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<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Norman
Winski
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, July 05, 2002 6:46 PM
Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE:
[RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
Clyde, That is a might big IF. I would
rather design a trading methodology thathas a large tolearnce factor <FONT
color=#ff0000>(ROBUSTNESS!) and the assumption my
trading stinks built intoit. That way, if my trading stinks, I can make
money. If my trading isslightly better than my low expections, I can make
lots of money etc. Themistake that many make is designing an approach that
demands perfect. Thisis like building a bridge or buidling with zero
tolerance. It is only amatter of time before the structure fails. How many
traders actually evercome even close to perfection let alone 70-80%
winning percentage? Thenthere is the win loss ratio to consider. Anyway,
it only takes one wrongassumption to send one into world of delusion. Back
in college my econ proftold a story about three guys, a biologists, an
engineer, and an economistship wrecked on a tropical island. "How will we
ever survive?", the questionwas posed. The biologists said that
using his unique knowledge of plant andanimal life, they would be able to
identify food sources on the island andeat for some time to come, until
help could arrive. The engineer said thathe would use tropical fruits to
extract citric acid, coconuts for a shell tomake batteries and a radio to
signal for help. The economists said, (beforecell phones) "GIVEN that we
have a telephone, why don't we call home and getsome help". The
point here is that telephones on deserted islands are notgiven and neither
are trading profits. You may assume yourself right out
ofexistance.Cheers,Norman----- Original
Message -----From: "Clyde Lee" <<A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx>To:
<<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Cc:
<<A
href="mailto:MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent:
Friday, July 05, 2002 5:27 PMSubject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT]
What happened to the Hurst cycle?> This subject is very
interesting to me.>> I just completed a "system" for
Tradestation which allows me to specify> the time and date at which a
transaction is to take place and then using> the internal capabilities
of TS compile statistics about such trades.>> This discussion
provided an opportunity to exercise this system and to> get a measure
of what the discussion was about.>> I ran 5 simulations in which
the pivots were picked using my LengthOfSwing> indicator with detection
lengths of 5, 8, 13, 21, and 34
barlengths.>> At each of these pivots TS was instructed to
buy or sell at the close ofthe> pivot day and statistics
gathered.>> Here is what I found.>>
Detection
Total
Total Trade>
Length
$Profit #Trades
AvgLength>>
5
$53.26
111
5>
8
$47.45
79
7>
13
$43.53
55
11>
21
$34.12
33
18>
34
$21.06
16
35>> Not much doubt that if you can trade perfectly then the
shorter the> length of the trade the more money you make over the same
period.>> The above is WITHOUT COMPOUNDING. If compounding
were> allowed then the difference is staggering.>> A look
at the attached graphics will add more information and a better> feel
for the trades that were used.>> Clyde>>> -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -> Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)> SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx> 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540> Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092> Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com> -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ->>
----- Original Message -----> From: "ira" <<A
href="mailto:irat@xxxxxxxxx";>irat@xxxxxxxxx>> To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
Sent: Friday, July 05, 2002 9:41 AM> Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was
RE: [RT] What happened to the Hurstcycle?>>> > I
don't look at average holding times. It strictly depends upon
whichset> > of time frames that I am trading. This morning
I would have been in at> 967> > and out at 980 and the trade
would have been for about 1/2 an hour. I> > usually wouldn't
trade the first or last 1/2 hour, but this trade was>
clear>>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send an
email to:> <A
href="mailto:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>>
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