading."  Most of the studies I have
> > > > > > seen indicate
> > > > > > that
> > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > more you
> > > > > > > > > > > > > trade
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > the greater your risk of ruin. Each time
> > > > you trade
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > you
> > > > > > > > > > > > take a risk.
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > The
> > > > > > > > > > > > > more
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > you trade, the greater the risk.  Very few of
> > > > > > the really
> > > > > > > > > > > > big traders
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > - investors such as George Soros or Warren
> > > > > > Buffett made
> > > > > > > > > > > > their money
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > doing
> > > > > > > > > > > > > alot
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > of short term trades. The big money is
> > > > made riding
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > > big moves and
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > not getting in and out. Some of the
> > > > saviest traders
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > I met
> > > > > > > > > > > > during my
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > Chicago
> > > > > > > > > > > > > days
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > made their big money on a few big moves.  The
> > > > > > short term
> > > > > > > > > > > > > trading was just
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > rent money.  I propose to ammend the above
> > > > > > statement to
> > > > > > read,
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > "...that brokers profits are maximized by
> > > > short term
> > > > > > trading."
> > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > Regards,
> > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > Norman
> > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > From: "Clyde Lee" <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 10:34 AM
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > cycle?
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > More likely the parameters for
> > > > generation of the
> > > > > > > > > > > > prediction of
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > the cycle were wrong.
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > We will have to wait for the
> > Centered Moving
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Averages
> > > > > > > > > > > > to catch
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > up with the data to make the kind
> > of judgment
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > you
> > > > > > > > > > > > have made with
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > insufficient data.
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Remember, the REALTIME values for the
> > > > > > Hurst channels
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > are
> > > > > > > an
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ATTEMPT to predict what the real values
> > > > > > of the CMAs
> > > > > > > > > > > > will be and
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > that ATTEMPT to estimate can be
> > > > really wrong at
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > times.
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Everyone needs to understand that the
> > > > attempt to
> > > > > > estimate
> > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > realtime CMA values is strictly that --
> > > > > > an attempt.
> > > > > > > > > > > > Currently
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > we are using classical Fourier
> > > > analysis and have
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > limited ourselves to only 3 components to
> > > > > > construct
> > > > > > > > > > > > envelopes.  We may
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > be using too many or too few -- at
> > > > this stage in
> > > > > > > > > > > > development I
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > do not have a good feeling of what it
> > > > takes to
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > better
> > > > > > > > > > > > match the
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > eventual values of the CMAs but you
> > > > can bet we
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > are
> > > > > > > > > > > > still working
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > on it.
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Clyde
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > > > > >  - - - - - - -
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Clyde Lee   Chairman/CEO          (Home
> > > > > > of SwingMachine)
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > SYTECH Corporation          email:
> > > > > > clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 7910 Westglen, Suite 105       Office:
> > > > > > (713) 783-9540
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Houston,  TX  77063               Fax:
> > > > > > (713) 783-1092
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Details at:
> > > > > > www.theswingmachine.com
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > > > > > - - - - - -
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - -
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > From: "bondo92677"
> > > > <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 12:25 PM
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Subject: [RT] What happened to the
> > > > Hurst cycle?
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I guess we fell into the 10% of the
> > > > time its
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > wrong.
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