|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Ira,
Commisions aren't the only factor in calculating transaction costs. There
is slippage and various overhead charges such as office, computer, data, all
of which go up in cost with the shorter time frame.
One way to look at this is profitability frequency. Let's say you are
trading S&P.
If you can make $10 more than five time more often that you can make $50,
then it is probably better to shoot for the $10. On the other hand, if $!0
occurs less than 1/5 of the time that $50 does, then you should shoot for
the $50. Ideally, one could put this on a distribution curve and then one
should strive to get to the middle of the curve where the frequency of
dollars earned is highest.
Cheers,
Norman
----- Original Message -----
From: "ira" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2002 9:52 AM
Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> At $5 for stock trades up to 5000 shares and $6-$8 a round turn on
futures
> it doesn't take much to make a profit and even less to just break even.
> Commissions aren't the factor that they used to be. Even options
> commissions are down to a nominal amount now. Ira
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2002 6:41 AM
> Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What happened to the Hurst
cycle?
>
>
> > Ira,
> >
> > Let's not forget those transaction costs. They can make all the
> difference
> > between a profitable and losing method.
> >
> > Cheers,
> >
> > Norman
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "ira" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2002 9:38 AM
> > Subject: Re: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What happened to the Hurst
> cycle?
> >
> >
> > > Trading time frames is an interesting question as is the frequency of
> > > trading. If I posted 20 charts with the header, prices and time
missing
> > > from the 3 sides of the chart, I would defy anyone to tell me whether
> the
> > > charts are daily, weekly or 3 min charts. A bar is a bar is a bar. No
> > > matter what system you use, if is governed by the bars action, whether
> you
> > > are using highs, lows, closes, or a combination of the three and a
> > divisor,
> > > it is still price action. So if a system is viable it should work on
> any
> > > time frame. Let us leave out planetary influences as I am not
conversant
> > > enough in that area to make an argument one way or the other, although
> the
> > > Delta system has a intra day function. If all charts are the same as
> far
> > > as content is concerned then the degree of risk would decrease with
the
> > > reduction in time frames. The price range of a bar on a weekly chart
> > should
> > > be greater then that on a daily chart and that on a daily chart should
> be
> > > greater then that on a 60 min. chart, etc., all the way down to a nano
> > > second chart. If price range is reduced, then risk is reduced, as a
> stop
> > > governed by price rather then pain would be actuated sooner. A stop
on
> a
> > > daily chart might be 10 points where the stop on a 3 min chart could
be
> > 1/2
> > > a point. Trading is all about volatility, price range, over a
specific
> > > period of time. Some items have to be traded over an extended period
> > > because of low volatility yet consistent movement in one direction.
> Others
> > > can be traded very easily on a 1 minute chart. both with the same
degree
> > of
> > > risk because the price range of the bars is comparable. A stock could
> move
> > > a 1/2 a point a day for $50 while the S&P moves 1/2 point a tick for
> $125
> > > and grains a penny for $50. So if you are trading any system that is
> > > governed by price movement whether it be Gann, Eliot, Hurst, Fib.
> numbers
> > > then risk should be reduced as you step down in time frames and the
> > > compounding effect increased as the number of cycles, movements of
price
> > > action up and down, occur more frequently. So if the bars, as an
> example,
> > > are cycling from low to low every 10 bars, then there would be 2
trades
> > > every 30 minutes on a 3 min. chart and every 10 days on a daily chart.
> > > There would be one trend trade and one contra trend trade. Granted
that
> > > this is all dependent upon sufficient volatility to justify the trade,
> but
> > > the trades would be there. And yes, my system works in all time
frames
> > > with varying degrees of risk, but the same degree of probability. Ira
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2002 5:02 AM
> > > Subject: RE: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What happened to the Hurst
> > cycle?
> > >
> > >
> > > > M. Simms,
> > > >
> > > > The most optimal trading period in theory is the distance between
> ticks.
> > > >
> > > > If you had a system which could trade from tick to tic and your
costs
> > > > were less than one tick...
> > > > And you could trade unlimited volume..then in time you would own the
> > > > universe.
> > > >
> > > > Now back to reality....the optimum time period all depends on your
> > > > system. Simple as that.
> > > > A floor trader can compound returns far quicker than any of us...but
> > > > like any trader, that
> > > > isn't the real problem..the problem is you will run into difficulty
> > > > getting filled with low slippage.
> > > > Ultimately it ALWAYS becomes a trade-off of trying to trade as short
a
> > > > time as possible to maximise compounding benefits but at the same
> time,
> > > > long enough that you can actually keep slippage in check so the
> systems
> > > > still keeps working. Once again, it all comes down to the system you
> > > > decide to use.
> > > > Answering which is the best system is a complex question..one best
> dealt
> > > > with by reading Ralph Vinces books.
> > > >
> > > > Adrian
> > > >
> > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > From: M. Simms [mailto:prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > > > Sent: Thursday, 4 July 2002 8:41 AM
> > > > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > Cc: Ed Kiers
> > > > > Subject: HOLDING PERIOD...was RE: [RT] What happened to the
> > > > > Hurst cycle?
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Jim - do you have any further research references that
> > > > > indicate : EXACTLY HOW SHORT OF A HOLDING PERIOD is optimal ?
> > > > >
> > > > > and of course, based on that HOLDING PERIOD, which should be
> > > > > equivalent to the AVG. LENGTH OF TRADE, what is the BAR
> > > > > INTERVAL that is best for that length. Once this is
> > > > > determined, then implied is the vital LENGTH OF TRADE to BAR
> > > > > INTERVAL ratio.
> > > > >
> > > > > What I am getting at is this:
> > > > > if your trades are averaging 21 trading hours or so,
> > > > > should the trader be using 15 min, 30 min, 1 hour, bars, or which
?
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > From: Jim White [mailto:jwhite43@xxxxxxx]
> > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 5:51 PM
> > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Unfortunately Norman, the data does not agree. Research has
> > > > > shown tha
> > > > > > ROI decreases with holding period - so taking quick profits and
> > > > > > compounding the results is the way to maximize profits. The data
> is
> > > > > > sighted in "A Random Walk Down Wall Street", page 404. Of
> > > > > course you
> > > > > > need a trading methodology
> > > > > > to reliably capture the short term moves.
> > > > > > Jim
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 2:38 PM
> > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > From: "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 5:16 PM
> > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > I have followed the discussion on Hurst cycles with silence
> but
> > > > > > > > now I believe it is time to speak up. The Hurst book
> > > > > actually has
> > > > > > > > some very significant content however his
> > > > > > > basic
> > > > > > > > premise has been proven to be incorrect. Hurst presents
> several
> > > > > > statements
> > > > > > > > with out verification. For example " The impact of wars,
> global
> > > > > > financial
> > > > > > > > crisis, and all other similar events on market price action
is
> > > > > > > > utterly negligible." It has been shown through the
> > > > > application of
> > > > > > chaotic models
> > > > > > > > that these impulses do have an impact although they are
> > > > > > limited in their
> > > > > > > > duration.
> > > > > > > > The use of static cycles to forecast future price
> > > > > movement is also
> > > > > > doomed
> > > > > > > to
> > > > > > > > failure. There have been many attempts to duplicate and
> > > > > forecast
> > > > > > > > price action with composite static cycles and all have
failed
> > > > > > > > simply because
> > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > market is not composed of static cycles. Even an attempt to
> > > > > > > > determine
> > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > current dominant cycles will fail because the cycles will
> > > > > > change due to
> > > > > > > > lateset conditions. The new information may or may not be in
> the
> > > > > > direction
> > > > > > > > of the old cycles.A much more likely composition, also
> > > > > supported
> > > > > > > > by
> > > > > > > studies
> > > > > > > > of chaotic models, is that the market is composed of dynamic
> > > > > > cycles with
> > > > > > > > diminishing amplitude. Since these cycles are always
> > > > > changing, due
> > > > > > > > to
> > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > latest impulse to impact the market, they are
> > > > > predictable only in
> > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > very
> > > > > > > > short term. The real value of Hurst's work is to show
> > > > > that profits
> > > > > > > > are maximized by short term trading. Jim White
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Jim,
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > I was going to stay out of this until your last statement ".
> The
> > > > > > > real
> > > > > > value
> > > > > > > of Hurst's work is to show that profits are > maximized by
short
> > > > > > > term trading." Most of the studies I have seen indicate that
> the
> > > > > > > more you
> > > > > > trade
> > > > > > > the greater your risk of ruin. Each time you trade you
> > > > > take a risk.
> > > > > > > The
> > > > > > more
> > > > > > > you trade, the greater the risk. Very few of the really
> > > > > big traders
> > > > > > > - investors such as George Soros or Warren Buffett made
> > > > > their money
> > > > > > > doing
> > > > > > alot
> > > > > > > of short term trades. The big money is made riding the
> > > > > big moves and
> > > > > > > not getting in and out. Some of the saviest traders I met
> > > > > during my
> > > > > > > Chicago
> > > > > > days
> > > > > > > made their big money on a few big moves. The short term
> > > > > > trading was just
> > > > > > > rent money. I propose to ammend the above statement to read,
> > > > > > > "...that brokers profits are maximized by short term trading."
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Regards,
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Norman
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > From: "Clyde Lee" <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 10:34 AM
> > > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > More likely the parameters for generation of the
> > > > > prediction of
> > > > > > > > > the cycle were wrong.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > We will have to wait for the Centered Moving Averages
> > > > > to catch
> > > > > > > > > up with the data to make the kind of judgment you
> > > > > have made with
> > > > > > > > > insufficient data.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Remember, the REALTIME values for the Hurst channels are
an
> > > > > > > > > ATTEMPT to predict what the real values of the CMAs
> > > > > will be and
> > > > > > > > > that ATTEMPT to estimate can be really wrong at times.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Everyone needs to understand that the attempt to estimate
> the
> > > > > > > > > realtime CMA values is strictly that -- an attempt.
> > > > > Currently
> > > > > > > > > we are using classical Fourier analysis and have limited
> > > > > > > > > ourselves to only 3 components to construct
> > > > > envelopes. We may
> > > > > > > > > be using too many or too few -- at this stage in
> > > > > development I
> > > > > > > > > do not have a good feeling of what it takes to better
> > > > > match the
> > > > > > > > > eventual values of the CMAs but you can bet we are
> > > > > still working
> > > > > > > > > on it.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Clyde
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > > > > > > > > Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> > > > > > > > > SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > > > > 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> > > > > > > > > Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> > > > > > > > > Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
> > > > > > > > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > > From: "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 12:25 PM
> > > > > > > > > Subject: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > I guess we fell into the 10% of the time its wrong.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > > > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > > > > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > > > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > To unsubscribe from
> > > > > this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Will You Find True Love?
Will You Meet the One?
Free Love Reading by phone!
http://us.click.yahoo.com/ztNCyD/zDLEAA/Ey.GAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|