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Clyde,
That is a might big IF. I would rather design a trading methodology that
has a large tolearnce factor and the assumption my trading stinks built into
it. That way, if my trading stinks, I can make money. If my trading is
slightly better than my low expections, I can make lots of money etc. The
mistake that many make is designing an approach that demands perfect. This
is like building a bridge or buidling with zero tolerance. It is only a
matter of time before the structure fails. How many traders actually ever
come even close to perfection let alone 70-80% winning percentage? Then
there is the win loss ratio to consider. Anyway, it only takes one wrong
assumption to send one into world of delusion. Back in college my econ prof
told a story about three guys, a biologists, an engineer, and an economist
ship wrecked on a tropical island. "How will we ever survive?", the question
was posed. The biologists said that using his unique knowledge of plant and
animal life, they would be able to identify food sources on the island and
eat for some time to come, until help could arrive. The engineer said that
he would use tropical fruits to extract citric acid, coconuts for a shell to
make batteries and a radio to signal for help. The economists said, (before
cell phones) "GIVEN that we have a telephone, why don't we call home and get
some help". The point here is that telephones on deserted islands are not
given and neither are trading profits. You may assume yourself right out of
existance.
Cheers,
Norman
----- Original Message -----
From: "Clyde Lee" <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, July 05, 2002 5:27 PM
Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> This subject is very interesting to me.
>
> I just completed a "system" for Tradestation which allows me to specify
> the time and date at which a transaction is to take place and then using
> the internal capabilities of TS compile statistics about such trades.
>
> This discussion provided an opportunity to exercise this system and to
> get a measure of what the discussion was about.
>
> I ran 5 simulations in which the pivots were picked using my LengthOfSwing
> indicator with detection lengths of 5, 8, 13, 21, and 34 bar
lengths.
>
> At each of these pivots TS was instructed to buy or sell at the close of
the
> pivot day and statistics gathered.
>
> Here is what I found.
>
> Detection Total Total Trade
> Length $Profit #Trades AvgLength
>
> 5 $53.26 111 5
> 8 $47.45 79 7
> 13 $43.53 55 11
> 21 $34.12 33 18
> 34 $21.06 16 35
>
> Not much doubt that if you can trade perfectly then the shorter the
> length of the trade the more money you make over the same period.
>
> The above is WITHOUT COMPOUNDING. If compounding were
> allowed then the difference is staggering.
>
> A look at the attached graphics will add more information and a better
> feel for the trades that were used.
>
> Clyde
>
>
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "ira" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, July 05, 2002 9:41 AM
> Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What happened to the Hurst
cycle?
>
>
> > I don't look at average holding times. It strictly depends upon which
set
> > of time frames that I am trading. This morning I would have been in at
> 967
> > and out at 980 and the trade would have been for about 1/2 an hour. I
> > usually wouldn't trade the first or last 1/2 hour, but this trade was
> clear
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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>
>
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