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That w.forecasts.org chart for the djia has month end June closing of 10290
+,-1 std of 188. In otherwords they are saying there is a 68% probability
of the djia being between 10102 and 10478 on June 28 close. Also those
figures are saying there is a 95% probability of the djia being between 9914
and 10666. The djia closed last week at 9471 quite a ways below even
their - 2 std dev level, but the month end is not here yet so they can't be
counted out just yet. Its just that a greater than 1 std dev move means
something is afoot, and in this case running with the cash.
>From the Hurst view, assuming this amaturish setup is correct:
Looking ahead two weeks to June 28th, the Hurst cycle extensions see:
Long cycle support at 9200
Short cycle support at 9321.01 and resistance at 10078.62 {cyan and magenta
channel have the tighter fit to price)
Intermediate cycle support at 9634.88 and resistance at10304.08
Friday June 14 did generate a "band edge" trade per Clyde on the dailies and
also on the attached weekly. There is something intuitive that says to be
careful of an edge trade when the bands are still sloping downward, but
looking backwards such trades have netted some sizeable points when the
Stochastic Adaptive is below 20. Perhaps the Andrews/Babson lines provide
additional clues, first a bounce up off the yellow, then a downturn on the
blue, i.e. a triangle or bearish flag formation the next two weeks.
bobr
----- Original Message -----
From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
To: <MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, June 16, 2002 9:20 AM
Subject: [MedianLine] Market and Stock Predictability
>
> I have watched with great interest the excellent programming of Clyde
> along with the numerous supportive comments of the Hurst Chammel work.
> I am 100% behind such efforts and wish only to add to it.It is a
> noble work in process.
>
> There are similar Fundamental sites which purport to have high
> predictability success. Just one such is http://www.forecasts.org/
> This takes into consideration at least 10 Economic Indicaters.It
> gives standard deviation from actual.Perhaps such fundamentals could
> add a Techno-Fundamental approach.
>
> While the Hurst scenario offers promise, my concern is that the last
> S&P "signal" given was far off the mark meaning one never knows when
> that alleged 1 in 10 against you will hit or its frequency. Also the
> absence of a specific price but a boxed range is another area for
> misinterpretation.With a pure technical system, one generally looks
> for a price to go short or long. Can this be done with this system or
> method? I do not know and only seek constructive feedback.The current
> Dow possible "signal" offers the same issues. I personally read it as
> a probable long "signal" given past experience.
>
> I admit that one should drink deeply from the "Pyrean Springs" or not
> drink at all...and I have certainly not dug as deeply by my own
> admission as others.But that does not mean my comments are meant
> derrogatorily or off the wall.
>
> I am just seeking the same as we all are...something to help call the
> market.
>
> John
>
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