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Hi
David,
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>
Whats wrong with the
move in Coffee? Just checked the July contract....a nice 'abc' Flat correction
stopping precisely
at the 61.8% retracement point after trending down so smoothly in the 1st
half
of June.
Obviously a lot of stops were triggered when the well defined 3 month downtrend
line broke,
but so what?
One day break doesn't make for a valid break
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Adrian
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style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: David Hunt
[mailto:david@xxxxxxxxxxxx] Sent: Friday, 5 July 2002 10:03
AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: [RT] Holding
Period
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width="100%">
I think Ira is talking about NY commodities markets.
Look what they did in Coffee the last few days
and you will see what he means.
Warmest
Regards
David
Hunt________________________________
<A
href="http://www.adest.com.au";>www.adest.com.au
Phone:
Australia: (02) 9527
4690
Int: +
61 2 9527 4690
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USA : + 1 312 577
0491________________________________
-------Original
Message-------
From: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Friday, July
05, 2002 09:33:10 AM
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] Digest
Number 994
So Ira, are you talking E-mini futures here, QQQ's, or what ?All
have good liquidity.> -----Original Message----->
From: ira [<A
href="mailto:irat@xxxxxxxxx";>mailto:irat@xxxxxxxxx]> Sent:
Thursday, July 04, 2002 2:37 PM> To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What happened to the
Hurst> cycle?>>> My system has an 80%
probability for 1/1 return, 70% for 2/1 and> 60% for 3/1>
and it works in any time frame so commissions and operating costs
become> negligible. As for slippage I have found very little in
highly liquid> markets when trading shorter time frames. I very
seldom trade the NY> markets so rip offs aren't a factor. Of
course there is always that 3%> factor and only a hedge can cover
that. If you don't carry over> night, then> gap openings
don't become a factor and if one carries overnight and uses>
options then the risk is defined and there is no slippage. Ira>
----- Original Message -----> From: "Norman Winski" <<A
href="mailto:nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2002 7:32 AM> Subject: Re: HOLDING
PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What happened to the> Hurst
cycle?>>> > Ira,> >> >
Commisions aren't the only factor in calculating transaction>
costs. There> > is slippage and various overhead charges such
as office, computer, data,> all> > of which go up in
cost with the shorter time frame.> >> > One way to
look at this is profitability frequency. Let's say you are> >
trading S&P.> > If you can make $10 more than five time
more often that you can> make $50,> > then it is
probably better to shoot for the $10. On the other> hand, if
$!0> > occurs less than 1/5 of the time that $50 does, then
you should> shoot for> > the $50. Ideally, one could
put this on a distribution curve> and then one> >
should strive to get to the middle of the curve where the frequency
of> > dollars earned is highest.> >> >
Cheers,> >> > Norman Your use of Yahoo!
Groups is subject to> > > > > > > <A
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use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to <A
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2Date: Thu, 4 Jul 2002 18:23:14 -0400It's Phenomenal
to me that Smith Barney did not "coach" him beforehand.....knowing FULL
WELL that an investigation by reports would be likely.More poor
management in the investment biz.-----Original Message-----From:
Ray Raffurty [<A
href="mailto:r.raffurty@xxxxxxxx";>mailto:r.raffurty@xxxxxxxx]Sent:
Thursday, July 04, 2002 10:39 AMTo: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject:
Re: [RT] Jack Grubman of Smith Barney - as seen on
CNBC...The moral to that is: If anyone ever sticks a
microphone in your face, stand there and answer all their questions even
if the answer is "I can't answer that". Basically bore them to death and
they will go away.Good luck and good trading,Ray
Raffurty----- Original Message ----- From: M. Simms
To: RealtradersList Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 11:20
AMSubject: [RT] Jack Grubman of Smith Barney - as seen on
CNBC...OMIGOSH - CNBC keeps playing that street interview
over and over again...and man, does it ever make Grubman look
bad...I mean the guy actually LOOKS sleezy !!It's not going to
help his chances in court...I understand jail-time is likely for him
!!!What was amazing, is that he did not portray himself as very
intelligent,nor polished.If this gets viewed much, *ALL*
Wallstreet analysts are now in "dirt" statuswith the investing
public.Jack's done more to discredit analysts in that 5 minute
interview as anyanalyst has done in the past 5
years.To unsubscribe from this group, send an
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[This message contained
attachments]________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Message:
3Date: Thu, 4 Jul 2002 18:25:49 -0400From: "Norman Winski"
<<A
href="mailto:nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Subject:
Re: What happened to the Hurst cycle?M,Which LW big
winnings are you referring? Is this the how I made a millionbeing
long in one account and short in the other and only reporting
thewinning trades episode? The NFA found this so hilarious they gave
him a lifetime vacation.Cheers,Norman-----
Original Message -----From: "M. Simms" <<A
href="mailto:prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>To:
<<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent:
Thursday, July 04, 2002 6:15 PMSubject: RE: [RT] What happened to
the Hurst cycle?> Funny you should mention that:>
"Theoretically your best bet (apart from not betting) is to bet your
whole> bank in the first bet then walk away. Pretty boring
eh"> Two famous traders have done this, but did not walk
away:> Larry Williams and Louis Borsellino.>>
Larry's big winnings took over 1 year.> Louis's big winnings took
about 1 HOUR.>>> > -----Original
Message-----> > From: Adrian Pitt [<A
href="mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]>
> Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2002 9:24 AM> > T > Subject:
RE: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?> >>
>> >> > Norman,> >> > Your
right on all counts :-) I've encountered very few people who
truly> >> > Understand risk in the total sense.
There are so many aspects and> > nuances >> >
> Norman> > >> > > P.S. I started trading
in 1972. I ain't smart enought to> > > figure out how many
years that is. Maybe you can?> > > >
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