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My least wish is to become embroiled in a urinating contest. At the risk of
having said that perhaps both Norman AND Adrian are correct and its just as
simple as the following description.
IF one can consistently capture the 'short term' fluctuations trading a
profitable system then; for that individual; short term trading fluctuations
are not random.
I don't 'think' that 'most' traders can do that consistently. Some
definitely can do that however. We just never hear about them for obvious
reasons.
It is my experience (because I personally have not found a way to accurately
and consistently trade short term turning points as they relate to market
entries and exits) that short term market fluctuations are 'random'. I have
adopted that belief as it mirrors Dow comments years ago that the short term
is random because it can be manipulated.
So just maybe both Adrian and Norm are correct?
chas
====
----- Original Message -----
From: Norman Winski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2002 7:56 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2002 7:55 AM
> Subject: RE: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
>
>
> > Norman,,
> >
> > DON'T YOU READ???? Jim mentioned nothing of the random nature of
> > markets!!!!!
> > He was referring to the compounding of returns and its benefits
> > highlighted in a book CALLED
> > "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"
> >
> > For someone who has been trading for over 20 years SURELY you know the
> > markets aren't random?
> > The more you write the less interested I become in finding out about
> > the material you offer.
> >
> > Adrian,
>
> I can't believe you would even consider investigating material from an
> imbecile like me.
> How smart does that make you? Seriously, your token carrot is totally BS.
> If you were at all interested, you would have come to see me when I was
> lecturing in your neighborhood last year. My guess is that you wouldn't be
> so upset if I didn't hit a nerve about short term trading. Maybe you are
> among the majority of short term traders who are addicted to trading and
> don't want to hear anything negative that may make you face your problem?
I
> have known several brilliant traders who died in their 40s because they
were
> trading addicts. It's a serious problem for some. Those with the problem
are
> usually in denial and don't want to hear anything that would pop their
> bubble or stop the adrenaline rush. Well, thanks for freeing me to say
> anything I want. Now that I am an imbecile, it really doesn't matter what
I
> say. You should probably put me on autodelete.
>
> Cheers,
>
> Norman
>
>
>
>
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Norman Winski [mailto:nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > Sent: Thursday, 4 July 2002 7:56 AM
> > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 5:51 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> > >
> > >
> > > > Unfortunately Norman, the data does not agree. Research has
> > > shown tha
> > > > ROI decreases with holding period - so taking quick profits and
> > > > compounding
> > > the
> > > > results is the way to maximize profits. The data is sighted in "A
> > > > Random Walk Down Wall Street", page 404. Of course you
> > > need a trading
> > > methodology
> > > > to reliably capture the short term moves.
> > > > Jim,
> > >
> > > Hasn't the Random Walk theory been disproven? I think there
> > > has since been a sequel to the book you mentioned that
> > > disproves the Random Walk theory.
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > >
> > > Norman
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 2:38 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 5:16 PM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > I have followed the discussion on Hurst cycles with silence but
> > > > > > now I believe it is time to speak up. The Hurst book
> > > actually has
> > > > > > some very significant content however his
> > > > > basic
> > > > > > premise has been proven to be incorrect. Hurst presents several
> > > > statements
> > > > > > with out verification. For example " The impact of wars, global
> > > > financial
> > > > > > crisis, and all other similar events on market price action is
> > > > > > utterly negligible." It has been shown through the
> > > application of
> > > > > > chaotic
> > > models
> > > > > > that these impulses do have an impact although they are
> > > limited in
> > > their
> > > > > > duration.
> > > > > > The use of static cycles to forecast future price
> > > movement is also
> > > > doomed
> > > > > to
> > > > > > failure. There have been many attempts to duplicate and
> > > forecast
> > > > > > price action with composite static cycles and all have failed
> > > > > > simply because
> > > > the
> > > > > > market is not composed of static cycles. Even an attempt to
> > > > > > determine
> > > > the
> > > > > > current dominant cycles will fail because the cycles
> > > will change
> > > > > > due
> > > to
> > > > > > lateset conditions. The new information may or may not be in the
> > > > direction
> > > > > > of the old cycles.A much more likely composition, also
> > > supported
> > > > > > by
> > > > > studies
> > > > > > of chaotic models, is that the market is composed of dynamic
> > > > > > cycles
> > > with
> > > > > > diminishing amplitude. Since these cycles are always
> > > changing, due
> > > > > > to
> > > > the
> > > > > > latest impulse to impact the market, they are
> > > predictable only in
> > > > > > the
> > > > very
> > > > > > short term. The real value of Hurst's work is to show
> > > that profits
> > > > > > are maximized by short term trading. Jim White
> > > > >
> > > > > Jim,
> > > > >
> > > > > I was going to stay out of this until your last statement ". The
> > > > > real
> > > > value
> > > > > of Hurst's work is to show that profits are > maximized by short
> > > > > term trading." Most of the studies I have seen indicate that the
> > > > > more you
> > > > trade
> > > > > the greater your risk of ruin. Each time you trade you
> > > take a risk.
> > > > > The
> > > > more
> > > > > you trade, the greater the risk. Very few of the really
> > > big traders
> > > > > - investors such as George Soros or Warren Buffett made
> > > their money
> > > > > doing
> > > > alot
> > > > > of short term trades. The big money is made riding the
> > > big moves and
> > > > > not getting in and out. Some of the saviest traders I met
> > > during my
> > > > > Chicago
> > > > days
> > > > > made their big money on a few big moves. The short term
> > > trading was
> > > just
> > > > > rent money. I propose to ammend the above statement to read,
> > > > > "...that brokers profits are maximized by short term trading."
> > > > >
> > > > > Regards,
> > > > >
> > > > > Norman
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