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On Monday, April 15, 2002, 7:29:52 PM, Earl Adamy wrote:
EA> If I'm not mistaken, there are two belief sets here:
EA> 1) Fibs have no statistical relevance to system trading.
EA> 2) Fibs are an extremely useful tool in discretionary trading.
I'm in a third camp - fibs might be analyzed if we can come up with
the proper model.
EA> While discretionary traders can offer examples, I see no way in which
EA> discretionary can offer "proof" due to the complexities of mechanizing a
EA> process which is not based on absolute, quantifiable criteria.
I agree. It seems more likely to me that discretionary traders are
more 'intuitive' and may not have the mind set, or perhaps even the
ability, to do an analysis to prove something mathematically,
particularly if it's complex. For that reason, I don't see them coming
up with an analytical result.
Quants are more likely to be comfortable with mathematical analyses,
and able to do them. But, the analysis must fit the problem well.
Otherwise, 'garbage in, garbage out'. They need a good model.
I have been trying to build a bridge between the two camps. If, by
discussion, I can 'feed back' discretionary ideas in a math/logic
form, and have them agree, then we can proceed toward building an
adequate model. The third camp.
ztrader
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