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Bond target minimum is now 104-13, likely higher.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; "Realtraders"
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, June 13, 2002 11:46 AM
Subject: Re: [gannsghost] Which Way Bonds?
> Sticking my neck out here a bit, however my work is suggesting that bonds
> will move a bit higher ... specifically to the 103-24 area. While AGet
> counts are displayed on the chart, I prefer my own counts which are
labeled
> W.A through W.C. The internal structure of the hourly and fifteen minute
> charts appear to support the idea that W.C is not yet complete. Also of
note
> is that a cup and handle, which was forming on the weekly yield chart,
> appears to be breaking down. Finally, CRB/US Weekly appears to be rolling
> over. My own view is that bonds will rally as equities roll over into a
> final low (and corresponding high in bonds) on or before 10July. Aside
from
> unmet price targets in equities, I am not yet satisfied with Wednesday's
> high in VIX.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "topos8" <topos8@xxxxxxx>
> To: <gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, June 13, 2002 11:13 AM
> Subject: [gannsghost] Which Way Bonds?
>
>
> > Bruce and I are on opposite sides of bond boulevard so I just wanted
> > to reiterate my views on bonds. These are the result of my price -
> > square - time calculations using the square of 9.
> >
> > First, I am convinced the bonds are in a bear market which began last
> > November 1 at 112-18 (Dec '01 contract)(see my post GG #7510 of
> > October 31, 2001). My current estimate for the ultimate low is the 92-
> > 94 range.
> >
> > I have attempted to pick the tops of the big corrective rallies we
> > have had since November 1. On February 22 (GG#9410)(September '02
> > contract high 102-26), May 1 (GG#11547)(September '02 contract high
> > 101-30) and May 31 (GG#12590) (September '02 contract high 101-21) I
> > said that the rally top had occured and that a move to new lows for
> > the bear market would begin.
> >
> > The February 22 and May 1 calls were followed by big breaks but each
> > of these ended at a higher low (although the cash market low on March
> > 15 was in fact lower than its December 18 low). Only a 2 day break
> > followed my May 31 message.
> >
> > Today the September contract traded as high as 102-30, just a tad
> > above its February 22 top, and the cash market is still below its
> > February top. I think that the rally is over and that we are now
> > headed down about 10 points in the bond futures over the next few
> > months.
> >
> > Carl
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
> >
>
>
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>
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>
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