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Andrew and I seem to be trading Fibs in a similar way.
Fibs work extremely well! But in the right context. They are
amazingly accurate sometimes.
Fibs are not the magical tool that many seek. Traders can't blindly
enter
at Fib levels. Fibs are not a magical up-arrow-down-arrow
turn-them-on-sit-back-and-make-money-indicator. It takes brains.
In that respect, they are like all indicators. If you take any one
indicator
and try to prove whether it alone is trade-able, you end up saying
that
the indicator works sometimes and not others. Fibs are the same.
The skill is in knowing when Fibs are more likely to predict a
turning point
and when they are not.. And it does take skill and experience.
Using Fibs on a very basic level does help, but do not enter or exit
purely
on that basis. As with any indicator, doing so can damage your
trading
account.
-Neal.
At 02:36 PM 4/15/2002 -0400, you wrote:
I
think it's impossible to program for all the reasons you stated. In many
cases the drawing of a Fib line can be semi-discretionary (for me at
least). Which pivot do you draw it from? I try to avoid spike bars,
others don't. Furthermore, I think there needs to be a solid context to
the drawing of a Fib line. I don't measure every swing and enter on a Fib
retracement - my pockets aren't that deep! The context for me is a
non-Fib based signal, or confluence between a Fib line and some other
indicator. At that stage I'll use Fib to enter on a pullback and place a
Fib stop at the same time, always mindful of the fact that a buy signal
might be negated by price hitting a strong resistance point before I get
filled.
My point is that unless you program
something like this, then you have no right to claim that your
programmatic analysis is conclusive proof that Fib doesn't work. It only
proves that it's harder to program than people might think.
As for giving it a try, I'm afraid that
there's too much discretion in what I do, and not enough years left in
which to do it. :)
Andrew
----- Original Message -----
From: ztrader
To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, April 15, 2002 11:08 AM
Subject: [RT] Programming Fibs
On Sunday, April 14, 2002, 5:45:36 PM, Andrew Nopper wrote:
AN> a theory of mine which states that Fib turning points can not be
AN> programmed
Why is that? Perhaps the trader is unable (most likely) or unwilling
to say what is **really** done. It is often very difficult to
determine what a trader **really** does - many things are "obvious",
"unconscious", "intuitive", etc - and are not included in the
description.
I believe [there's that word again :-)] (1) that it is possible to
program a clear, exact, complete, and accurate description of a
traders action, and (2) the biggest problem is to get an adequate
description from the trader.
Wanna give it a try? :-)
ztrader
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